ASEAN (Indo) & China-focused. Ex-Deputy HoR UBS.

Johannes Salim, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The correlation between Emerging Markets Asia and US market has reversed to a positive coefficient YTD (a typical global bull market's sign).</li>
<li>Our chart of the day reveals that Indonesia (Indo) and Philippines are the least vulnerable to trade war risk.</li>
<li>We are bearish on China's macro fundamentals and concerned of looming intense trade negotiations with the US.</li>
</ul>As we have been watching CNBC's US market coverage (its TV show is called "Opening Bell") past two weeks, we can't help but think that there…


The correlation between Emerging Markets Asia and US market has reversed to a positive coefficient YTD (a typical global bull market's sign).
Our chart of the day reveals that Indonesia (Indo) and Philippines are the least vulnerable to trade war risk.
We are bearish on China's macro fundamentals and concerned of looming intense trade negotiations with the US.
As we have been watching CNBC's US market coverage (its TV show is called "Opening Bell") past two weeks, we can't help but think that there…

Asia Market Strategy: Will The Bulls Win in 2017 on The Back of Trumponomics?

Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Asia Economist and CEO

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>
Trump stepped back from direct confrontation with China: In his phone call with Chinese President Xi, Trump acceded to China’s request to honour the longstanding “One China” policy, which he had appeared to question in his tweets. But the potential downside risks in the bilateral relationship were made clear by reports of an “unsafe” interaction between a Chinese surveillance plane and a US Navy P-3C Orion surveillance aircraft on the same day.</li>
<li>
North Korean missile test not a huge deal: The test…</li>
</ul>



Trump stepped back from direct confrontation with China: In his phone call with Chinese President Xi, Trump acceded to China’s request to honour the longstanding “One China” policy, which he had appeared to question in his tweets. But the potential downside risks in the bilateral relationship were made clear by reports of an “unsafe” interaction between a Chinese surveillance plane and a US Navy P-3C Orion surveillance aircraft on the same day.

North Korean missile test not a huge deal: The test…


Geopolitics: Trump Refines Approach to China

<ul>
<li>Indonesia's (Indo's) 4Q16 Current Account Deficit (CAD) has considerably improved to 0.8% of GDP, the first quarter since 1Q12 in which CAD/GDP ratio dropped below 1%.</li>
<li>Financial account remained in considerable surplus, mainly thanks to repatriation of assets following tax amnesty program and direct/portfolio investment remaining healthy.</li>
<li>Fundamentals of Balance of Payment (BOP) and subsequently forex reserves have strengthened.  </li>
</ul>Bank Indonesia (BI) released Indo's 4Q16 BOP last Friday (2/10)…


Indonesia's (Indo's) 4Q16 Current Account Deficit (CAD) has considerably improved to 0.8% of GDP, the first quarter since 1Q12 in which CAD/GDP ratio dropped below 1%.
Financial account remained in considerable surplus, mainly thanks to repatriation of assets following tax amnesty program and direct/portfolio investment remaining healthy.
Fundamentals of Balance of Payment (BOP) and subsequently forex reserves have strengthened.  
Bank Indonesia (BI) released Indo's 4Q16 BOP last Friday (2/10)…

Investing in high growth Asian frontier economies., Asia Frontier Capital

Scott Osheroff

Investing in high growth Asian frontier economies.

Asia Frontier Capital

Asia Frontier Capital Ltd. is a pioneering fund management company based in Hong Kong that specializes in investing in high growth Asian frontier economies by managing the AFC Asia Frontier Fund , AFC Iraq Fund and the AFC Vietnam Fund.

The AFC Asia Frontier Fund invests in public equities of Asian frontier countries that are seeing increasing consumption due to favorable demographic trends, rising incomes and high GDP growth. The fund invests in listed equities of companies that have their principal business activities in Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, Iraq, Laos, Maldives, Mongolia, Myanmar (Burma), Nepal, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, Sri Lanka and Vietnam. The AFC Asia Frontier Fund is positioned to take advantage of the continuing economic shifts in these countries and offers high returns combined with significant diversification opportunities. This fund is directed by the founder and CEO of Asia Frontier Capital, Thomas Hugger, who has been investing in frontier markets across Asia and Africa for more than 20 years.

The AFC Iraq Fund was launched on the 26th June 2015 and aims to achieve long-term capital appreciation for investors by capturing value and growth potential in the post conflict high-growth & resource rich Iraq market. The fund emphasises long term investment horizon to truly capture the opportunity in Iraq. The fund's investable universe consists of locally listed companies that have their principal business activities in Iraq as well as foreign listed companies that have the majority of the business in Iraq as a whole including the prosperous Kurdish Region of Iraq (KRI). The AFC Iraq Fund offers access to investments in post conflict recovery potential of Iraq, including the KRI, and/or stability in its territory. The AFC Iraq Fund is managed by Asia Frontier Capital (Iraq) Limited, Cayman Islands under the executive leadership team of Thomas Hugger (CEO & Fund Manager) and Ahmed Tabaqchali (CIO) who have more than 47 years of investment experience as well as an extensive background covering global, emerging, frontier and MENA markets.

The AFC Vietnam Fund invests exclusively in listed Vietnamese equities to capture value in growth companies with a focus on the small to medium size companies. This market segment offers a unique investment opportunity as the valuation gap between large- and small-cap stocks in Vietnam is presently much wider than in comparable neighboring markets and the valuations are significantly depressed versus their regional peers. The fund adopts a fundamental-quantitative approach and employs an in-house earnings model to identify attractive companies where we see high growth opportunities. In conjunction with targeting the maximum upside potential the portfolio has been structured to mitigate corporate government and liquidity risks. The fund invests in a diversified portfolio of 70-90 attractively valued companies to carefully control concentration risk.  This approach allows the fund to sell, or buy, positions without having a significant market impact. The fund is directed under the executive leadership of Thomas Hugger and Andreas Vogelsanger who have more than 50 years combined experience managing investments in frontier markets, Asia and around the world.

For more information about the fund, management team and investment strategy please contact us at info@asiafrontiercapital.com.

In line with our process of being on the ground in the countries we invest in, Scott Osheroff, Analyst at Asia Frontier Capital, travelled to Myanmar and conducted meetings with portfolio companies and other companies on our shortlist. The photos in this article are all by AFC.

In line with our process of being on the ground in the countries we invest in, Scott Osheroff, Analyst at Asia Frontier Capital, travelled to Myanmar and conducted meetings with portfolio companies and other companies on our shortlist. The photos in this article are all by AFC.

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

REAL-Economics.com

With CPI inflation below 3.5% YoY in January, and the current account likely to have improved sharply in 4Q 2016, we expect a 25bp rate cut at this month's monetary policy meeting. The Jakarta gubernatorial election is a political wildcard, although a Black Swan outcome is looking less likely: Ahok needs to win if President Jokowi is not to be destabilized halfway through his first term.Robust exports bolster the quarterly trade surplus to a 5-year high in 4Q 2016. The export rebound stayed on…

With CPI inflation below 3.5% YoY in January, and the current account likely to have improved sharply in 4Q 2016, we expect a 25bp rate cut at this month's monetary policy meeting. The Jakarta gubernatorial election is a political wildcard, although a Black Swan outcome is looking less likely: Ahok needs to win if President Jokowi is not to be destabilized halfway through his first term.Robust exports bolster the quarterly trade surplus to a 5-year high in 4Q 2016. The export rebound stayed on…

Indonesia

iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF seeks investment results that correspond to the performance of the MSCI Indonesia Investable Market Index.

iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF (EIDO US)

Asia Market Strategy: Will The Bulls Win in 2017 on The Back of Trumponomics?

The correlation between Emerging Markets Asia and US market has reversed to a positive coefficient YTD (a typical global bull market's sign). Our...

Johannes Salim, CFA

Geopolitics: Trump Refines Approach to China

Trump stepped back from direct confrontation with China: In his phone call with Chinese President Xi, Trump acceded to China’s request to honour...

Manu Bhaskaran

Indo Macro, How Is Your Achilles' Heel?

Indonesia's (Indo's) 4Q16 Current Account Deficit (CAD) has considerably improved to 0.8% of GDP, the first quarter since 1Q12 in which CAD/GDP...

Johannes Salim, CFA

Myanmar Travel Report

In line with our process of being on the ground in the countries we invest in, Scott Osheroff, Analyst at Asia Frontier Capital, travelled to...

Asia Frontier Capital

Indonesia: On Track for a Rate Cut Soon

With CPI inflation below 3.5% YoY in January, and the current account likely to have improved sharply in 4Q 2016, we expect a 25bp rate cut at this...

Prasenjit K. Basu