ASEAN (Indo) & China-focused. Ex-Deputy HoR UBS.

Johannes Salim, CFA

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>A close examination of Indo's detailed Balance of Payment (BOP) in 1Q17 reveals that Indo macro fundamentals remain strong.</li>
<li>1Q17 Current Account Deficit (CAD) remained around 1% of GDP (well below IMF's 3% threshold), illustrating the importance of higher commodity prices/exports.</li>
<li>Considerable surplus in 1Q17 Financial Account (mainly a big boost from portfolio investment) reflected Indo as a beneficiary of global reflation trade as well.</li>
<li>Mar 2017's forex reserve was close to an all time highs.</li>
</ul><p>In…</p>


A close examination of Indo's detailed Balance of Payment (BOP) in 1Q17 reveals that Indo macro fundamentals remain strong.
1Q17 Current Account Deficit (CAD) remained around 1% of GDP (well below IMF's 3% threshold), illustrating the importance of higher commodity prices/exports.
Considerable surplus in 1Q17 Financial Account (mainly a big boost from portfolio investment) reflected Indo as a beneficiary of global reflation trade as well.
Mar 2017's forex reserve was close to an all time highs.
In…

Indo Macro, How Is Your Achilles' Heel? - Part II

Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Asia Economist and CEO

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

<ul><li>The growing appeal of hard-line Islam continues to threaten Indonesia's moderate Muslim construct and with a number individuals starting to move actively against the President, the challenges are mounting for President Jokowi.</li><li>Following failed efforts to secure a win for his protégé, Ahok, President Jokowi has lost political momentum, but there is still hope.</li><li>Efforts to weaken the appeal of religious extremism continue with the added support of the world's largest Islamic organisation vying for a modern reinterpretation of Shariah Law.</li><li>Most importantly, President Jokowi has proven his ability to tactfully operate the levers of power in Indonesia and will be sure to regain the political initiative.</li></ul>

The growing appeal of hard-line Islam continues to threaten Indonesia's moderate Muslim construct and with a number individuals starting to move actively against the President, the challenges are mounting for President Jokowi.Following failed efforts to secure a win for his protégé, Ahok, President Jokowi has lost political momentum, but there is still hope.Efforts to weaken the appeal of religious extremism continue with the added support of the world's largest Islamic organisation vying for a modern reinterpretation of Shariah Law.Most importantly, President Jokowi has proven his ability to tactfully operate the levers of power in Indonesia and will be sure to regain the political initiative.

Indonesia: Challenges Mounting; President Must Act Fast

Economist, Centennial Asia Advisors

Jason Tan

Economist

<ul><li>
<strong>President leads the charge against extremists:</strong> President Jokowi has long realised that he was the real target of the extremist campaign against his protégé, Jakarta’s Chinese-Christian governor, Basuki Tjahaja Purnama (or Ahok), who is on trial for allegedly blaspheming the holy Koran. He is now pushing back hard. Five men were arrested ahead of a planned anti-Ahok rally and charged with planning to topple the government. The suspects include key members from hard-line Islamic groups. He has…</li></ul>


President leads the charge against extremists: President Jokowi has long realised that he was the real target of the extremist campaign against his protégé, Jakarta’s Chinese-Christian governor, Basuki Tjahaja Purnama (or Ahok), who is on trial for allegedly blaspheming the holy Koran. He is now pushing back hard. Five men were arrested ahead of a planned anti-Ahok rally and charged with planning to topple the government. The suspects include key members from hard-line Islamic groups. He has…

Indonesia: Jokowi Fights Back Against Extremism

Making sense of the Global Market, Euromonitor International Ltd.

Yu Mitsuhashi

Making sense of the Global Market

Euromonitor International Ltd.

We are a global market research company focused on industries, countries, economies and consumers worldwide. Our cross-country comparable research helps your organisation identify opportunities and develop growth strategies in countries and regions across the globe. With offices around the world, 1,200 analysts in 100 countries and market research on every key trend and driver, we give you powerful access to the real story behind consumer change.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h2>Headlines</h2><ul>
<li>In 2016 volume sales of personal care appliances grow by 3% to reach 590,000 units</li>
<li>Personal care appliances continue to be purchased mainly by middle upper income households</li>
<li>Hair care appliances registers the strongest retail volume growth of 3%</li>
<li>Average unit prices increases by 2% in current terms</li>
<li>Procter &amp; Gamble Home Products Indonesia leads the category with a 22% share of volume sales</li>
<li>Over the forecast period personal care appliances set to record a volume CAGR of 3% to approach sales of…</li>
</ul>

Headlines
In 2016 volume sales of personal care appliances grow by 3% to reach 590,000 units
Personal care appliances continue to be purchased mainly by middle upper income households
Hair care appliances registers the strongest retail volume growth of 3%
Average unit prices increases by 2% in current terms
Procter &amp; Gamble Home Products Indonesia leads the category with a 22% share of volume sales
Over the forecast period personal care appliances set to record a volume CAGR of 3% to approach sales of…


Sector Capsule: Personal Care Appliances in Indonesia

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance, Ecstrat

John-Paul Smith

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
​
More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<p>Of the three, Indonesia is by far the most impacted by the rising dollar and renewed concern about the Chinese economy and financial markets. The reaction earlier in the year from the Indonesian government to JP Morgan’s downgrade of the equity market betrays an underlying nervousness about the sustainability of foreign funding, despite the improvement in the fiscal and current account deficits, since the days of the ‘fragile five’ in 2013, mainly due to subsidy reform and the lower oil price…</p>

Of the three, Indonesia is by far the most impacted by the rising dollar and renewed concern about the Chinese economy and financial markets. The reaction earlier in the year from the Indonesian government to JP Morgan’s downgrade of the equity market betrays an underlying nervousness about the sustainability of foreign funding, despite the improvement in the fiscal and current account deficits, since the days of the ‘fragile five’ in 2013, mainly due to subsidy reform and the lower oil price…

Thailand, Philippines and Indonesia: Not Compelling but Relatively Low Beta in 2017 (Part 7 of 7)

Indonesia

iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF seeks investment results that correspond to the performance of the MSCI Indonesia Investable Market Index.

iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF (EIDO US)

Indo Macro, How Is Your Achilles' Heel? - Part II

A close examination of Indo's detailed Balance of Payment (BOP) in 1Q17 reveals that Indo macro fundamentals remain strong. 1Q17 Current Account...

Johannes Salim, CFA

Indonesia: Challenges Mounting; President Must Act Fast

The growing appeal of hard-line Islam continues to threaten Indonesia's moderate Muslim construct and with a number individuals starting to move...