Independent Asian Credit Research, Bondcritic

Warut Promboon

Independent Asian Credit Research

Asian Fixed Income/Frontier Market Research

Bondcritic

Bondcritic, established in 2009, is designed to be an independent credit research voice that helps investors gain insights and unbiased analyses on Asian fixed income market. Our mission is to discover deep-value Asian high-yield and distressed bonds with a bottom-up approach, together with the help of our proprietary ESG (Environmental, Social Development, and Governance) model. At the same time, we focus on bringing investment cases of unrated and unloved issuers to the general public.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>A lack of the Fed’s willingness to cut rates will also be positive for fixed rate bonds.</li>
<li>We will have rising defaults, rising inflation, and the Fed’s lack of willingness to increase rates, all of which will lead to recession in 2026.</li>
<li>Trump presidency adds to our confidence that there will be policy uncertainty at least in 2025, which is negative for risky assets but positive for US Dollar assets, in general.</li>
</ul>


A lack of the Fed’s willingness to cut rates will also be positive for fixed rate bonds.
We will have rising defaults, rising inflation, and the Fed’s lack of willingness to increase rates, all of which will lead to recession in 2026.
Trump presidency adds to our confidence that there will be policy uncertainty at least in 2025, which is negative for risky assets but positive for US Dollar assets, in general.


Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Happy Sunday from Copenhagen.</li><li>Bear with me this week through this long read as we approach an extremely interesting crossroads in sovereign bond markets, impacted by very tight liquidity.</li><li>This story has been somewhat masked by policy events in the US and Germany, but it may nonetheless be the most important narrative for Q4, which is why you need to pay attention to it.</li></ul>

Happy Sunday from Copenhagen.Bear with me this week through this long read as we approach an extremely interesting crossroads in sovereign bond markets, impacted by very tight liquidity.This story has been somewhat masked by policy events in the US and Germany, but it may nonetheless be the most important narrative for Q4, which is why you need to pay attention to it.

Steno Signals #125: EUR Liquidity Overtakes USD Liquidity – A Historic Shift

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish following the S&amp;P 500's multi-month base breakout above 5670, alongside constructive market dynamics; the path of least resistance is higher.</li>
<li>We have discussed for the past two weeks (since our 10/22/24 Compass) how we would treat any pre-election pullback as a buying opportunity, and we are finally getting a pullback.</li>
<li>We expect SPX support at 5600-5670, and will remain bullish as long as 5600 support holds. Starting as early as today/tomorrow, we expect a strong end-of-year rally extending into early-2025</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish following the S&amp;P 500's multi-month base breakout above 5670, alongside constructive market dynamics; the path of least resistance is higher.
We have discussed for the past two weeks (since our 10/22/24 Compass) how we would treat any pre-election pullback as a buying opportunity, and we are finally getting a pullback.
We expect SPX support at 5600-5670, and will remain bullish as long as 5600 support holds. Starting as early as today/tomorrow, we expect a strong end-of-year rally extending into early-2025


Buy the Pullback; Expecting Significant End of Year Rally to Start as Soon as Today or Tomorrow

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>The FOMC cut its Fed Funds rate by 50bp, acknowledging that enough progress has occurred toward reaching the 2% target for core PCE inflation, while the labor market has cooled.</li>
<li>We were right on inflation and direction of rates since 2021 (so have differed with the Fed). Now, we agree that two more 25bp rate cuts will occur in 2024. </li>
<li>Core PCE inflation will be slow to moderate further, so allowing only another 50bp of cuts by end-2024. The FF rate should end 2025 at 3.5%, as RGDP grows 2.5%. </li>
</ul>


The FOMC cut its Fed Funds rate by 50bp, acknowledging that enough progress has occurred toward reaching the 2% target for core PCE inflation, while the labor market has cooled.
We were right on inflation and direction of rates since 2021 (so have differed with the Fed). Now, we agree that two more 25bp rate cuts will occur in 2024. 
Core PCE inflation will be slow to moderate further, so allowing only another 50bp of cuts by end-2024. The FF rate should end 2025 at 3.5%, as RGDP grows 2.5%. 


US: FOMC's 50bp Cut Should Avert Recession But Keep Inflation Elevated

<ul>
<li>The presidential race has tightened since VP Harris replaced President Biden at the top of the Democratic ticket. Harris leads popular vote, but Trump is ahead in the Electoral College. </li>
<li>Both VP candidates are ideological clones of the presidential candidates. Unless Harris moves to the centre at her convention and debates, Trump's Electoral College lead is likely to persist.  </li>
<li>The energized Democratic base is likely to ensure that either House, Senate or both will be won by Democrats. Divided government is positive for markets, limiting scope for policy extremism. </li>
</ul>


The presidential race has tightened since VP Harris replaced President Biden at the top of the Democratic ticket. Harris leads popular vote, but Trump is ahead in the Electoral College. 
Both VP candidates are ideological clones of the presidential candidates. Unless Harris moves to the centre at her convention and debates, Trump's Electoral College lead is likely to persist.  
The energized Democratic base is likely to ensure that either House, Senate or both will be won by Democrats. Divided government is positive for markets, limiting scope for policy extremism. 


US Presidential Race Narrows, but Trump Still Likely to Win Without Congress Control

United States

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA.  The ETF seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of U.S. Treasury bonds with remaining maturities greater than twenty years. 

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT US)

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iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT US)

Bond Market Monitor: The Trump Card

The Fed's reluctance to cut rates, combined with rising defaults and inflation, may lead to a recession in 2026, while policy uncertainty under...

Bondcritic

Steno Signals #125: EUR Liquidity Overtakes USD Liquidity – A Historic Shift

Happy Sunday from Copenhagen. Bear with me this week through this long read as we approach an extremely interesting crossroads in sovereign bond...

Steno Research

Buy the Pullback; Expecting Significant End of Year Rally to Start as Soon as Today or Tomorrow

Buy the Pullback $SPX $QQQ $IWM $IJH $VXF; Expecting Significant End of Year Rally to Start as Soon as Today or Tomorrow as market dynamics to...

Vermilion Research

US: FOMC's 50bp Cut Should Avert Recession But Keep Inflation Elevated

FOMC cuts rates by 50bp, predicts two more 25bp cuts in 2024 due to progress on inflation but cooling labor market. We expect FF rate to end 2025...

Prasenjit K. Basu

US Presidential Race Narrows, but Trump Still Likely to Win Without Congress Control

Presidential race tightens as Harris leads popular vote but Trump ahead in Electoral College. Divided government likely with energized Democratic...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Bond Market Monitor: The Trump Card

​The Fed's reluctance to cut rates, combined with rising defaults and inflation, may lead to a recession in 2026, while policy uncertainty under...

Bondcritic

Steno Signals #125: EUR Liquidity Overtakes USD Liquidity – A Historic Shift

Happy Sunday from Copenhagen. Bear with me this week through this long read as we approach an extremely interesting crossroads in sovereign bond...

Steno Research

Buy the Pullback; Expecting Significant End of Year Rally to Start as Soon as Today or Tomorrow

Buy the Pullback $SPX $QQQ $IWM $IJH $VXF; Expecting Significant End of Year Rally to Start as Soon as Today or Tomorrow as market dynamics to...

Vermilion Research

US: FOMC's 50bp Cut Should Avert Recession But Keep Inflation Elevated

​FOMC cuts rates by 50bp, predicts two more 25bp cuts in 2024 due to progress on inflation but cooling labor market. We expect FF rate to end 2025...

Prasenjit K. Basu

US Presidential Race Narrows, but Trump Still Likely to Win Without Congress Control

​Presidential race tightens as Harris leads popular vote but Trump ahead in Electoral College. Divided government likely with energized Democratic...

Prasenjit K. Basu

The Fed's reluctance to cut rates, combined with rising defaults and inflation, may lead to a recession in 2026, while policy uncertainty under...

FOMC cuts rates by 50bp, predicts two more 25bp cuts in 2024 due to progress on inflation but cooling labor market. We expect FF rate to end 2025...

Presidential race tightens as Harris leads popular vote but Trump ahead in Electoral College. Divided government likely with energized Democratic...