Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the resistance at 1,640/1,650 points and the support at 1,625/1,620 points.</li><li>Positive factors include the valuations of Thai stocks, which remain inexpensive, as reflected in the fact that the earnings yield gap is still higher than the 12M average.</li><li>The negative factors include concerns that the Fed may hike the policy interest rate more aggressively than expected due to the better-than-forecast employment figures and the continued increase in the ISM services PMI.</li></ul>

The SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the resistance at 1,640/1,650 points and the support at 1,625/1,620 points.Positive factors include the valuations of Thai stocks, which remain inexpensive, as reflected in the fact that the earnings yield gap is still higher than the 12M average.The negative factors include concerns that the Fed may hike the policy interest rate more aggressively than expected due to the better-than-forecast employment figures and the continued increase in the ISM services PMI.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Delta Electronics (Thailand) / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The market cap review period for the December rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a> ends in 6 trading days.</li>
<li>Following the market consultation and reduction in the turnover ratio, there could be four changes to the index. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/total-access-communication" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:948:1" rel="noopener">DTAC</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/true-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8:1" rel="noopener">TRUE</a> merger could result in another inclusion in Q1 2023.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover at the December rebalance is 8.1% and will result in a one-way trade of THB 7.4bn. More than 1x ADV to trade on most stocks.</li>
</ul>


The market cap review period for the December rebalance of the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) ends in 6 trading days.
Following the market consultation and reduction in the turnover ratio, there could be four changes to the index. The DTAC/TRUE merger could result in another inclusion in Q1 2023.
Estimated one-way turnover at the December rebalance is 8.1% and will result in a one-way trade of THB 7.4bn. More than 1x ADV to trade on most stocks.


SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Four Potential Changes in December

<ul><li>The SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the resistance at 1,630/1,635 points and the support at 1,611 (50-week EMA)/1,600 points.</li><li>We recommend trading buy on BANPU, CPALL and SC.</li><li>Today's momentum is slightly negative due to concerns over China's new lockdowns in Beijing to contain COVID-19.</li></ul>

The SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the resistance at 1,630/1,635 points and the support at 1,611 (50-week EMA)/1,600 points.We recommend trading buy on BANPU, CPALL and SC.Today's momentum is slightly negative due to concerns over China's new lockdowns in Beijing to contain COVID-19.

Recommendation: Buy on Weakness, Sell on Strength

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Research

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

Leading, full-service investment firm in Thailand

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

<ul>
<li>We maintain the HOLD recommendation with a TP of Bt3.30. IRPC’s 3Q22 earnings turned to a loss of Bt2.5bn (compared to a profit both YoY an QoQ),</li>
<li>3Q22 earning hit by weak GIM and stock loss The 3Q22 earnings turned to a loss of Bt2.5bn (compared to a profit of Bt2.2bn in 3Q21 and Bt3.8bn in 2Q22).</li>
<li>The accounting gross integrated margin (accounting GIM) fall to US$0.73/bbl (-95% YoY, -96% QoQ), underwritten by weak market GIM on top of hedging and stock loss.</li>
</ul>


We maintain the HOLD recommendation with a TP of Bt3.30. IRPC’s 3Q22 earnings turned to a loss of Bt2.5bn (compared to a profit both YoY an QoQ),
3Q22 earning hit by weak GIM and stock loss The 3Q22 earnings turned to a loss of Bt2.5bn (compared to a profit of Bt2.2bn in 3Q21 and Bt3.8bn in 2Q22).
The accounting gross integrated margin (accounting GIM) fall to US$0.73/bbl (-95% YoY, -96% QoQ), underwritten by weak market GIM on top of hedging and stock loss.


IRPC : Weak GIM and Stock Loss Dragged 3Q22 Profit

<ul><li>The SET Index is expected to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,636/1,649 points and the support at 1,612 points (200-day EMA)/1,607 points (50-day EMA).</li><li>We recommend trading buy on HMPRO, SPA and CRC.</li><li>Technically, the index is on an uptrend in the form of a rounding bottom (U-shape), moving toward testing the target resistance of 1,649 points.</li></ul>

The SET Index is expected to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,636/1,649 points and the support at 1,612 points (200-day EMA)/1,607 points (50-day EMA).We recommend trading buy on HMPRO, SPA and CRC.Technically, the index is on an uptrend in the form of a rounding bottom (U-shape), moving toward testing the target resistance of 1,649 points.

Thailand

IRPC is a leading integrated petroleum and petrochemical company, operating the first fully integrated petrochemical complex in Southeast Asia. It refines oil and produces petrochemical products, including various plastic resins, olefins, aromatics, lubricants, and asphalt, serving diverse industries. The company's operations are primarily located in Rayong Province, Thailand, and it was founded in 1978.

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IRPC (IRPC-R TB)

Market Outlook

The SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the resistance at 1,640/1,650 points and the support at 1,625/1,620 points. Positive factors...

Krungthai XSpring

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Four Potential Changes in December

Following the market consultation, there could be 4 index change in December. Estimated one-way turnover is 8.1% and will result in a one-way trade...

Brian Freitas

Recommendation: Buy on Weakness, Sell on Strength

The SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the resistance at 1,630/1,635 points and the support at 1,611 (50-week EMA)/1,600 points. We...

Krungthai XSpring

IRPC : Weak GIM and Stock Loss Dragged 3Q22 Profit

We maintain the HOLD recommendation with a TP of Bt3.30. IRPC’s 3Q22 earnings turned to a loss of Bt2.5bn (compared to a profit both YoY an QoQ),...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Market Outlook

The SET Index is expected to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,636/1,649 points and the support at 1,612 points (200-day EMA)/1,607...

Krungthai XSpring

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