Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Asian economic data show a sharp and accelerating decline</li>
<li>China is the main culprit</li>
<li>Slower Chinese economy has been correlated with lower bond yields</li>
<li>Could this warn of an upcoming policy error if QE tapering continues?</li>
</ul>


Asian economic data show a sharp and accelerating decline
China is the main culprit
Slower Chinese economy has been correlated with lower bond yields
Could this warn of an upcoming policy error if QE tapering continues?


Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>PBoC's 25bp LPR and 50bp RRR cuts in Feb'24 are likely to prove ineffective palliatives to deal with the massive overhang of unsold real-estate across China. </li>
<li>Challenge manifests in urban vacancy rates of 20% (&gt;twice Japan's at its bubble peak), real and potential liquidations of Evergrande and Country Garden, and bankruptcy of Zhongzhi shadow-banking group. </li>
<li>3% FAI growth underpinned 5.2% RGDP growth in 2023 despite low base. RGDP growth in 2024 will be 4%, and less in the medium-term as FAI and non-Russia exports stagnate.  </li>
</ul>


PBoC's 25bp LPR and 50bp RRR cuts in Feb'24 are likely to prove ineffective palliatives to deal with the massive overhang of unsold real-estate across China. 
Challenge manifests in urban vacancy rates of 20% (&gt;twice Japan's at its bubble peak), real and potential liquidations of Evergrande and Country Garden, and bankruptcy of Zhongzhi shadow-banking group. 
3% FAI growth underpinned 5.2% RGDP growth in 2023 despite low base. RGDP growth in 2024 will be 4%, and less in the medium-term as FAI and non-Russia exports stagnate.  


China's Growth Constrained by Crisis of Industrial & RE Over-Capacity

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul><li>Foreign confidence remains a massive issue for investment and equity pricing.</li><li>Efforts for diplomatic damage control seem to be a cheap option when contrasted to the domestic issues related to adding more leverage to the system as an alternative.</li><li>Domestic confidence is arguably even lower with households seeing little light at the end of the tunnel. We can see why they won’t.</li></ul>

Foreign confidence remains a massive issue for investment and equity pricing.Efforts for diplomatic damage control seem to be a cheap option when contrasted to the domestic issues related to adding more leverage to the system as an alternative.Domestic confidence is arguably even lower with households seeing little light at the end of the tunnel. We can see why they won’t.

EM by EM #35:  China 2024: Keeping the Beast Alive

Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

Technical Analysis

<ul><li>At the beginning of the week, I was determined to have this post with a more bullish tone. Maybe it is a contrarian indicator.</li><li>But as of yesterday's market, I see that my efforts were rather over-optimistic.</li><li>The note is what is in front of me rather than speculating we are at the change in trend.</li></ul>

At the beginning of the week, I was determined to have this post with a more bullish tone. Maybe it is a contrarian indicator.But as of yesterday's market, I see that my efforts were rather over-optimistic.The note is what is in front of me rather than speculating we are at the change in trend.

HSI Properties, Link RIET, HSI Financials, China Merchants Bank, and ICBC

<ul>
<li>Despite cumulative trade surpluses of US$215bn for Jan-Apr'22, foreign reserves declined by US$130bn, suggesting substantial capital flight. China's ability to ease monetary policy is severely constrained. </li>
<li>China's M2 money supply is up 500% since Aug'08 (pre-GFC), while US M2 has only expanded 180% over the period. China's record monetary growth has funded massive property/industrial over-capacity.  </li>
<li>Real GDP is unlikely to exceed 4.5% growth in 2022. Global monetary tightening will rein-in China's property market, and constrain FAI growth, likely tipping the financial system towards crisis.  </li>
</ul>


Despite cumulative trade surpluses of US$215bn for Jan-Apr'22, foreign reserves declined by US$130bn, suggesting substantial capital flight. China's ability to ease monetary policy is severely constrained. 
China's M2 money supply is up 500% since Aug'08 (pre-GFC), while US M2 has only expanded 180% over the period. China's record monetary growth has funded massive property/industrial over-capacity.  
Real GDP is unlikely to exceed 4.5% growth in 2022. Global monetary tightening will rein-in China's property market, and constrain FAI growth, likely tipping the financial system towards crisis.  


China Faces the Perfect Storm: Global Tightening, Capital Flight, Overcapacity

China

iShares China CNY Bond UCITS ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in Ireland. The Fund tracks the performances of the Bloomberg Barclays China Treasury + Policy Bank Total Return Index USD. Settlement: ICSD.

iShares China CNY Bond UCITS ETF (CNYB NA)

iShares China CNY Bond UCITS ETF (CNYB NA)

Is China Cracking?

Latest daily economic momentum data from on-going official releases highlight a sudden dip in the Asian and specifically the Chinese economy from...

Michael J. Howell

China's Growth Constrained by Crisis of Industrial & RE Over-Capacity

PBoC's recent rate cuts are unlikely to sufficiently address China's real estate crisis and economic slowdown, with challenges including high...

Prasenjit K. Basu

EM by EM #35: China 2024: Keeping the Beast Alive

We will be watching the Chinese credit impulse closely for clues on whether to take on positive bets on China and China proxies in 2024.

Steno Research

HSI Properties, Link RIET, HSI Financials, China Merchants Bank, and ICBC

At the beginning of the week, I was determined to have this post with a more bullish tone. Maybe it is a contrarian indicator.

Untying The Gordian Knot

China Faces the Perfect Storm: Global Tightening, Capital Flight, Overcapacity

$215bn trade surplus in Jan-Apr'22, but FX reserves fell $130bn. Global tightening constrains China's ability to boost liquidity. Property...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Is China Cracking?

Latest daily economic momentum data from on-going official releases highlight a sudden dip in the Asian and specifically the Chinese economy from...

Michael J. Howell

China's Growth Constrained by Crisis of Industrial & RE Over-Capacity

​PBoC's recent rate cuts are unlikely to sufficiently address China's real estate crisis and economic slowdown, with challenges including high...

Prasenjit K. Basu

EM by EM #35: China 2024: Keeping the Beast Alive

We will be watching the Chinese credit impulse closely for clues on whether to take on positive bets on China and China proxies in 2024.

Steno Research

HSI Properties, Link RIET, HSI Financials, China Merchants Bank, and ICBC

At the beginning of the week, I was determined to have this post with a more bullish tone. Maybe it is a contrarian indicator.

Untying The Gordian Knot

China Faces the Perfect Storm: Global Tightening, Capital Flight, Overcapacity

$215bn trade surplus in Jan-Apr'22, but FX reserves fell $130bn. Global tightening constrains China's ability to boost liquidity. Property...

Prasenjit K. Basu

PBoC's recent rate cuts are unlikely to sufficiently address China's real estate crisis and economic slowdown, with challenges including high...