Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Real GDP grew 7.4%YoY in Q4/FY25 with PCE and GFCF growing 7%+, bringing FY25 growth to 6.5%, and the 4yr moving average of real GDP growth to 8.25% for FY22-FY25. </li>
<li>Manufacturing decelerated to 4.5% growth in FY25 (from 12.3% in FY24), as high interest rates constrained GFCF, until a 25bp cut in Feb'25 enabled GFCF to rebound 9.4% in Q4/FY25.</li>
<li>With interest rates set to decline 100bp from Apr-Dec'25, GFCF should grow 10.5% in FY26, while PCE accelerates to 7.5% growth, enabling real GDP to grow 8.5% in FY26.</li>
</ul>


Real GDP grew 7.4%YoY in Q4/FY25 with PCE and GFCF growing 7%+, bringing FY25 growth to 6.5%, and the 4yr moving average of real GDP growth to 8.25% for FY22-FY25. 
Manufacturing decelerated to 4.5% growth in FY25 (from 12.3% in FY24), as high interest rates constrained GFCF, until a 25bp cut in Feb'25 enabled GFCF to rebound 9.4% in Q4/FY25.
With interest rates set to decline 100bp from Apr-Dec'25, GFCF should grow 10.5% in FY26, while PCE accelerates to 7.5% growth, enabling real GDP to grow 8.5% in FY26.


India: Real GDP Grew 7.4%YoY in Jan-Mar'25; Likely to Accelerate to 8% This Year

<ul>
<li>India's exports (merchandise+invisible) topped US$1trn in 2024, up over 36-fold in 33 years. This has been crucial to bolstering the economy, and is likely to strengthen as Chinese exports recede. </li>
<li>CAD likely moderated to 0.7% of GDP in FY25, and will shrink further in FY26, helped by lower oil prices and broad-based export recovery, as oil-refinery shutdowns end. </li>
<li>Fiscal deficit was 4.4% of GDP in the 12months to Feb'25 (below official estimate of 4.8%). With tax revenue strong, the FY26 fiscal deficit should shrink to 4% of GDP.  </li>
</ul>


India's exports (merchandise+invisible) topped US$1trn in 2024, up over 36-fold in 33 years. This has been crucial to bolstering the economy, and is likely to strengthen as Chinese exports recede. 
CAD likely moderated to 0.7% of GDP in FY25, and will shrink further in FY26, helped by lower oil prices and broad-based export recovery, as oil-refinery shutdowns end. 
Fiscal deficit was 4.4% of GDP in the 12months to Feb'25 (below official estimate of 4.8%). With tax revenue strong, the FY26 fiscal deficit should shrink to 4% of GDP.  


India Twin Deficit Watch: Fiscal Deficit to Shrink to 4% of GDP in FY26, CAD to 0.2%

<ul>
<li>The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut its policy rate by 25bp for the second consecutive time, and shifted from a neutral to an accommodative monetary stance. </li>
<li>With inflation likely to moderate sharply to 3%YoY in FY26, we expect another 100bp of rate cuts by Dec'25, taking the repo rate down to 5% in Dec/25. </li>
<li>Real GDP growth averaged 8.2% in FY22-FY25. Lower income tax and interest rates are set to bolster PCE and investment, enabling real GDP growth to rebound to 8% in FY26. </li>
</ul>


The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut its policy rate by 25bp for the second consecutive time, and shifted from a neutral to an accommodative monetary stance. 
With inflation likely to moderate sharply to 3%YoY in FY26, we expect another 100bp of rate cuts by Dec'25, taking the repo rate down to 5% in Dec/25. 
Real GDP growth averaged 8.2% in FY22-FY25. Lower income tax and interest rates are set to bolster PCE and investment, enabling real GDP growth to rebound to 8% in FY26. 


India: RBI Turns Accommodative; Expect Another 100bp of Rate Cuts by Dec'25

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>All imports into the US will face a minimum 10% tariff (with a few product exceptions). Countries face differential tariffs depending on their own effective protection against US exports. </li>
<li>China exports to US (54% tariff) suffer a near-crippling blow, with Vietnam (46%), Bangladesh (37%), Indonesia &amp; Taiwan (32%) hammered too. India, Korea, Japan, UK to benefit from trade diversion. </li>
<li>There'll be substantial re-shoring of US manufacturing over 2-10 years, boosting the US economy. Inflation will be a near-term problem, but most countries are likely to mutually negotiate tariffs down. </li>
</ul>


All imports into the US will face a minimum 10% tariff (with a few product exceptions). Countries face differential tariffs depending on their own effective protection against US exports. 
China exports to US (54% tariff) suffer a near-crippling blow, with Vietnam (46%), Bangladesh (37%), Indonesia &amp; Taiwan (32%) hammered too. India, Korea, Japan, UK to benefit from trade diversion. 
There'll be substantial re-shoring of US manufacturing over 2-10 years, boosting the US economy. Inflation will be a near-term problem, but most countries are likely to mutually negotiate tariffs down. 


US Reciprocal Tariff Scheme Is Likely to Boost US Manufacturing in Time; Positive

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>FII flows still influence market trends, even as domestic flows have gained prominence, especially during global macro uncertainty. </li>
<li>Current correction is in line with past episodes, both in terms of depth and scale of selling, suggesting we may be closer to the mature phase of the downturn.</li>
<li>We did data deep dive of FII flows how it has impacted markets in past and what it means for future.</li>
</ul>


FII flows still influence market trends, even as domestic flows have gained prominence, especially during global macro uncertainty. 
Current correction is in line with past episodes, both in terms of depth and scale of selling, suggesting we may be closer to the mature phase of the downturn.
We did data deep dive of FII flows how it has impacted markets in past and what it means for future.


Thematic Report : Decoding FII Flows; What History, Market Cycles, and Stock-Level Data Tell Us

India

iShares MSCI India Index ETF is an exchange-traded fund registered in Singapore. The Fund seeks to provide investment results that, before expenses, closely correspond to the performance of the MSCI India Index. The Fund invests all or substantially all of its assets in shares comprising the MSCI India Index in substantially the same weightings as constituted in the underlying index.

iShares MSCI India Index ETF (INDIA SP)

India: Real GDP Grew 7.4%YoY in Jan-Mar'25; Likely to Accelerate to 8% This Year

RGDP grew 7.4% in Q4FY25 driven by strong PCE, and GFCF boosted by a 25bp rate cut in Feb'25. With interest rates to decline 100bp, and income tax...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India Twin Deficit Watch: Fiscal Deficit to Shrink to 4% of GDP in FY26, CAD to 0.2%

India's total exports hit $1trn in 2024, despite declining refined-oil exports. CAD to shrink to 0.1% of GDP in FY26 and fiscal deficit to 4% of...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India: RBI Turns Accommodative; Expect Another 100bp of Rate Cuts by Dec'25

RBI cuts policy rate 25bp, shifts to accommodative stance. We expect sharp moderation in inflation to 3% in FY26, and 100bp rate cuts by Dec'25 to...

Prasenjit K. Basu

US Reciprocal Tariff Scheme Is Likely to Boost US Manufacturing in Time; Positive

US imposes 10%-54% 'reciprocal' tariffs, hitting China hard but benefiting UK, Korea, Japan, India. Reshoring of manufacturing to boost US...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Thematic Report : Decoding FII Flows; What History, Market Cycles, and Stock-Level Data Tell Us

FII flows continue to impact market trends amid global uncertainty, with current correction resembling past downturns, signaling a potential...

Nimish Maheshwari

India: Real GDP Grew 7.4%YoY in Jan-Mar'25; Likely to Accelerate to 8% This Year

​RGDP grew 7.4% in Q4FY25 driven by strong PCE, and GFCF boosted by a 25bp rate cut in Feb'25. With interest rates to decline 100bp, and income tax...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India Twin Deficit Watch: Fiscal Deficit to Shrink to 4% of GDP in FY26, CAD to 0.2%

​India's total exports hit $1trn in 2024, despite declining refined-oil exports. CAD to shrink to 0.1% of GDP in FY26 and fiscal deficit to 4% of...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India: RBI Turns Accommodative; Expect Another 100bp of Rate Cuts by Dec'25

​RBI cuts policy rate 25bp, shifts to accommodative stance. We expect sharp moderation in inflation to 3% in FY26, and 100bp rate cuts by Dec'25 to...

Prasenjit K. Basu

US Reciprocal Tariff Scheme Is Likely to Boost US Manufacturing in Time; Positive

​US imposes 10%-54% 'reciprocal' tariffs, hitting China hard but benefiting UK, Korea, Japan, India. Reshoring of manufacturing to boost US...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Thematic Report : Decoding FII Flows; What History, Market Cycles, and Stock-Level Data Tell Us

​FII flows continue to impact market trends amid global uncertainty, with current correction resembling past downturns, signaling a potential...

Nimish Maheshwari

RGDP grew 7.4% in Q4FY25 driven by strong PCE, and GFCF boosted by a 25bp rate cut in Feb'25. With interest rates to decline 100bp, and income tax...

India's total exports hit $1trn in 2024, despite declining refined-oil exports. CAD to shrink to 0.1% of GDP in FY26 and fiscal deficit to 4% of...

RBI cuts policy rate 25bp, shifts to accommodative stance. We expect sharp moderation in inflation to 3% in FY26, and 100bp rate cuts by Dec'25 to...

US imposes 10%-54% 'reciprocal' tariffs, hitting China hard but benefiting UK, Korea, Japan, India. Reshoring of manufacturing to boost US...

FII flows continue to impact market trends amid global uncertainty, with current correction resembling past downturns, signaling a potential...