Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

*Poor Result: Bank of Baroda (BOB.IN) [BOB] reported a FY 4Q21 loss of INR 10.5 bn, quite a reversal of fortune from the gains of INR 10.6 bn in FY 3Q21. Several factors drove BOB’s poor performance: a) net interest income declined INR 3.7 bn (5.0%) linked quarter driven by NIM expansion of 5 bp to 2.72% while the loan book only grew 0.2%; b) a loss provision increase of INR 1.5 bn (4.4%) despite further weakness in lending; an operating expense increase of INR 3.9 bn (7.3%) driven primarily by other costs which increased INR 3.1 bn (13.8%) – pushing BOB’s C/I ratio 3.2% higher to 63.2%; and the write-down of INR 33.1 bn in un-utilized DTAs; and*Poor Reserve Cover: Further, net new NPLs remain elevated at INR 13.5 bn or 11.2% annualized. Keep in mind, a bank with over 8% of NPLs is typically considered an insolvent institution. By our calculation, however, BOB’s reserves still remain light by INR 293 bn or nearly 12 quarters of pre-tax earnings.

*Poor Result: Bank of Baroda (BOB.IN) [BOB] reported a FY 4Q21 loss of INR 10.5 bn, quite a reversal of fortune from the gains of INR 10.6 bn in FY 3Q21. Several factors drove BOB’s poor performance: a) net interest income declined INR 3.7 bn (5.0%) linked quarter driven by NIM expansion of 5 bp to 2.72% while the loan book only grew 0.2%; b) a loss provision increase of INR 1.5 bn (4.4%) despite further weakness in lending; an operating expense increase of INR 3.9 bn (7.3%) driven primarily by other costs which increased INR 3.1 bn (13.8%) – pushing BOB’s C/I ratio 3.2% higher to 63.2%; and the write-down of INR 33.1 bn in un-utilized DTAs; and*Poor Reserve Cover: Further, net new NPLs remain elevated at INR 13.5 bn or 11.2% annualized. Keep in mind, a bank with over 8% of NPLs is typically considered an insolvent institution. By our calculation, however, BOB’s reserves still remain light by INR 293 bn or nearly 12 quarters of pre-tax earnings.

Bank of Baroda – No Light In This Tunnel

Specialist in Indian Banking and Economic Research

Hemindra Hazari

In a little-publicised step, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has directed the first 1,000 companies by market capitalisation on the Indian bourses to disclose voluminous information in their <a href="https://www.sebi.gov.in/media/press-releases/may-2021/sebi-issues-circular-on-business-responsibility-and-sustainability-reporting-by-listed-entities-_50097.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">business responsibility and sustainability</a> reporting. For FY2022 this is voluntary, but from FY2023 it is to be mandatory. This largely non-financial data may provide significant insights into large cap companies’ impact on the welfare of stakeholders (communities, employees, customers and channel partners) and the environment.Since 2012 the SEBI had mandated the disclosure of a Business Responsibility Report containing Environment, Social and Governance (ESG) parameters; however, the data was not standardised. The recent SEBI directive will standardise the data, facilitating its aggregation and its comparison across companies and industries. Even though they may not appear to be directly relevant to shareholders, these disclosures will shed light on how other stakeholders’ concerns are being addressed; and that can be relevant to the shareholders as well over the medium term. For the private sector banking and financial intermediaries, this data will reveal the near absence of trade unionism amongst their employees, and the high turnover of staff, especially at the lower levels. This turnover at the branches engaged in retail banking appears to be on account of ambitious sales targets set by the management. Such issues have typically been ignored by institutional investors, and indeed they often applaud such a policy, as it restrict wages and delivers higher profits.The disclosures stipulated by SEBI will also cover how the communities, customers, channel partners and employees view the company. Will this mean that companies will not be able to focus solely on shareholder interest, but will also have to pay attention to stakeholders’ concerns? In some cases, anti-corporate campaigners (representing workers, project-affected communities, or consumers) may find in such reports revelations that are embarrassing to the firm.The media and sell-side research have not reacted to these new requirements, as the disclosures are mainly non-financial. However, analysing and aggregating the data will provide valuable insights into companies and industries. In future, the cost of compliance for companies will increase. They will have to create separate departments, or outsource the function, in order to manage the voluminous data. It yet has to be seen how far the corporate sector cooperates, and the quality of the data provided. Nevertheless the step is likely to be helpful for understanding some aspects of the dynamics of corporate businesses in India.

In a little-publicised step, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has directed the first 1,000 companies by market capitalisation on the Indian bourses to disclose voluminous information in their business responsibility and sustainability reporting. For FY2022 this is voluntary, but from FY2023 it is to be mandatory. This largely non-financial data may provide significant insights into large cap companies’ impact on the welfare of stakeholders (communities, employees, customers and channel partners) and the environment.Since 2012 the SEBI had mandated the disclosure of a Business Responsibility Report containing Environment, Social and Governance (ESG) parameters; however, the data was not standardised. The recent SEBI directive will standardise the data, facilitating its aggregation and its comparison across companies and industries. Even though they may not appear to be directly relevant to shareholders, these disclosures will shed light on how other stakeholders’ concerns are being addressed; and that can be relevant to the shareholders as well over the medium term. For the private sector banking and financial intermediaries, this data will reveal the near absence of trade unionism amongst their employees, and the high turnover of staff, especially at the lower levels. This turnover at the branches engaged in retail banking appears to be on account of ambitious sales targets set by the management. Such issues have typically been ignored by institutional investors, and indeed they often applaud such a policy, as it restrict wages and delivers higher profits.The disclosures stipulated by SEBI will also cover how the communities, customers, channel partners and employees view the company. Will this mean that companies will not be able to focus solely on shareholder interest, but will also have to pay attention to stakeholders’ concerns? In some cases, anti-corporate campaigners (representing workers, project-affected communities, or consumers) may find in such reports revelations that are embarrassing to the firm.The media and sell-side research have not reacted to these new requirements, as the disclosures are mainly non-financial. However, analysing and aggregating the data will provide valuable insights into companies and industries. In future, the cost of compliance for companies will increase. They will have to create separate departments, or outsource the function, in order to manage the voluminous data. It yet has to be seen how far the corporate sector cooperates, and the quality of the data provided. Nevertheless the step is likely to be helpful for understanding some aspects of the dynamics of corporate businesses in India.

Newly Mandated Disclosures for India’s Top Corporates May Yield a Gold Mine of Information

SBI (State Bank of India) / Equity Bottom-Up

*Bottom-line Overstated And Of Poor Quality: State Bank of India (SBIN.IN) [SBI] reported FY 4Q21 results of INR 61.3 bn, declining INR 0.5 bn (0.8%) linked quarter. Despite the loss provision increase of INR 7.2 bn (6.7%); this is not nearly enough given the continued credit stress. SBI’s fee revenues grew INR 61.6 bn (10.5%) linked quarter, likely attributed to non-core gains which should not be repeatable going forward; and*Reserve Challenge Should Lead To Capital Raise: Net new NPLs increased INR 193.2 bn or 65.9% on an annualized versus – accelerating over the awful FY 3Q21 result of INR 145.7 bn and 41.6%.  These figures are quite troublesome - even for an Indian SOE bank. Given the capital challenges even prior to the Yes Bank (YES.IN) risk, SBI needs to prepare for additional losses. By our calculation, we find that SBI’s reserves are short INR 1.2 tn - nearly four years of pre-tax results or 61% of market-cap.

*Bottom-line Overstated And Of Poor Quality: State Bank of India (SBIN.IN) [SBI] reported FY 4Q21 results of INR 61.3 bn, declining INR 0.5 bn (0.8%) linked quarter. Despite the loss provision increase of INR 7.2 bn (6.7%); this is not nearly enough given the continued credit stress. SBI’s fee revenues grew INR 61.6 bn (10.5%) linked quarter, likely attributed to non-core gains which should not be repeatable going forward; and*Reserve Challenge Should Lead To Capital Raise: Net new NPLs increased INR 193.2 bn or 65.9% on an annualized versus – accelerating over the awful FY 3Q21 result of INR 145.7 bn and 41.6%.  These figures are quite troublesome - even for an Indian SOE bank. Given the capital challenges even prior to the Yes Bank (YES.IN) risk, SBI needs to prepare for additional losses. By our calculation, we find that SBI’s reserves are short INR 1.2 tn - nearly four years of pre-tax results or 61% of market-cap. 

State Bank of India – No Let Up On Credit

*Bad News On The Doorstep: IndiaBulls Housing Finance (IHFL.IN) [IndiaBulls] reported FY 4Q21 results of INR 2.8 bn, declining INR 531 mn (16.1%) linked quarter. The linked quarter weakness can be attributed to both: a) net interest income decline of INR 804 mn (10.5%) tracking a decline in both loans of 6.8% and NIM compression of 59 bp to 2.94%; and b) loss provision increase of INR 1.7 bn (120.9%); and   *Wrong Turn: Net new NPLs had increased INR 8.0 bn for the quarter for an annualized rate of increase of 159.3% - a complete about face from FY 3Q21’s decline of 11.3%. Reserves ae now frighteningly low, and we would suggest INR 30.2 bn or 9x stated PBT.

*Bad News On The Doorstep: IndiaBulls Housing Finance (IHFL.IN) [IndiaBulls] reported FY 4Q21 results of INR 2.8 bn, declining INR 531 mn (16.1%) linked quarter. The linked quarter weakness can be attributed to both: a) net interest income decline of INR 804 mn (10.5%) tracking a decline in both loans of 6.8% and NIM compression of 59 bp to 2.94%; and b) loss provision increase of INR 1.7 bn (120.9%); and   *Wrong Turn: Net new NPLs had increased INR 8.0 bn for the quarter for an annualized rate of increase of 159.3% - a complete about face from FY 3Q21’s decline of 11.3%. Reserves ae now frighteningly low, and we would suggest INR 30.2 bn or 9x stated PBT. 

IndiaBulls Housing Finance – A Turn For The Worse

*Results Highly Reliant On Gains: Canara Bank (CBK.IN) [Canara] reported bottom-line results of INR 10.1 bn for FY 4Q21, improving INR 6.0 bn (85.5%) linked quarter. Results were driven one factor alone: am INR 9.3 bn (21.8%) increase in various sundry gains - securities, F/X, et al. As awe calculate, these various low quality items and gains amounted to INR 48.9 bn during FY 4Q21 or nearly 5x Canara’s stated bottom-line result; and  * Credit Leads To Solvency Concerns: Given the INR 27.3 bn in NCO, we calculate that annualized net new NPLs amount to 21.7%. We remain highly concerned about Canara’s credit outlook, given the concentrations of SMA loans, ‘BBB’ and below corporate, and MSME loans; and poor collection efficiency.  By our calculation, Canara’s loan loss reserve falls short by INR 674.0 bn or by 180.2% - representing 115% of Canara’s equity base and implying a lack of solvency.

*Results Highly Reliant On Gains: Canara Bank (CBK.IN) [Canara] reported bottom-line results of INR 10.1 bn for FY 4Q21, improving INR 6.0 bn (85.5%) linked quarter. Results were driven one factor alone: am INR 9.3 bn (21.8%) increase in various sundry gains - securities, F/X, et al. As awe calculate, these various low quality items and gains amounted to INR 48.9 bn during FY 4Q21 or nearly 5x Canara’s stated bottom-line result; and  * Credit Leads To Solvency Concerns: Given the INR 27.3 bn in NCO, we calculate that annualized net new NPLs amount to 21.7%. We remain highly concerned about Canara’s credit outlook, given the concentrations of SMA loans, ‘BBB’ and below corporate, and MSME loans; and poor collection efficiency.  By our calculation, Canara’s loan loss reserve falls short by INR 674.0 bn or by 180.2% - representing 115% of Canara’s equity base and implying a lack of solvency.

Canara Bank – India’s Trash Compactor

India

iShares MSCI India Index ETF is an exchange-traded fund registered in Singapore. The Fund seeks to provide investment results that, before expenses, closely correspond to the performance of the MSCI India Index. The Fund invests all or substantially all of its assets in shares comprising the MSCI India Index in substantially the same weightings as constituted in the underlying index.

iShares MSCI India Index ETF (INDIA SP)

Bank of Baroda – No Light In This Tunnel

BANK OF BARODA: BOB reported a FY 4Q21 loss of INR 10.5 bn. Net new NPLs remain elevated at 11.2% annualized. BOB’s reserves still remain light by...

Thomas J. Monaco

Newly Mandated Disclosures for India’s Top Corporates May Yield a Gold Mine of Information

It is true that the explosion of ESG funds worldwide has not so far resulted in an improvement in ESG itself, but at least SEBI’s move may provide...

Hemindra Hazari

State Bank of India – No Let Up On Credit

STATE BANK OF INDIA: SBI reported a QOQ FY 4Q21 results decline of 0.8% - supported by gains. Net new NPLs accelerated to 65.9% from 41.6%. SBI...

Thomas J. Monaco

IndiaBulls Housing Finance – A Turn For The Worse

INDIABULLS HOUSING FINANCE: IndiaBulls reported a QOQ FY 4Q21 results decline of 16.1% due to a net interest income decline and loss provision...

Thomas J. Monaco

Canara Bank – India’s Trash Compactor

CANARA BANK: Canara reported QOQ bottom-line improvement of 85.5%, reliant on gains. Net new NPLs amount to 21.7%, but its reserve shortfall...

Thomas J. Monaco