Iron Ore and Dry Bulk Freight, Mint Finance

Umang Agrawal

Iron Ore and Dry Bulk Freight

Deep Fundamental Analysis

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Commodities

<ul>
<li>The EU plans to impose 25–50% duties on Chinese steel to protect domestic producers from cheap imports and high decarbonisation costs.</li>
<li>Analysts expect China’s steel exports to reach 120 million tons, intensifying global overcapacity, pressuring margins, and prompting protectionist responses worldwide.</li>
<li>EU tariffs on Chinese steel are unlikely to materially impact overall exports but function as strategic leverage, potentially reshaping flows and future negotiations.</li>
</ul>


The EU plans to impose 25–50% duties on Chinese steel to protect domestic producers from cheap imports and high decarbonisation costs.
Analysts expect China’s steel exports to reach 120 million tons, intensifying global overcapacity, pressuring margins, and prompting protectionist responses worldwide.
EU tariffs on Chinese steel are unlikely to materially impact overall exports but function as strategic leverage, potentially reshaping flows and future negotiations.


Shield or Strategy? EU’s Steel Tariffs Double as a Bargaining Chip with Beijing

<ul>
<li>Iron ore futures rallied as Chinese steel mills restocked post-Golden Week holiday, despite weak margins and persisting trade policy uncertainty.</li>
<li>Managed money participants expanded net long positions, signalling sustained bullish conviction.</li>
<li>The 65%-62% spread fell sharply while the 62%-58% spread surged, marking pronounced divergence in grade spreads following the post-holiday sessions. </li>
</ul>


Iron ore futures rallied as Chinese steel mills restocked post-Golden Week holiday, despite weak margins and persisting trade policy uncertainty.
Managed money participants expanded net long positions, signalling sustained bullish conviction.
The 65%-62% spread fell sharply while the 62%-58% spread surged, marking pronounced divergence in grade spreads following the post-holiday sessions. 


[IO Technicals] Near-Term Rally Fuelled by Restocking and Planned Output Cuts

<ul>
<li>Negative steel mill margins will likely result in production cuts that could adversely impact the near-term demand for iron ore. </li>
<li>Beijing's stricter stance on BHP and Simandou's safety-related suspension are altering the iron ore power dynamics and tightening supply.</li>
<li>Bearish MA crossover and weakening MACD signal fading momentum, with prices below key MAs, pointing to increasing downside pressure.</li>
</ul>


Negative steel mill margins will likely result in production cuts that could adversely impact the near-term demand for iron ore. 
Beijing's stricter stance on BHP and Simandou's safety-related suspension are altering the iron ore power dynamics and tightening supply.
Bearish MA crossover and weakening MACD signal fading momentum, with prices below key MAs, pointing to increasing downside pressure.


[IO Technicals 2025/40] Bearish Iron Ore Signals Collide with Simandou Halt and BHP Scrutiny

<ul>
<li>Citi warns iron ore’s rally is overstretched, with policy support and supply disruptions priced in, leaving limited upside ahead.</li>
<li>Managed Money participants are ramping up net long exposure, underscoring renewed bullish sentiment and rising confidence in stronger demand and price gains.</li>
<li>Iron ore’s momentum is fading as Bollinger Bands and MACD flash bearish signals, with sellers gaining control and downside risks rising.</li>
</ul>


Citi warns iron ore’s rally is overstretched, with policy support and supply disruptions priced in, leaving limited upside ahead.
Managed Money participants are ramping up net long exposure, underscoring renewed bullish sentiment and rising confidence in stronger demand and price gains.
Iron ore’s momentum is fading as Bollinger Bands and MACD flash bearish signals, with sellers gaining control and downside risks rising.


[IO Technicals 2025/39] Iron Ore Rally Wobbles as Policy Push and Supply Hiccups Already Priced In

<ul>
<li>Iron ore fell as weakening Chinese economic activity, shrinking steel demand, and rising mill maintenance dampened production and demand outlook.</li>
<li>Managed Money participants continue to increase their net long exposure, signalling renewed bullish sentiment and expectations of stronger demand and price gains.</li>
<li>Bearish MACD crossover and Bollinger Bands pullback signal weakening momentum, highlighting growing selling pressure and short-term downside risk.</li>
</ul>


Iron ore fell as weakening Chinese economic activity, shrinking steel demand, and rising mill maintenance dampened production and demand outlook.
Managed Money participants continue to increase their net long exposure, signalling renewed bullish sentiment and expectations of stronger demand and price gains.
Bearish MACD crossover and Bollinger Bands pullback signal weakening momentum, highlighting growing selling pressure and short-term downside risk.


[IO Technicals 2025/38] Slumping Steel Margins and Rising Stockpiles Weigh on Iron Ore

Australia

Iron ores are rocks and minerals from which metallic iron can be economically extracted. The ores are usually rich in iron oxides and vary in color from dark grey, bright yellow, deep purple, to rusty red. The iron itself is usually found in the form of magnetite (Fe3O4, 72.4% Fe), hematite (Fe2O3, 69.9% Fe), goethite (FeO(OH), 62.9% Fe), limonite (FeO(OH).n(H2O)) or siderite (FeCO3, 48.2% Fe).

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Iron Ore (IRON ORE COMDTY)

Shield or Strategy? EU’s Steel Tariffs Double as a Bargaining Chip with Beijing

EU’s planned 25–50% duties on Chinese steel could do more than defend local mills: they’re fast becoming a geopolitical bargaining chip.

Mint Finance

[IO Technicals] Near-Term Rally Fuelled by Restocking and Planned Output Cuts

Bullish sentiment returned as Chinese mills restocked post-Golden Week, managed money participants added to net longs, and technical signals...

Mint Finance

[IO Technicals 2025/40] Bearish Iron Ore Signals Collide with Simandou Halt and BHP Scrutiny

HRC and rebar mill margins have turned negative fuelling near-term downside pressure in the iron ore market. Near-term supply disruptions are also...

Mint Finance

[IO Technicals 2025/39] Iron Ore Rally Wobbles as Policy Push and Supply Hiccups Already Priced In

Iron ore’s rally is fizzling out as priced-in policy support and supply factors limit further upside, signaling a cautious near-term outlook.

Mint Finance

[IO Technicals 2025/38] Slumping Steel Margins and Rising Stockpiles Weigh on Iron Ore

Iron ore prices face pressure as China’s slowing steel demand, weaker manufacturing, and rising port stockpiles point to near-term downside.

Mint Finance

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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