Iron Ore and Dry Bulk Freight, Mint Finance

Umang Agrawal

Iron Ore and Dry Bulk Freight

Deep Fundamental Analysis

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Commodities

<ul>
<li>China’s mega hydropower project signals stronger infrastructure-led steel demand, offering a lifeline to mills and boosting near-term iron ore demand and prices amid weak property activity.</li>
<li>Rio Tinto's strong Q2 output boosts near-term iron ore momentum, but muted shipments, cyclone impact, and gradual Simandou ramp-up may limit upside in prices.</li>
<li>Portside iron ore inventory data showed mixed signals last week, with SMM reporting a sharp drop while CISA data reflected a slight increase.</li>
</ul>


China’s mega hydropower project signals stronger infrastructure-led steel demand, offering a lifeline to mills and boosting near-term iron ore demand and prices amid weak property activity.
Rio Tinto's strong Q2 output boosts near-term iron ore momentum, but muted shipments, cyclone impact, and gradual Simandou ramp-up may limit upside in prices.
Portside iron ore inventory data showed mixed signals last week, with SMM reporting a sharp drop while CISA data reflected a slight increase.


[IO Fundamentals 2025/29] IO Recovery in Spotlight Amid China’s Infrastructure Drive

<ul>
<li>Iron ore prices topped $100/ton as Beijing’s push on steel overcapacity and hopes of property support lifted sentiment, alongside tighter inventories fuelling restocking expectations.</li>
<li>Rio Tinto’s early Simandou shipments from November sparked fresh interest, though RBC sees output reaching just 12 million tons by 2026, ramping up slowly.</li>
<li>Prices are holding firm above key moving averages, pointing to continued upward momentum, while the MACD above its signal line reinforces the bullish trend.</li>
</ul>


Iron ore prices topped $100/ton as Beijing’s push on steel overcapacity and hopes of property support lifted sentiment, alongside tighter inventories fuelling restocking expectations.
Rio Tinto’s early Simandou shipments from November sparked fresh interest, though RBC sees output reaching just 12 million tons by 2026, ramping up slowly.
Prices are holding firm above key moving averages, pointing to continued upward momentum, while the MACD above its signal line reinforces the bullish trend.


[IO Technicals 2025/29] Near Term Bullish Trend to Persist

<ul>
<li>Iron ore demand remains strong as supply tightens from Australia and Brazil, and China pushes for industrial reforms that could support raw material prices.</li>
<li>Despite macroeconomic headwinds and Malaysian tariffs on Chinese steel, robust mill profits, and limited production curbs are expected to sustain iron ore demand.</li>
<li>Prices are trading above key moving averages, suggesting ongoing upside momentum, while the MACD above its signal line confirms the prevailing bullish bias.</li>
</ul>


Iron ore demand remains strong as supply tightens from Australia and Brazil, and China pushes for industrial reforms that could support raw material prices.
Despite macroeconomic headwinds and Malaysian tariffs on Chinese steel, robust mill profits, and limited production curbs are expected to sustain iron ore demand.
Prices are trading above key moving averages, suggesting ongoing upside momentum, while the MACD above its signal line confirms the prevailing bullish bias.


[IO Technicals 2025/28] Bullish Momentum Intensifies

<ul>
<li>Beijing’s push to cut inefficient capacity may support steel margins and create a steady floor for iron ore prices.</li>
<li>Malaysia’s anti-dumping tariffs of 3.86-57.90% target Chinese steel exports, posing limited short-term impact but signalling broader risks to China’s iron ore demand over time.</li>
<li>Portside inventories may continue rising as iron ore arrivals increase and weak pig iron output slows cargo pick-up across Chinese ports.</li>
</ul>


Beijing’s push to cut inefficient capacity may support steel margins and create a steady floor for iron ore prices.
Malaysia’s anti-dumping tariffs of 3.86-57.90% target Chinese steel exports, posing limited short-term impact but signalling broader risks to China’s iron ore demand over time.
Portside inventories may continue rising as iron ore arrivals increase and weak pig iron output slows cargo pick-up across Chinese ports.


[IO Fundamentals 2025/27] Industrial Cleanup, Trade Tensions, and Diverging Inventory Data

<ul>
<li>Reduced shipments and increased hot metal output buoyed iron ore prices. However, long-term demand faces pressure from Chinese steel stagnation and looming supply from Simandou.</li>
<li>Analysts foresee a balanced iron ore market in 2025, but warn that trade tensions and shifting Chinese policies could undermine demand and price stability.</li>
<li>Prices are trading above short-term moving averages, suggesting ongoing upside momentum, while the MACD above its signal line confirms the prevailing bullish trend.</li>
</ul>


Reduced shipments and increased hot metal output buoyed iron ore prices. However, long-term demand faces pressure from Chinese steel stagnation and looming supply from Simandou.
Analysts foresee a balanced iron ore market in 2025, but warn that trade tensions and shifting Chinese policies could undermine demand and price stability.
Prices are trading above short-term moving averages, suggesting ongoing upside momentum, while the MACD above its signal line confirms the prevailing bullish trend.


[IO Technicals 2025/27] Bullish Momentum Gains Traction

Australia

Iron ores are rocks and minerals from which metallic iron can be economically extracted. The ores are usually rich in iron oxides and vary in color from dark grey, bright yellow, deep purple, to rusty red. The iron itself is usually found in the form of magnetite (Fe3O4, 72.4% Fe), hematite (Fe2O3, 69.9% Fe), goethite (FeO(OH), 62.9% Fe), limonite (FeO(OH).n(H2O)) or siderite (FeCO3, 48.2% Fe).

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Iron Ore (IRON ORE COMDTY)

[IO Fundamentals 2025/29] IO Recovery in Spotlight Amid China’s Infrastructure Drive

A massive hydropower rollout, surprise early export timeline, and diverging inventory trends are reshaping sentiment in iron ore and steel markets.

Mint Finance

[IO Technicals 2025/29] Near Term Bullish Trend to Persist

Iron ore futures surged past $100/ton as supply curbs, policy optimism, and tight inventories sparked renewed bullish momentum in the market.

Mint Finance

[IO Technicals 2025/28] Bullish Momentum Intensifies

Iron ore demand stays strong amid supply constraints from Australia and Brazil, with China's industrial reforms potentially boosting raw material...

Mint Finance

[IO Fundamentals 2025/27] Industrial Cleanup, Trade Tensions, and Diverging Inventory Data

A tempered push for supply-side reform could tighten inefficient steel output and support iron ore prices, even as Malaysian tariffs and uneven...

Mint Finance

[IO Technicals 2025/27] Bullish Momentum Gains Traction

Iron Ore Futures advanced on tightening supply and robust hot metal output, breaching key resistance levels amid growing bullish signals and...

Mint Finance

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[IO Fundamentals 2025/29] IO Recovery in Spotlight Amid China’s Infrastructure Drive

A massive hydropower rollout, surprise early export timeline, and diverging inventory trends are reshaping sentiment in iron ore and steel markets.

Mint Finance

[IO Technicals 2025/29] Near Term Bullish Trend to Persist

Iron ore futures surged past $100/ton as supply curbs, policy optimism, and tight inventories sparked renewed bullish momentum in the market.

Mint Finance

[IO Technicals 2025/28] Bullish Momentum Intensifies

​Iron ore demand stays strong amid supply constraints from Australia and Brazil, with China's industrial reforms potentially boosting raw material...

Mint Finance

[IO Fundamentals 2025/27] Industrial Cleanup, Trade Tensions, and Diverging Inventory Data

A tempered push for supply-side reform could tighten inefficient steel output and support iron ore prices, even as Malaysian tariffs and uneven...

Mint Finance

[IO Technicals 2025/27] Bullish Momentum Gains Traction

Iron Ore Futures advanced on tightening supply and robust hot metal output, breaching key resistance levels amid growing bullish signals and...

Mint Finance

Iron ore demand stays strong amid supply constraints from Australia and Brazil, with China's industrial reforms potentially boosting raw material...