Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Every year (usually in the beginning of September), the Nikkei Inc Index team conducts an annual review of the major price-weighted Nikkei indices - the most important being the Nikkei 225 Average - and adds and subtracts constituents according to the Rules.
Today, they announced the 2021 version of the changes (<a href="https://indexes.nikkei.co.jp/nkave/archives/news/20210906E_1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announcement</a>, <a href="https://indexes.nikkei.co.jp/nkave/archives/news/20210906E_3.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">PAF changes</a>).
Below is Some Background. If you want to skip ahead to the juicy analysis, you can jump ahead to the Changes Announced section just below, and then more below the fold.
<h3>Some Background</h3>
The Nikkei 225, well-known globally as "the Nikkei" is a price-weighted index, originally started nearly 70 years ago as an average of a selected number of stocks listed on the TSE First Section. Later, it became 225 members. 
Because it is price-weighted, and because for a long time it made no divisor adjustments for stock splits (so when a stock split 2:1 its weight fell by half because price fell by half and trackers had to sell half their shares in that stock), and the price multiplier was determined by the par value of a company, then they later they started adjusting for splits, stocks which are old, never split, AND have a high price end up having a high weight in the index. 
There was a huge reshuffle in April 2000 when the Nikkei decided that the system needed rebalancing to include more tech, so they changed the Rules. They pushed 30 names out and 30 names in, and the 30 names added were 50% of the new index. 
Twenty one years after the prior change in methodology, this past May 10 the Nikkei Inc Index Team announced new changes to the Rules. There was a <a href="https://indexes.nikkei.co.jp/nkave/archives/news/20210510E_1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">proposal</a>, with an <a href="https://indexes.nikkei.co.jp/nkave/archives/news/20210510E_3.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">FAQ</a>, and <a href="https://indexes.nikkei.co.jp/nkave/archives/news/20210510E_2.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">supplemental data</a>. On 5 July, the Nikkei confirmed the proposal with a new <a href="https://indexes.nikkei.co.jp/nkave/archives/news/20210705E_1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Guidebook</a>.
When I wrote about this on 10 May in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/after-20yrs-nikkei-225-proposes-minor-impact-rule-changes-nintendo-disappointment" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:51277" rel="noopener">After 20yrs, Nikkei 225 Proposes Minor Impact Rule Changes (Nintendo Disappointment?)</a> I said I thought the changes disappointing. There are real problems with the index and this did not do much; the changes are evolutionary rather than revolutionary, with the only interesting change being that constituents are added with a weight no greater than 1%. If the normal price adjustment factor would allow a constituent to enter at a weight greater than 1%, the Price Adjustment Factor (base 1) is lowered in increments of 0.1 so that the deemed inclusion weight on Base Date (end of July) is no more than 1%. There is no change to the idea that the Nikkei Index Team can override their rankings at any time as they see fit.
Because the Nikkei Index Team had let the sector balances and rankings slide quite a bit over the years (not adding "obvious" names and not deleting names which should probably have been deleted, and not rebalancing the sectors as the rules say they should), the possibility was that some names like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nintendo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5415:1" rel="noopener">Nintendo Co Ltd (7974 JP)</a> and similar high-price-low-share-count names which "deserved" to be included were not simply because their very high price would create undue impact (it was undue impact and the lack of incremental float for high-weight low-share-count names which caused the BOJ to lower, then eventually cease their buying of Nikkei 225 ETFs). This rule on capping inclusions at 1% would go a ways to mitigating that problem so that would allow the Nikkei to add previously un-addable names. Expectations were high on a group of names, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nintendo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5415:1" rel="noopener">Nintendo Co Ltd (7974 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keyence-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3077:1" rel="noopener">Keyence Corp (6861 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zozo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18379:1" rel="noopener">ZOZO Inc (3092 JP)</a>, and probably <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a>, with the latter two likely to create some real froth if actually selected. 
<h2>The Changes Announced</h2>
Today after the close, the Nikkei Index Team announced the following changes to the Nikkei 225 Average as a result of the Annual Review:
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The changes will be made on the last trading day of September, at the close. I expect to see $10bn trade on that day.
The new rules allow the Nikkei Index team to not do a lot to the sector mix if the additions are made because of "High Liquidity" because while the sector mix would normally mean more than three deleted, the new rules cap changes at 3 per annual rebalance (which is not enough).
As noted above, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zozo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18379:1" rel="noopener">ZOZO Inc (3092 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a> were among names which were expected as possible inclusions and therefore a certain amount of pre-positioning may be in place. They may get somewhat hurt tomorrow.
<div class="content-highlight">
There are a LOT of moving parts here. There are 3 ADDs, 3 DELETIONS, 1 Price Adjustment Factor moved sharply higher and one moved somewhat lower (a list of all the PAFs announced by the Nikkei is <a href="https://indexes.nikkei.co.jp/nkave/archives/news/20210906E_3.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>), then there are another 220 stocks which will see selling on 30 September at the rebalance. 
</div>
For more detailed analysis of the stocks, their positioning, how much to buy, etc, please read on.
<hr>
For more about passive tracking in Japan, please refer to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-passive-who-owns-what-2021" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:55008" rel="noopener">JAPAN PASSIVE: Who Owns What 2021?</a>

Every year (usually in the beginning of September), the Nikkei Inc Index team conducts an annual review of the major price-weighted Nikkei indices - the most important being the Nikkei 225 Average - and adds and subtracts constituents according to the Rules.
Today, they announced the 2021 version of the changes (announcement, PAF changes).
Below is Some Background. If you want to skip ahead to the juicy analysis, you can jump ahead to the Changes Announced section just below, and then more below the fold.
Some Background
The Nikkei 225, well-known globally as "the Nikkei" is a price-weighted index, originally started nearly 70 years ago as an average of a selected number of stocks listed on the TSE First Section. Later, it became 225 members. 
Because it is price-weighted, and because for a long time it made no divisor adjustments for stock splits (so when a stock split 2:1 its weight fell by half because price fell by half and trackers had to sell half their shares in that stock), and the price multiplier was determined by the par value of a company, then they later they started adjusting for splits, stocks which are old, never split, AND have a high price end up having a high weight in the index. 
There was a huge reshuffle in April 2000 when the Nikkei decided that the system needed rebalancing to include more tech, so they changed the Rules. They pushed 30 names out and 30 names in, and the 30 names added were 50% of the new index. 
Twenty one years after the prior change in methodology, this past May 10 the Nikkei Inc Index Team announced new changes to the Rules. There was a proposal, with an FAQ, and supplemental data. On 5 July, the Nikkei confirmed the proposal with a new Guidebook.
When I wrote about this on 10 May in After 20yrs, Nikkei 225 Proposes Minor Impact Rule Changes (Nintendo Disappointment?) I said I thought the changes disappointing. There are real problems with the index and this did not do much; the changes are evolutionary rather than revolutionary, with the only interesting change being that constituents are added with a weight no greater than 1%. If the normal price adjustment factor would allow a constituent to enter at a weight greater than 1%, the Price Adjustment Factor (base 1) is lowered in increments of 0.1 so that the deemed inclusion weight on Base Date (end of July) is no more than 1%. There is no change to the idea that the Nikkei Index Team can override their rankings at any time as they see fit.
Because the Nikkei Index Team had let the sector balances and rankings slide quite a bit over the years (not adding "obvious" names and not deleting names which should probably have been deleted, and not rebalancing the sectors as the rules say they should), the possibility was that some names like Nintendo Co Ltd (7974 JP) and similar high-price-low-share-count names which "deserved" to be included were not simply because their very high price would create undue impact (it was undue impact and the lack of incremental float for high-weight low-share-count names which caused the BOJ to lower, then eventually cease their buying of Nikkei 225 ETFs). This rule on capping inclusions at 1% would go a ways to mitigating that problem so that would allow the Nikkei to add previously un-addable names. Expectations were high on a group of names, with Nintendo Co Ltd (7974 JP), Keyence Corp (6861 JP), ZOZO Inc (3092 JP), and probably Oriental Land (4661 JP), with the latter two likely to create some real froth if actually selected. 
The Changes Announced
Today after the close, the Nikkei Index Team announced the following changes to the Nikkei 225 Average as a result of the Annual Review:







The changes will be made on the last trading day of September, at the close. I expect to see $10bn trade on that day.
The new rules allow the Nikkei Index team to not do a lot to the sector mix if the additions are made because of "High Liquidity" because while the sector mix would normally mean more than three deleted, the new rules cap changes at 3 per annual rebalance (which is not enough).
As noted above, ZOZO Inc (3092 JP) and Oriental Land (4661 JP) were among names which were expected as possible inclusions and therefore a certain amount of pre-positioning may be in place. They may get somewhat hurt tomorrow.

There are a LOT of moving parts here. There are 3 ADDs, 3 DELETIONS, 1 Price Adjustment Factor moved sharply higher and one moved somewhat lower (a list of all the PAFs announced by the Nikkei is here), then there are another 220 stocks which will see selling on 30 September at the rebalance. 

For more detailed analysis of the stocks, their positioning, how much to buy, etc, please read on.

For more about passive tracking in Japan, please refer to JAPAN PASSIVE: Who Owns What 2021? 

2021 Nikkei 225 Rebalance: Nintendo, Murata, Keyence IN; Nisshinbo, Toyo Seikan, 'Skupper' OUT

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Quantitative Analysis

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<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/080/230/original/2019-02-26_16-49-25.png?1551182690" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="80230"></figure>
Source: Japan Analytics
</div>
LARGE CAP RESULTS &amp; REVISION SCORES - The final instalment of our series of reviews of Japan's most recent earnings and revisions announcements covers the Results &amp; Revision Scores for Japan's 785 larger capitalisation companies with a market capitalisation of over ¥100b.
In the DETAIL section below we look at:- 
<ul>
<li>The 30 top and bottom-ranked companies by Results &amp; Revision Score as well as the top and bottom thirty ranked by change in score over the last quarter and provide brief comments on companies and topics of note.</li>
<li>By comparing Results Scores and Forecast/Revision Scores, we sort companies into'Optimists', 'Pessimists', 'Increasingly Optimistic' and 'Increasingly Pessimistic' categories.</li>
<li>As shown above, the relationship between the Results &amp; Revision Score (RRS) and our Relative Price Score (RPS) for each company and divide the large-cap universe into four 'quadrants' - 'Contrarian Buy' (Low RRS &amp; Low RPS) , 'Contrarian Sell' (High RRS &amp; High RPS), 'Peak Growth' (High RRS &amp; Low RPS) and 'Ex-Growth/Turnaround'  (Low RRS &amp; High RPS), highlighting the outliers in each quadrant.
<ul>
<li>In the two 'Contrarian' quadrants, the market is aligned with the current earnings momentum of the companies suggesting opportunities exist only for those willing or brave enough to take a contrarian view. </li>
<li>For 'Peak Growth', the market is calling for a downturn in momentum that has yet to be reflected in quarterly earnings. Where the cycle is more prolonged than expected, there are often opportunities for short-term rebounds in what are normally relatively-inexpensive companies.</li>
<li>The 'Ex-Growth' quadrant often consists of former 'Contrarian Sell's where the market is reluctant to acknowledge that the cycle has turned. This quadrant can also contain 'Turnarounds' - formerly 'Contrarian Buys' where the market is correctly anticipating a change in fortunes.   </li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Finally, we provide tables of the top and bottom five ranked companies in each of our 30 Sectors.</li>
</ul>



Source: Japan Analytics

LARGE CAP RESULTS &amp; REVISION SCORES - The final instalment of our series of reviews of Japan's most recent earnings and revisions announcements covers the Results &amp; Revision Scores for Japan's 785 larger capitalisation companies with a market capitalisation of over ¥100b.
In the DETAIL section below we look at:- 

The 30 top and bottom-ranked companies by Results &amp; Revision Score as well as the top and bottom thirty ranked by change in score over the last quarter and provide brief comments on companies and topics of note.
By comparing Results Scores and Forecast/Revision Scores, we sort companies into'Optimists', 'Pessimists', 'Increasingly Optimistic' and 'Increasingly Pessimistic' categories.
As shown above, the relationship between the Results &amp; Revision Score (RRS) and our Relative Price Score (RPS) for each company and divide the large-cap universe into four 'quadrants' - 'Contrarian Buy' (Low RRS &amp; Low RPS) , 'Contrarian Sell' (High RRS &amp; High RPS), 'Peak Growth' (High RRS &amp; Low RPS) and 'Ex-Growth/Turnaround'  (Low RRS &amp; High RPS), highlighting the outliers in each quadrant.

In the two 'Contrarian' quadrants, the market is aligned with the current earnings momentum of the companies suggesting opportunities exist only for those willing or brave enough to take a contrarian view. 
For 'Peak Growth', the market is calling for a downturn in momentum that has yet to be reflected in quarterly earnings. Where the cycle is more prolonged than expected, there are often opportunities for short-term rebounds in what are normally relatively-inexpensive companies.
The 'Ex-Growth' quadrant often consists of former 'Contrarian Sell's where the market is reluctant to acknowledge that the cycle has turned. This quadrant can also contain 'Turnarounds' - formerly 'Contrarian Buys' where the market is correctly anticipating a change in fortunes.   


Finally, we provide tables of the top and bottom five ranked companies in each of our 30 Sectors.


🇯🇵 Japan • Winter Large Cap Results & Revision Scores - Contrarian Buys & Sells/​Peak & Ex-Growth

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/067/916/original/2018-10-28_08-34-54.png?1540683306" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="67916"></figure>MOVING AVERAGE OUTLIERS - In addition to our Relative Price Score, we also monitor deviations from moving averages to highlight extreme price trends which often occur within the Overbought (+4) and Oversold (-2) levels of the Price Score, but still offer interesting short-term reversal opportunities. Our indicator uses a weighted sum of the share price relative to the 5-day, 20-day, 60-day, 120 day and 240-day moving averages. Extreme values are weighted sums greater than 100% and less than -100%. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/9990" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9990:1">Shima Seiki (6222 JP)</a> - chart above - is currently the most extreme negative outlier and the stock with the wort two-week negative change. Having declined by 41% in a month and 19% on Friday, is now likely to see a positive short-term reversal.A NOTE OF CAUTION - We would caution that this indicator is best used for timing shorter-term reversals and, in many cases, higher highs and lower lows will be seen in future. For longer-term positioning, the Relative Price Score and Volume Scores are preferred in addition to our residual income valuation metrics. MARKET TIMING - The number of extreme positive and negative moving average outlier values can also be indicative of the state of market optimism or pessimism.  Currently, there are only 15 very positive outliers and 149 very negative outliers. Both are the highest such number in over three years. However, we would suggest that the number of negative outliers needs to reach over 300 for a 'capitulation low'. <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/067/921/original/2018-10-28_11-44-53.png?1540694710" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="67921"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><div class="content-highlight">In the DETAIL section below, we cover the top and bottom twenty-five large capitalisation outliers as well as those companies that have seen the most significant positive and negative changes in their outlier percentage in the last two weeks and provide short comments on companies of particular note. </div>

MOVING AVERAGE OUTLIERS - In addition to our Relative Price Score, we also monitor deviations from moving averages to highlight extreme price trends which often occur within the Overbought (+4) and Oversold (-2) levels of the Price Score, but still offer interesting short-term reversal opportunities. Our indicator uses a weighted sum of the share price relative to the 5-day, 20-day, 60-day, 120 day and 240-day moving averages. Extreme values are weighted sums greater than 100% and less than -100%. Shima Seiki (6222 JP) - chart above - is currently the most extreme negative outlier and the stock with the wort two-week negative change. Having declined by 41% in a month and 19% on Friday, is now likely to see a positive short-term reversal.A NOTE OF CAUTION - We would caution that this indicator is best used for timing shorter-term reversals and, in many cases, higher highs and lower lows will be seen in future. For longer-term positioning, the Relative Price Score and Volume Scores are preferred in addition to our residual income valuation metrics. MARKET TIMING - The number of extreme positive and negative moving average outlier values can also be indicative of the state of market optimism or pessimism.  Currently, there are only 15 very positive outliers and 149 very negative outliers. Both are the highest such number in over three years. However, we would suggest that the number of negative outliers needs to reach over 300 for a 'capitulation low'. Source: Japan AnalyticsIn the DETAIL section below, we cover the top and bottom twenty-five large capitalisation outliers as well as those companies that have seen the most significant positive and negative changes in their outlier percentage in the last two weeks and provide short comments on companies of particular note. 

Japan: Moving Average Outliers - Playing the Extremes

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

The MSCI ACWI advanced to another new high yesterday - to levels not seen since mid-March with the U.S. and Emerging Markets leading the move. While potential resistance levels exist, recent developments only bolster our already positive outlook.  In today's report, we highlight actionable setups within our global Technology, and Real Estate Developers and REITs Groups.

The MSCI ACWI advanced to another new high yesterday - to levels not seen since mid-March with the U.S. and Emerging Markets leading the move. While potential resistance levels exist, recent developments only bolster our already positive outlook.  In today's report, we highlight actionable setups within our global Technology, and Real Estate Developers and REITs Groups.

MSCI ACWI’s Advance Continues: U.S. And Emerging Markets Leading the Way

Japan Aviation Electronics / Event-Driven

At the end of May this year, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/17084" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17084:1">NEC Corp</a> (NEC) announced it would spend JPY 19.2bn (~US$170mm) to purchase 10 million shares or approximately 11% of shares outstanding in affiliate <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/9095" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9095:1">Japan Aviation Electronics</a> (JAE) through a tender offer which is expected to begin in November 2016 after the receipt of approvals from various anti-trust authorities and regulatory bodies. The stated goal is to make JAE a subsidiary of NEC (it is currently an equity-method affiliate) and reap synergies in cooperating in…

At the end of May this year, NEC Corp (NEC) announced it would spend JPY 19.2bn (~US$170mm) to purchase 10 million shares or approximately 11% of shares outstanding in affiliate Japan Aviation Electronics (JAE) through a tender offer which is expected to begin in November 2016 after the receipt of approvals from various anti-trust authorities and regulatory bodies. The stated goal is to make JAE a subsidiary of NEC (it is currently an equity-method affiliate) and reap synergies in cooperating in…

Japan Aviation Electronics Partial Tender Update:  Launch Expected Next Month

Japan

IRISO ELECTRONICS CO., LTD. produces precision metal pins and high-technology connectors for printed circuit boards used in a range of electrical equipment. The Company also sells electrical lead wires.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Iriso Electronics (6908 JP)

2021 Nikkei 225 Rebalance: Nintendo, Murata, Keyence IN; Nisshinbo, Toyo Seikan, 'Skupper' OUT

The Nikkei 225 Rebalance is here. A small surprise in the ADDs. No surprises on the DELETEs. A couple of housekeeping changes, and 600 baskets to...

Travis Lundy

🇯🇵 Japan • Winter Large Cap Results & Revision Scores - Contrarian Buys & Sells/Peak & Ex-Growth

LARGE CAP RESULTS & REVISION SCORES - The final instalment of our series of reviews of Japan's most recent earnings and revisions...

Campbell Gunn

Japan: Moving Average Outliers - Playing the Extremes

MOVING AVERAGE OUTLIERS - In addition to our Relative Price Score, we also monitor deviations from moving averages to highlight extreme price...

Campbell Gunn

MSCI ACWI’s Advance Continues: U.S. And Emerging Markets Leading the Way

The MSCI ACWI advanced to another new high yesterday - to levels not seen since mid-March with the U.S. and Emerging Markets leading the move....

Vermilion Research

Japan Aviation Electronics Partial Tender Update: Launch Expected Next Month

At the end of May this year, NEC Corp (NEC) announced it would spend JPY 19.2bn (~US$170mm) to purchase 10 million shares or approximately 11% of...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

2021 Nikkei 225 Rebalance: Nintendo, Murata, Keyence IN; Nisshinbo, Toyo Seikan, 'Skupper' OUT

The Nikkei 225 Rebalance is here. A small surprise in the ADDs. No surprises on the DELETEs. A couple of housekeeping changes, and 600 baskets to...

Travis Lundy

🇯🇵 Japan • Winter Large Cap Results & Revision Scores - Contrarian Buys & Sells/​Peak & Ex-Growth

LARGE CAP RESULTS & REVISION SCORES - The final instalment of our series of reviews of Japan's most recent earnings and revisions...

Campbell Gunn

Japan: Moving Average Outliers - Playing the Extremes

MOVING AVERAGE OUTLIERS - In addition to our Relative Price Score, we also monitor deviations from moving averages to highlight extreme price...

Campbell Gunn

MSCI ACWI’s Advance Continues: U.S. And Emerging Markets Leading the Way

The MSCI ACWI advanced to another new high yesterday - to levels not seen since mid-March with the U.S. and Emerging Markets leading the move....

Vermilion Research

Japan Aviation Electronics Partial Tender Update: Launch Expected Next Month

At the end of May this year, NEC Corp (NEC) announced it would spend JPY 19.2bn (~US$170mm) to purchase 10 million shares or approximately 11% of...

Travis Lundy

🇯🇵 Japan • Winter Large Cap Results & Revision Scores - Contrarian Buys & Sells/Peak & Ex-Growth