Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst, Evidente

Sam Ferraro

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst

Evidente

Evidente is an independent financial education firm that delivers innovative financial advice to wholesale investors, including active long only funds, hedge funds, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds, in Australia and globally.  Drawing on academic research in asset pricing, behavioural finance and portfolio construction, Evidente provides wholesale investors with commercial solutions to stock selection and asset allocation decisions across equities and other asset classes.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics today showed that new motor vehicle registrations fell sharply in the month of October by 3.6%, representing the largest monthly decline since December 2011.  But this follows a 5.9% rise in September, the largest monthly gain since December 2011.Looking through the elevated volatility of the series of recent months, the trend remains robust.  New motor vehicle registrations are 4.2% higher than a year ago and remain close to a record high…

Data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics today showed that new motor vehicle registrations fell sharply in the month of October by 3.6%, representing the largest monthly decline since December 2011.  But this follows a 5.9% rise in September, the largest monthly gain since December 2011.Looking through the elevated volatility of the series of recent months, the trend remains robust.  New motor vehicle registrations are 4.2% higher than a year ago and remain close to a record high…

Australian New Motor Vehicle Registrations Pull Back in October, but the Trend Remains Robust

<ul><li>A number of developments in the past week were a stark reminder that&nbsp;Australia&rsquo;s exports to China&nbsp;are undergoing a revolution thanks to inexorable&nbsp;rise of China's middle class.&nbsp;&nbsp;At a time when BHP dropped to a decade low, the news-flow in Australia focussed on &nbsp;the growing shortage on supermarket shelves of Bellamy&rsquo;s baby formula, while overseas arrivals from China continue to surge.&nbsp;</li><li>Chinese demand for&nbsp;Australia's agri-food products, vitamins, wine, tourism, higher education and other non-commodity goods and&nbsp;services&nbsp;will continue to grow strongly and help diversify our export basket.&nbsp; In an environment where the aggregate supply of growth in Australia is low, the rise of China's middle class is a powerful and seductive investment theme that offers strong growth prospects to Australia's non-commodity exporters.</li><li>The key macro announcement in Australia in the past week was the stronger than expected employment print for the month of October.&nbsp; Expectations of a December rate cut have consequently diminished.&nbsp; Evidente has been of the view that given the spare capacity in the economy and labour market, the RBA should deliver more monetary stimulus.&nbsp; One strong monthly employment outcome is not sufficient to alter my view that labour market conditions are slack and that another rate cut is necessary.</li></ul>

A number of developments in the past week were a stark reminder that&nbsp;Australia&rsquo;s exports to China&nbsp;are undergoing a revolution thanks to inexorable&nbsp;rise of China's middle class.&nbsp;&nbsp;At a time when BHP dropped to a decade low, the news-flow in Australia focussed on &nbsp;the growing shortage on supermarket shelves of Bellamy&rsquo;s baby formula, while overseas arrivals from China continue to surge.&nbsp;Chinese demand for&nbsp;Australia's agri-food products, vitamins, wine, tourism, higher education and other non-commodity goods and&nbsp;services&nbsp;will continue to grow strongly and help diversify our export basket.&nbsp; In an environment where the aggregate supply of growth in Australia is low, the rise of China's middle class is a powerful and seductive investment theme that offers strong growth prospects to Australia's non-commodity exporters.The key macro announcement in Australia in the past week was the stronger than expected employment print for the month of October.&nbsp; Expectations of a December rate cut have consequently diminished.&nbsp; Evidente has been of the view that given the spare capacity in the economy and labour market, the RBA should deliver more monetary stimulus.&nbsp; One strong monthly employment outcome is not sufficient to alter my view that labour market conditions are slack and that another rate cut is necessary.

Weekly Impressions - Australia's Export Revolution to China's Rising Middle Class

<ul><li>This post provides an update of Evidente&rsquo;s currency model.&nbsp; Under-valuation of the A$/US$ has now reached an extreme, while the Big Mac index also points to deep A$/US$ under-valuation.&nbsp; ASX listed US$ earners have performed poorly despite the renewed deprecation of the A$ over the past six months.&nbsp;</li><li>I also assess the investment case against Brambles, which generates around half of its revenue in North America.&nbsp; The company will be undergoing a capex hump at a time when its marginal return on capital has been deteriorating to the point of recently turning negative.&nbsp;</li><li>I examine its remuneration scheme and conclude that the fact that the board, ESG advisory firms and institutional investors endorse complex and opaque Long Term Incentive plans of this kind, suggests that the bloated corporate governance industry has a long way to go to achieving adequate alignment of interests between senior executives and shareholders.</li></ul>

This post provides an update of Evidente&rsquo;s currency model.&nbsp; Under-valuation of the A$/US$ has now reached an extreme, while the Big Mac index also points to deep A$/US$ under-valuation.&nbsp; ASX listed US$ earners have performed poorly despite the renewed deprecation of the A$ over the past six months.&nbsp;I also assess the investment case against Brambles, which generates around half of its revenue in North America.&nbsp; The company will be undergoing a capex hump at a time when its marginal return on capital has been deteriorating to the point of recently turning negative.&nbsp;I examine its remuneration scheme and conclude that the fact that the board, ESG advisory firms and institutional investors endorse complex and opaque Long Term Incentive plans of this kind, suggests that the bloated corporate governance industry has a long way to go to achieving adequate alignment of interests between senior executives and shareholders.

A$ buy signal strengthens | Investment case against Brambles

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Australia's ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day. Data in this insight is up to 2nd March, published ~9AM on the 6th March.</li>
<li>The largest industry net increase in the past week was into "Diversified Metals &amp; Mining"; the largest industry net decrease was out of "Healthcare Distributors". Net shorts increased A$4bn WoW.</li>
<li>Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group (BHP AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sigma-healthcare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15966:1" rel="noopener">Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/flight-centre-travel-group-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7537:1" rel="noopener">Flight Centre Travel (FLT AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/telstra-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:690:1" rel="noopener">Telstra Corp (TLS AU)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boss-energy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4823:1" rel="noopener">Boss Energy (BOE AU)</a>.
</li>
</ul>


Australia's ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day. Data in this insight is up to 2nd March, published ~9AM on the 6th March.
The largest industry net increase in the past week was into "Diversified Metals &amp; Mining"; the largest industry net decrease was out of "Healthcare Distributors". Net shorts increased A$4bn WoW.
Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: BHP Group (BHP AU), Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU), Flight Centre Travel (FLT AU), Telstra Corp (TLS AU), and Boss Energy (BOE AU).



Aussie Shorts (2 Mar 2026): BHP Group, Sigma Healthcare, Flight Centre Travel, Telstra, Boss Energy

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Feb 27th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD37.4bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Capricorn Metals, BHP, Electro Optic Systems, Insignia Financial, Transurban.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Feb 27th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD37.4bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Capricorn Metals, BHP, Electro Optic Systems, Insignia Financial, Transurban.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Feb 27th): Capricorn Metals, BHP, Electro Optic Systems

Australia

IPH Limited is an intellectual property services firm. The Company offers a wide range of services for the protection, commercialisation, enforcement, and management of intellectual property. IPH provides these services across Australia, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, the Pacific Islands, and Asia.

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IPH Ltd (IPH AU)

Australian New Motor Vehicle Registrations Pull Back in October, but the Trend Remains Robust

Data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics today showed that new motor vehicle registrations fell sharply in the month of October by...

Sam Ferraro

Weekly Impressions - Australia's Export Revolution to China's Rising Middle Class

A number of developments in the past week were a stark reminder that Australia’s exports to China are undergoing a revolution thanks to...

Sam Ferraro

A$ buy signal strengthens | Investment case against Brambles

This post provides an update of Evidente’s currency model. Under-valuation of the A$/US$ has now reached an extreme, while the Big Mac index also...

Sam Ferraro

Aussie Shorts (2 Mar 2026): BHP Group, Sigma Healthcare, Flight Centre Travel, Telstra, Boss Energy

Net shorts increased A$4bn WOW. Companies mentioned in this regulaor weekly report include: BHP (BHP AU), Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU), Flight Centre...

David Blennerhassett

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Feb 27th): Capricorn Metals, BHP, Electro Optic Systems

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Capricorn Metals, BHP, Electro Optic Systems,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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