Macroeconomic and Investing, The Macro Compass

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Macroeconomic and Investing

The Macro Compass

Actionable investment ideas and unique global macro insights. From the desk of a former Head of $20 bn Investment Portfolio straight to your inbox.

Actionable Investment Ideas

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Markets have moved sharply year-to-date, and in one clear direction: short Cathie Wood and Bitcoin, long cyclicals (banks &amp; oil)</li><li>There are good macro reasons for the downside move in high-beta, high-multiples but much less so for the long cyclical move to continue its upside move</li><li>My credit impulse metric suggests earnings and inflation are going to disappoint consensus</li></ul>

Markets have moved sharply year-to-date, and in one clear direction: short Cathie Wood and Bitcoin, long cyclicals (banks &amp; oil)There are good macro reasons for the downside move in high-beta, high-multiples but much less so for the long cyclical move to continue its upside moveMy credit impulse metric suggests earnings and inflation are going to disappoint consensus

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


<ul>
<li>
Global Liquidity is skidding and forcing risk asset prices lower</li>
<li>70% of World's Central Banks are now running 'tight' monetary policies</li>
<li>
Bond markets may have called this right. Viz the collapse in term premia</li>
</ul>



Global Liquidity is skidding and forcing risk asset prices lower
70% of World's Central Banks are now running 'tight' monetary policies

Bond markets may have called this right. Viz the collapse in term premia


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The market continues to send mixed signals - some neutral or healthy signals but some risk-off signals as well.</li>
<li>As long as the Russell 2000 index (IWM) is above $208, Russell Micro Cap index (IWC) is above $134-$135, and the S&amp;P 500 is above 4495, we cannot be bearish.</li>
<li>Treasury yields are not breaking down below 1.40%-1.45% support on the 10-year Treasury yield and 1.76% support on the 30-year Treasury yield.</li>
</ul>


The market continues to send mixed signals - some neutral or healthy signals but some risk-off signals as well.
As long as the Russell 2000 index (IWM) is above $208, Russell Micro Cap index (IWC) is above $134-$135, and the S&amp;P 500 is above 4495, we cannot be bearish.
Treasury yields are not breaking down below 1.40%-1.45% support on the 10-year Treasury yield and 1.76% support on the 30-year Treasury yield.


Continued Absence Of Breakdowns Is A Positive Sign; Many Bottoms-Up Stock Recommendations

<ul>
<li>Market dynamics continue to deteriorate and there are plenty of reasons to be concerned, which we outline below.</li>
<li>With that said, the bottom line is that the Russell 2000 index (IWM) is above $208 support and the Russell Micro Caps index (IWC) is above $135 support.</li>
<li>As long as these supports hold we expect more consolidation and mixed markets ahead, but we would turn bearish on breakdowns.</li>
</ul>


Market dynamics continue to deteriorate and there are plenty of reasons to be concerned, which we outline below.
With that said, the bottom line is that the Russell 2000 index (IWM) is above $208 support and the Russell Micro Caps index (IWC) is above $135 support.
As long as these supports hold we expect more consolidation and mixed markets ahead, but we would turn bearish on breakdowns.


Supports Holding Despite Concerning Developments; Semis & Home Improvement Retailers Attractive

<ul>
<li>Re-configured US Fed is becoming more hawkish towards inflation</li>
<li>Bond market term structure warns of near-term economic troubles
</li>
<li>Expect a ‘catch up’ with faster QE taper by US Fed</li>
<li>Inflation is transitory but ‘sticky’. Disinflationary forces will ultimately reassert themselves</li>
</ul>


Re-configured US Fed is becoming more hawkish towards inflation
Bond market term structure warns of near-term economic troubles

Expect a ‘catch up’ with faster QE taper by US Fed
Inflation is transitory but ‘sticky’. Disinflationary forces will ultimately reassert themselves


Watch-Out For The Fed’s Big ‘Catch-Up’

United States

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA.  The ETF seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of U.S. Treasury bonds with remaining maturities greater than twenty years. 

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT US)

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iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT US)

How To Trade This Market Eruption

Markets have moved sharply year-to-date, and in one clear direction: short Cathie Wood and Bitcoin, long cyclicals (banks & oil)

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Why Are World Markets Falling?

Weak Global Liquidity is pulling down World stock markets. More tightening looks set to come. Bonds have been warning of coming problems for months.

Michael J. Howell

Continued Absence Of Breakdowns Is A Positive Sign; Many Bottoms-Up Stock Recommendations

As long as the Russell 2000 index (IWM) is above $208, the Russell Micro Caps index (IWC) is above $134-$135, and the S&P 500 is above 4495, we...

Vermilion Research

Supports Holding Despite Concerning Developments; Semis & Home Improvement Retailers Attractive

Market dynamics continue to deteriorate and there are plenty of reasons to be concerned. However, the bottom line is that Russell 2000 (IWM) is...

Vermilion Research

Watch-Out For The Fed’s Big ‘Catch-Up’

Inflation is a near-term political threat in the US and will trigger a more hawkish response from the US Fed. This will unsettle stock markets, but...

Michael J. Howell

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)