Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The June 2024 index changes for Thailand's SET 50 index were announced after market close yesterday (17th June 2024).</li>
<li>Initially we <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-leaderboard-set50-jun-24-3-changes-likely-banpu-still-not-safe-from-deletion" target="_blank" rel="noopener">expected only three changes</a> but after the index methodology was revised in May 2024, we <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-leaderboard-set50-jun-24-banpu-vs-sawad-has-to-be-monitored-closely" target="_blank" rel="noopener">revised our expectations</a> and we had 4 expected ADDs/DELs.</li>
<li>All 4 expected ADDs/DELs turned out to correct. In this insight, we take a look at our estimation of expected flows and potential trade ideas based on the flow dynamics.</li>
</ul>


The June 2024 index changes for Thailand's SET 50 index were announced after market close yesterday (17th June 2024).
Initially we expected only three changes but after the index methodology was revised in May 2024, we revised our expectations and we had 4 expected ADDs/DELs.
All 4 expected ADDs/DELs turned out to correct. In this insight, we take a look at our estimation of expected flows and potential trade ideas based on the flow dynamics.


Quiddity SET 50 Jun 24 Rebal: 4 Changes Confirmed; LONGs up 5.2% Vs SHORTs in a Month

<ul>
<li>The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET during the index rebal event in June 2024.</li>
<li>Although 80% of the 3-month reference period is now complete, it is still possible for the rankings to change.</li>
</ul>


The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET during the index rebal event in June 2024.
Although 80% of the 3-month reference period is now complete, it is still possible for the rankings to change.


Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun 24: BANPU Vs SAWAD Has to Be Monitored Closely

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Technically, we expect the SET Index to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,376/1,382 points (50-day EMA/75-day EMA) and the support at 1,360/1,355 points.</li><li>This week, concerns are likely to arise regarding the risk of negative economic growth (potentially leading to a technical recession) following the release of Thailand's 1Q24 GDP growth report in the subsequent week.</li><li>This week's investment strategy: We recommend speculating on stocks that benefit from the depreciation of the baht, which has weakened against the USD by as much as 7.5% YTD since the beginning of the year.</li></ul>

Technically, we expect the SET Index to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,376/1,382 points (50-day EMA/75-day EMA) and the support at 1,360/1,355 points.This week, concerns are likely to arise regarding the risk of negative economic growth (potentially leading to a technical recession) following the release of Thailand's 1Q24 GDP growth report in the subsequent week.This week's investment strategy: We recommend speculating on stocks that benefit from the depreciation of the baht, which has weakened against the USD by as much as 7.5% YTD since the beginning of the year.

Weekly Strategy: Recommend “Trading Buy”

<ul>
<li>The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET during the index rebal event in June 2024.</li>
<li>With roughly half of the 3-month reference period now complete, I see three changes for the SET 50 index but one of those names is still close to the border.</li>
</ul>


The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET during the index rebal event in June 2024.
With roughly half of the 3-month reference period now complete, I see three changes for the SET 50 index but one of those names is still close to the border.


Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun 24: 3 Changes Likely; Banpu Still Not Safe from Deletion

<ul>
<li>The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed in the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET during the index rebal event in June 2024.</li>
<li>The 3-month reference period used for average market cap rankings started on 1st March 2024 and as things stand, there could be three ADDs/DELs in June 2024.</li>
</ul>


The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed in the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET during the index rebal event in June 2024.
The 3-month reference period used for average market cap rankings started on 1st March 2024 and as things stand, there could be three ADDs/DELs in June 2024.


Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun 24: Reference Period Begins; Three Changes Likely; Some Trade Ideas

Thailand

IRPC is a leading integrated petroleum and petrochemical company, operating the first fully integrated petrochemical complex in Southeast Asia. It refines oil and produces petrochemical products, including various plastic resins, olefins, aromatics, lubricants, and asphalt, serving diverse industries. The company's operations are primarily located in Rayong Province, Thailand, and it was founded in 1978.

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IRPC (IRPC-R TB)

Quiddity SET 50 Jun 24 Rebal: 4 Changes Confirmed; LONGs up 5.2% Vs SHORTs in a Month

Our sector-neutral trade ideas have generated a long-short return of 5.2% in a month which was significantly better than being LONG 4 Expected ADDs...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun 24: BANPU Vs SAWAD Has to Be Monitored Closely

After considering the recent methodology changes (relaxing the liquidity criteria), we believe BJC will be added in June 2024 and that could cause...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun 24: 3 Changes Likely; Banpu Still Not Safe from Deletion

Srisawad is currently an expected DEL. However, the gap between 51st-ranked Srisawad and 50th-ranked Banpu is very small and it is still possible...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun 24: Reference Period Begins; Three Changes Likely; Some Trade Ideas

Ngern Tid Lor (TIDLOR TB) could outperform Aeon Thana Sinsap Thailand (AEONTS TB) and Bangchak Corporation (BCP TB) could outperform IRPC PCL...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Quiddity SET 50 Jun 24 Rebal: 4 Changes Confirmed; LONGs up 5.2% Vs SHORTs in a Month

Our sector-neutral trade ideas have generated a long-short return of 5.2% in a month which was significantly better than being LONG 4 Expected ADDs...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun 24: BANPU Vs SAWAD Has to Be Monitored Closely

After considering the recent methodology changes (relaxing the liquidity criteria), we believe BJC will be added in June 2024 and that could cause...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Weekly Strategy: Recommend “Trading Buy”

Technically, we expect the SET Index to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,376/1,382 points (50-day EMA/75-day EMA) and the support at...

Krungthai XSpring

Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun 24: 3 Changes Likely; Banpu Still Not Safe from Deletion

Srisawad is currently an expected DEL. However, the gap between 51st-ranked Srisawad and 50th-ranked Banpu is very small and it is still possible...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun 24: Reference Period Begins; Three Changes Likely; Some Trade Ideas

Ngern Tid Lor (TIDLOR TB) could outperform Aeon Thana Sinsap Thailand (AEONTS TB) and Bangchak Corporation (BCP TB) could outperform IRPC PCL...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA