New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Investore (IPL) has announced the acquisition of Bunnings New Lynn, consistent with its strategy to reduce supermarket exposure and secure leases with more fixed rental growth.</li><li>Gearing has increased to approximately 41.1%, above the target range, but the company plans to fund this through non-core asset sales and continue remixing the portfolio over the next 12-24 months.</li><li>IPL is trading at a -28% discount to its book value, with a market-implied portfolio cap rate of 7.6%.</li></ul>

Investore (IPL) has announced the acquisition of Bunnings New Lynn, consistent with its strategy to reduce supermarket exposure and secure leases with more fixed rental growth.Gearing has increased to approximately 41.1%, above the target range, but the company plans to fund this through non-core asset sales and continue remixing the portfolio over the next 12-24 months.IPL is trading at a -28% discount to its book value, with a market-implied portfolio cap rate of 7.6%.

<ul><li>Investore (IPL) reported a stable result with like-for-like rental growth and development completions offset by net-asset divestments and higher interest and tax costs.</li><li>FY26 DPS guidance was flat on the prior year, reflecting conservatism given upcoming portfolio-remixing activity, elevated maintenance capex, and eventual roll-off of low fixed-interest rates.</li><li>IPL is trading at a 12-month forward gross yield of 8.4% and price to AFFO of 18x, with a neutral sentiment.</li></ul>

Investore (IPL) reported a stable result with like-for-like rental growth and development completions offset by net-asset divestments and higher interest and tax costs.FY26 DPS guidance was flat on the prior year, reflecting conservatism given upcoming portfolio-remixing activity, elevated maintenance capex, and eventual roll-off of low fixed-interest rates.IPL is trading at a 12-month forward gross yield of 8.4% and price to AFFO of 18x, with a neutral sentiment.

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Holdco dispersion persists: GBL simplifies and strengthens liquidity yet trades at –30.5%; Industrivärden and Investor remain unusually tight; Heineken Holding stable in its post-Covid range.</li>
<li>Porsche SE’s ~30% discount aligns with “no-liability” scenarios, while Rio Tinto’s DLC premium stays structurally elevated, leaving convergence trades dependent on governance catalysts rather than statistical mean reversion.</li>
<li>Vivendi’s discount widened to 42% on legal timing noise; AMF logic unchanged. Optionality rebuilt, making Vivendi the most asymmetric setup in the current holdco universe.</li>
</ul>


Holdco dispersion persists: GBL simplifies and strengthens liquidity yet trades at –30.5%; Industrivärden and Investor remain unusually tight; Heineken Holding stable in its post-Covid range.
Porsche SE’s ~30% discount aligns with “no-liability” scenarios, while Rio Tinto’s DLC premium stays structurally elevated, leaving convergence trades dependent on governance catalysts rather than statistical mean reversion.
Vivendi’s discount widened to 42% on legal timing noise; AMF logic unchanged. Optionality rebuilt, making Vivendi the most asymmetric setup in the current holdco universe.


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: November 2025 Report

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher, ORTEX

Dimitris Ioannidis

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/koninklijke-vopak-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21144:1" rel="noopener">Koninklijke Vopak Nv (VPK NA)</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shaftesbury-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22140:1" rel="noopener">Shaftesbury PLC (SHB LN)</a> are currently passing the entry rank of SXXP. Forecasted passive fund demands are $22m-$34m and 3-5 ADV. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indivior-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21996:1" rel="noopener">Indivior PLC (INDV LN)</a> is currently the only one below the exit rank of SXXP. Forecasted passive fund supply is $11.5m and 1.4 ADV.</li>
<li>'Most liquid stock' criterion can cause a 'switch' of share lines in the index as it happened with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chocoladefabriken-lindt-spru-d0c11ab4-21ec-491e-9b8f-44b06e078529" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24963:1" rel="noopener">Lindt (LISP SW)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chocoladefabriken-lindt-sprungli" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22420:1" rel="noopener">Lindt (LISN SW)</a> in September 2022. </li>
</ul>



Koninklijke Vopak Nv (VPK NA) &amp; Shaftesbury PLC (SHB LN) are currently passing the entry rank of SXXP. Forecasted passive fund demands are $22m-$34m and 3-5 ADV. 

Indivior PLC (INDV LN) is currently the only one below the exit rank of SXXP. Forecasted passive fund supply is $11.5m and 1.4 ADV.
'Most liquid stock' criterion can cause a 'switch' of share lines in the index as it happened with Lindt (LISP SW) and Lindt (LISN SW) in September 2022. 


STOXX 600: First September Forecasts for Europe and Eurozone

<ul>
<li>Since mid-November, spreads have generally widened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (9 have tightened, 10 widened).</li>
<li>Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Media-for-Europe, Sixt, Volkswagen (still the most interesting situation).</li>
<li>Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs, Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-November, spreads have generally widened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (9 have tightened, 10 widened).
Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Media-for-Europe, Sixt, Volkswagen (still the most interesting situation).
Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs, Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: December‘23 Report

Sweden

Investor AB is an industrial holding company. The Company owns significant shareholdings in major public multinational companies and conducts private equity activities in Europe, North America, and Asia. Investor takes an active ownership role in many of the companies it owns.

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Investor (INVEA SS)

Investore Some More DIY

Investore (IPL) has announced the acquisition of Bunnings New Lynn, consistent with its strategy to reduce supermarket exposure and secure leases...

Forsyth Barr

Investore FY25 Result—Pic'n Mix

Investore (IPL) reported a stable result with like-for-like rental growth and development completions offset by net-asset divestments and higher...

Forsyth Barr

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: November 2025 Report

Holdco discounts diverged in November: GBL strengthens its case, Investor stays rich, Porsche SE sits at structural levels, Vivendi’s setback...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

STOXX 600: First September Forecasts for Europe and Eurozone

Koninklijke Vopak & Shaftesbury PLC are currently the top 2 candidates for addition in SXXP while Indivior PLC is the main candidate for deletion.

Dimitris Ioannidis

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: December‘23 Report

Since mid-November, spreads have generally widened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (9 have tightened, 10...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Investore Some More DIY

Investore (IPL) has announced the acquisition of Bunnings New Lynn, consistent with its strategy to reduce supermarket exposure and secure leases...

Forsyth Barr

Investore FY25 Result—Pic'n Mix

Investore (IPL) reported a stable result with like-for-like rental growth and development completions offset by net-asset divestments and higher...

Forsyth Barr

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: November 2025 Report

Holdco discounts diverged in November: GBL strengthens its case, Investor stays rich, Porsche SE sits at structural levels, Vivendi’s setback...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

STOXX 600: First September Forecasts for Europe and Eurozone

​Koninklijke Vopak & Shaftesbury PLC are currently the top 2 candidates for addition in SXXP while Indivior PLC is the main candidate for deletion.

Dimitris Ioannidis

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: December‘23 Report

Since mid-November, spreads have generally widened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (9 have tightened, 10...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Koninklijke Vopak & Shaftesbury PLC are currently the top 2 candidates for addition in SXXP while Indivior PLC is the main candidate for deletion.