Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

REAL-Economics.com

Macroeconomics

The tight race for Jakarta governor remains too close to call, so political uncertainty will be prolonged. While Jokowi's coalition will be weakened if the secularist ticket fails to win the runoff for Jakarta governorship, the very fact of a tight contest is a testament to the resilience of Indonesia's democracy.Today's Jakarta gubernatorial election is increasingly seen as a proxy fight among the three current titans of Indonesian politics -- incumbent President Joko Widodo, his predecessor…

The tight race for Jakarta governor remains too close to call, so political uncertainty will be prolonged. While Jokowi's coalition will be weakened if the secularist ticket fails to win the runoff for Jakarta governorship, the very fact of a tight contest is a testament to the resilience of Indonesia's democracy.Today's Jakarta gubernatorial election is increasingly seen as a proxy fight among the three current titans of Indonesian politics -- incumbent President Joko Widodo, his predecessor…

Indonesia: Democracy a Long Term Stabilizer, Despite Episodic Ructions

Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Asia Economist and CEO

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

<ul>
<li>
Growth underwhelms in 4Q16: The Indonesian economy grew 4.9% y/y in 4Q16, down from 5.0% in 3Q16, capping off a disappointing year. Overall, the economy grew 5.02% in 2016, up from 4.88% in 2015, but below the government’s 5.3% target.</li>
<li>
Private consumption continues to be a strong driver of Indonesian growth. Exports, which were bolstered by higher commodity prices, grew 4.2% y/y, up from a 5.6% contraction in 3Q16. Fiscal spending was especially tepid, contracting 4.0% in 4Q16, down from the…</li>
</ul>



Growth underwhelms in 4Q16: The Indonesian economy grew 4.9% y/y in 4Q16, down from 5.0% in 3Q16, capping off a disappointing year. Overall, the economy grew 5.02% in 2016, up from 4.88% in 2015, but below the government’s 5.3% target.

Private consumption continues to be a strong driver of Indonesian growth. Exports, which were bolstered by higher commodity prices, grew 4.2% y/y, up from a 5.6% contraction in 3Q16. Fiscal spending was especially tepid, contracting 4.0% in 4Q16, down from the…


Indonesia: Growth Contingent upon Targeted Fiscal Stimulus

ASEAN (Indo) & China-focused. Ex-Deputy HoR UBS.

Johannes Salim, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The correlation between Emerging Markets Asia and US market has reversed to a positive coefficient YTD (a typical global bull market's sign).</li>
<li>Our chart of the day reveals that Indonesia (Indo) and Philippines are the least vulnerable to trade war risk.</li>
<li>We are bearish on China's macro fundamentals and concerned of looming intense trade negotiations with the US.</li>
</ul>As we have been watching CNBC's US market coverage (its TV show is called "Opening Bell") past two weeks, we can't help but think that there…


The correlation between Emerging Markets Asia and US market has reversed to a positive coefficient YTD (a typical global bull market's sign).
Our chart of the day reveals that Indonesia (Indo) and Philippines are the least vulnerable to trade war risk.
We are bearish on China's macro fundamentals and concerned of looming intense trade negotiations with the US.
As we have been watching CNBC's US market coverage (its TV show is called "Opening Bell") past two weeks, we can't help but think that there…

Asia Market Strategy: Will The Bulls Win in 2017 on The Back of Trumponomics?

<ul>
<li>
Trump stepped back from direct confrontation with China: In his phone call with Chinese President Xi, Trump acceded to China’s request to honour the longstanding “One China” policy, which he had appeared to question in his tweets. But the potential downside risks in the bilateral relationship were made clear by reports of an “unsafe” interaction between a Chinese surveillance plane and a US Navy P-3C Orion surveillance aircraft on the same day.</li>
<li>
North Korean missile test not a huge deal: The test…</li>
</ul>



Trump stepped back from direct confrontation with China: In his phone call with Chinese President Xi, Trump acceded to China’s request to honour the longstanding “One China” policy, which he had appeared to question in his tweets. But the potential downside risks in the bilateral relationship were made clear by reports of an “unsafe” interaction between a Chinese surveillance plane and a US Navy P-3C Orion surveillance aircraft on the same day.

North Korean missile test not a huge deal: The test…


Geopolitics: Trump Refines Approach to China

<ul>
<li>Indonesia's (Indo's) 4Q16 Current Account Deficit (CAD) has considerably improved to 0.8% of GDP, the first quarter since 1Q12 in which CAD/GDP ratio dropped below 1%.</li>
<li>Financial account remained in considerable surplus, mainly thanks to repatriation of assets following tax amnesty program and direct/portfolio investment remaining healthy.</li>
<li>Fundamentals of Balance of Payment (BOP) and subsequently forex reserves have strengthened.  </li>
</ul>Bank Indonesia (BI) released Indo's 4Q16 BOP last Friday (2/10)…


Indonesia's (Indo's) 4Q16 Current Account Deficit (CAD) has considerably improved to 0.8% of GDP, the first quarter since 1Q12 in which CAD/GDP ratio dropped below 1%.
Financial account remained in considerable surplus, mainly thanks to repatriation of assets following tax amnesty program and direct/portfolio investment remaining healthy.
Fundamentals of Balance of Payment (BOP) and subsequently forex reserves have strengthened.  
Bank Indonesia (BI) released Indo's 4Q16 BOP last Friday (2/10)…

Indonesia

iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF seeks investment results that correspond to the performance of the MSCI Indonesia Investable Market Index.

iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF (EIDO US)

Indonesia: Democracy a Long Term Stabilizer, Despite Episodic Ructions

The tight race for Jakarta governor remains too close to call, so political uncertainty will be prolonged. While Jokowi's coalition will be...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Indonesia: Growth Contingent upon Targeted Fiscal Stimulus

Growth underwhelms in 4Q16: The Indonesian economy grew 4.9% y/y in 4Q16, down from 5.0% in 3Q16, capping off a disappointing year. Overall, the...

Manu Bhaskaran

Asia Market Strategy: Will The Bulls Win in 2017 on The Back of Trumponomics?

The correlation between Emerging Markets Asia and US market has reversed to a positive coefficient YTD (a typical global bull market's sign). Our...

Johannes Salim, CFA

Geopolitics: Trump Refines Approach to China

Trump stepped back from direct confrontation with China: In his phone call with Chinese President Xi, Trump acceded to China’s request to honour...

Manu Bhaskaran

Indo Macro, How Is Your Achilles' Heel?

Indonesia's (Indo's) 4Q16 Current Account Deficit (CAD) has considerably improved to 0.8% of GDP, the first quarter since 1Q12 in which CAD/GDP...

Johannes Salim, CFA