Asian Economist

Kok Peng Chan

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>PBOC’s declining holdings of US Treasuries is often equated with the de-dollarisation of the Chinese economy.  Less known is that USD assets remain substantial and systemically embedded in Chinese banks</li>
<li>Chinese data shows their domestic banks are increasingly net long USD, with positions expanding alongside weaker domestic opportunities—especially from the property downturn—reinforcing demand for dollar assets</li>
<li>A forward-adjusted FX proxy shows RMB pressures remain driven by dollar flows, suggesting de-dollarisation narratives are overstated and China’s system still responds primarily to USD liquidity conditions</li>
</ul>


PBOC’s declining holdings of US Treasuries is often equated with the de-dollarisation of the Chinese economy.  Less known is that USD assets remain substantial and systemically embedded in Chinese banks
Chinese data shows their domestic banks are increasingly net long USD, with positions expanding alongside weaker domestic opportunities—especially from the property downturn—reinforcing demand for dollar assets
A forward-adjusted FX proxy shows RMB pressures remain driven by dollar flows, suggesting de-dollarisation narratives are overstated and China’s system still responds primarily to USD liquidity conditions


From the River to the Reservoir to the Lake: China's De-Dollarisation Story

<ul>
<li>Investors should not focus solely on the $38t in US public debt as it a headline figure over-reported and under- analysed</li>
<li>Fears of using short-term debt as the main source of financing debt is misplaced. They are rolled over and do not 'add' to new debt unless deficits expand </li>
<li>Teasury auction data does not show any signs of funding stress to date despite the widespread fears fanned by comments on Trump's fiscal policies</li>
</ul>


Investors should not focus solely on the $38t in US public debt as it a headline figure over-reported and under- analysed
Fears of using short-term debt as the main source of financing debt is misplaced. They are rolled over and do not 'add' to new debt unless deficits expand 
Teasury auction data does not show any signs of funding stress to date despite the widespread fears fanned by comments on Trump's fiscal policies


Understanding US Debt Dynamics - Dissecting the $38t Debt

Market Intelligence, ORTEX

ORTEX Market Intel

Market Intelligence

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Short sellers made decisive moves this week ending September 26.</li><li>Energy refining ETF CRAK saw SI hit 36.8% of float - up 38% in seven days.</li><li>Mortgage REIT RWT saw the sharpest build, with SI surging 215% to 22.1% of float as borrow dried up.</li></ul>

Short sellers made decisive moves this week ending September 26.Energy refining ETF CRAK saw SI hit 36.8% of float - up 38% in seven days.Mortgage REIT RWT saw the sharpest build, with SI surging 215% to 22.1% of float as borrow dried up.

Bears Charge Into Energy and Real Estate; Silver Shorts Flee

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>Regime change comes to Asia, making sector selection key to performance</li>
<li>Some key recession watch indicators  continue to ring alarm bells</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
Regime change comes to Asia, making sector selection key to performance
Some key recession watch indicators  continue to ring alarm bells


Overview #25 Implications of Stronger Asian Currencies

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook</li>
<li>The new Trump Administration’s “plan” for China is becoming clearer</li>
<li>What’s next for markets after the tumultuous events of the last week</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook
The new Trump Administration’s “plan” for China is becoming clearer
What’s next for markets after the tumultuous events of the last week


Overview #22 – The Lunatics Have Taken over the Asylum

United States

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA.  The ETF seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of U.S. Treasury bonds with remaining maturities greater than twenty years. 

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT US)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT US)

From the River to the Reservoir to the Lake: China's De-Dollarisation Story

While PBOC holdings of US Treasuries have declined, China's domestic banks' holdings of US dollar assets remain robust. With a weak property...

Kok Peng Chan

Understanding US Debt Dynamics - Dissecting the $38t Debt

This is the first of a 2 part report which cuts through debt scare headlines to show what truly drives USD risk and Treasury sustainability.

Kok Peng Chan

Bears Charge Into Energy and Real Estate; Silver Shorts Flee

Short sellers made decisive moves this week ending September 26. Energy refining ETF CRAK saw SI hit 36.8% of float - up 38% in seven...

ORTEX Market Intel

Overview #25 Implications of Stronger Asian Currencies

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. Implications of Asian currency strength in sector selection

Rikki Malik

Overview #22 – The Lunatics Have Taken over the Asylum

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. What happens next for markets after the events of the last week

Rikki Malik

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

From the River to the Reservoir to the Lake: China's De-Dollarisation Story

​While PBOC holdings of US Treasuries have declined, China's domestic banks' holdings of US dollar assets remain robust. With a weak property...

Kok Peng Chan

Understanding US Debt Dynamics - Dissecting the $38t Debt

This is the first of a 2 part report which cuts through debt scare headlines to show what truly drives USD risk and Treasury sustainability.

Kok Peng Chan

Bears Charge Into Energy and Real Estate; Silver Shorts Flee

Short sellers made decisive moves this week ending September 26. Energy refining ETF CRAK saw SI hit 36.8% of float - up 38% in seven...

ORTEX Market Intel

Overview #25 Implications of Stronger Asian Currencies

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. Implications of Asian currency strength in sector selection

Rikki Malik

Overview #22 – The Lunatics Have Taken over the Asylum

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. What happens next for markets after the events of the last week

Rikki Malik

While PBOC holdings of US Treasuries have declined, China's domestic banks' holdings of US dollar assets remain robust. With a weak property...