Iron Ore, Copper, Equities, Mint Finance

Umang Agrawal

Iron Ore, Copper, Equities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

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Commodities

<ul>
<li>China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI edged up to 49.7, while Caixin jumped to 50.4, highlighting a divergence driven by survey scope, timing, and domestic demand strength.</li>
<li>Taiwan’s 20.15% steel tariffs may slash Chinese exports, triggering domestic oversupply, weaker prices, and reduced iron ore demand amid growing regional trade uncertainty.</li>
<li>Portside inventories climbed as arrivals rose, outpacing stable port demand and pointing to further stockpile growth.</li>
</ul>


China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI edged up to 49.7, while Caixin jumped to 50.4, highlighting a divergence driven by survey scope, timing, and domestic demand strength.
Taiwan’s 20.15% steel tariffs may slash Chinese exports, triggering domestic oversupply, weaker prices, and reduced iron ore demand amid growing regional trade uncertainty.
Portside inventories climbed as arrivals rose, outpacing stable port demand and pointing to further stockpile growth.


[IO Fundamentals 2025/26] Conflicting Factory Signals and Rising IO Inventories

<ul>
<li>Iron ore prices weakened due to rising Australian and Brazilian exports and subdued Chinese demand, while the UK prepares tighter steel import restrictions. </li>
<li>Rio Tinto and Hancock Prospecting have secured approvals for a $1.6bn joint initiative in Western Australia, expected to produce 31 million tonnes of iron ore annually.</li>
<li>Prices are still trading beneath critical moving averages, suggesting ongoing downside momentum, while the MACD below its signal line confirms the prevailing bearish trend.</li>
</ul>


Iron ore prices weakened due to rising Australian and Brazilian exports and subdued Chinese demand, while the UK prepares tighter steel import restrictions. 
Rio Tinto and Hancock Prospecting have secured approvals for a $1.6bn joint initiative in Western Australia, expected to produce 31 million tonnes of iron ore annually.
Prices are still trading beneath critical moving averages, suggesting ongoing downside momentum, while the MACD below its signal line confirms the prevailing bearish trend.


[IO Technicals 2025/26] Bearish Momentum Intensifies

<ul>
<li>Iron ore prices declined due to weakening demand from China, driven by a slump in its property sector, which has kept iron ore demand for steel subdued.</li>
<li>China’s steel production dropped 6.9% YoY in May amid capacity cuts, with blast furnace utilisation and pig iron output declining, though some furnace restarts may boost production soon.</li>
<li>Prices remain below key moving averages, indicating continued downward pressure, and the MACD below its signal line reinforces the current bearish trend.</li>
</ul>


Iron ore prices declined due to weakening demand from China, driven by a slump in its property sector, which has kept iron ore demand for steel subdued.
China’s steel production dropped 6.9% YoY in May amid capacity cuts, with blast furnace utilisation and pig iron output declining, though some furnace restarts may boost production soon.
Prices remain below key moving averages, indicating continued downward pressure, and the MACD below its signal line reinforces the current bearish trend.


[IO Technicals 2025/25] Bearish Momentum Strengthens

<ul>
<li>China’s May retail sales surged 6.4% YoY, driven by holiday spending and trade-in programs, though fading property prices may dampen future consumer sentiment.</li>
<li>China’s new home prices fell 3.5% YoY in May, marking a 23-month decline streak, though policy support shows signs of easing the prolonged property downturn.</li>
<li>Iron ore port inventories rose in mid-June as weaker steel margins cut pig iron output, reducing pick-up volumes and softening near-term demand despite steady arrivals.</li>
</ul>


China’s May retail sales surged 6.4% YoY, driven by holiday spending and trade-in programs, though fading property prices may dampen future consumer sentiment.
China’s new home prices fell 3.5% YoY in May, marking a 23-month decline streak, though policy support shows signs of easing the prolonged property downturn.
Iron ore port inventories rose in mid-June as weaker steel margins cut pig iron output, reducing pick-up volumes and softening near-term demand despite steady arrivals.


[IO Fundamentals 2025/24] Retail Revival Vs. Real Estate Rut: Uneven China Recovery Tempers Outlook

<ul>
<li>The U.S. will impose a 55% tariff on Chinese goods; China responds with 10%, as part of a deal addressing trade and fentanyl concerns.</li>
<li>China’s steelmakers face pressure as EV price wars cut margins. Platts to lower iron ore spec to 61% in 2026, prompting SGX contract adjustments.</li>
<li>Prices hold below key moving averages, reflecting downside momentum, while the MACD staying under its signal line supports the ongoing bearish outlook. </li>
</ul>


The U.S. will impose a 55% tariff on Chinese goods; China responds with 10%, as part of a deal addressing trade and fentanyl concerns.
China’s steelmakers face pressure as EV price wars cut margins. Platts to lower iron ore spec to 61% in 2026, prompting SGX contract adjustments.
Prices hold below key moving averages, reflecting downside momentum, while the MACD staying under its signal line supports the ongoing bearish outlook. 


[IO Technicals 2025/24] Downward Momentum Lingers

Australia

Iron ores are rocks and minerals from which metallic iron can be economically extracted. The ores are usually rich in iron oxides and vary in color from dark grey, bright yellow, deep purple, to rusty red. The iron itself is usually found in the form of magnetite (Fe3O4, 72.4% Fe), hematite (Fe2O3, 69.9% Fe), goethite (FeO(OH), 62.9% Fe), limonite (FeO(OH).n(H2O)) or siderite (FeCO3, 48.2% Fe).

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Iron Ore (IRON ORE COMDTY)

[IO Fundamentals 2025/26] Conflicting Factory Signals and Rising IO Inventories

Diverging PMI readings, new steel tariffs, and rising inventories complicate China’s manufacturing outlook, casting uncertainty over iron ore...

Mint Finance

[IO Technicals 2025/26] Bearish Momentum Intensifies

Iron ore futures fluctuate within a tight range as rising shipments, weaker Chinese demand, and bearish technical indicators set the tone for...

Mint Finance

[IO Technicals 2025/25] Bearish Momentum Strengthens

Iron ore futures declined this week as China’s property slump and rising stockpiles weigh on demand, while technical signals highlight persistent...

Mint Finance

[IO Fundamentals 2025/24] Retail Revival Vs. Real Estate Rut: Uneven China Recovery Tempers Outlook

China’s May data shows mixed signals: retail sales surged, but factory and housing slowdowns persist. Steel cuts and rising inventories weigh on...

Mint Finance

[IO Technicals 2025/24] Downward Momentum Lingers

Iron ore futures traded in a tighter range this week, with sentiment lifted by easing U.S.-China tensions, though structural pressures on steel...

Mint Finance

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