Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>All imports into the US will face a minimum 10% tariff (with a few product exceptions). Countries face differential tariffs depending on their own effective protection against US exports. </li>
<li>China exports to US (54% tariff) suffer a near-crippling blow, with Vietnam (46%), Bangladesh (37%), Indonesia &amp; Taiwan (32%) hammered too. India, Korea, Japan, UK to benefit from trade diversion. </li>
<li>There'll be substantial re-shoring of US manufacturing over 2-10 years, boosting the US economy. Inflation will be a near-term problem, but most countries are likely to mutually negotiate tariffs down. </li>
</ul>


All imports into the US will face a minimum 10% tariff (with a few product exceptions). Countries face differential tariffs depending on their own effective protection against US exports. 
China exports to US (54% tariff) suffer a near-crippling blow, with Vietnam (46%), Bangladesh (37%), Indonesia &amp; Taiwan (32%) hammered too. India, Korea, Japan, UK to benefit from trade diversion. 
There'll be substantial re-shoring of US manufacturing over 2-10 years, boosting the US economy. Inflation will be a near-term problem, but most countries are likely to mutually negotiate tariffs down. 


US Reciprocal Tariff Scheme Is Likely to Boost US Manufacturing in Time; Positive

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>The Bank of Korea is expected to cut interest rates to 2.75% on 25 February 2025. The decision, however, is not expected to be unanimous and some analysts argue against.</li>
<li>Historical data from 120 BoK announcements and subsequent moves in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY)</a> is examined.</li>
<li>Options market pricing seems to lean toward a "surprise and no-change" outcome. Traders can seek opportunities with short straddles or long puts depending on anticipated outcomes.</li>
</ul>


The Bank of Korea is expected to cut interest rates to 2.75% on 25 February 2025. The decision, however, is not expected to be unanimous and some analysts argue against.
Historical data from 120 BoK announcements and subsequent moves in the Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY) is examined.
Options market pricing seems to lean toward a "surprise and no-change" outcome. Traders can seek opportunities with short straddles or long puts depending on anticipated outcomes.


KOSPI 200 - Upcoming BOK Rate Decision: Navigating Market Moves and Profit Opportunities

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul><li>The USD has been on a roll since the firm US inflation report earlier in the week and we are approaching the point where European trade balances will be impacted substantially by the rally in (energy) commodities.</li><li>Even European Nat Gas seems to be on the move and pairing that move with the broader rise in Oil and Copper leads to a likely “flip” in the Eurozone trade balance.</li><li>When the Euro-zone trade balance shifts from positive to negative, we typically see an impact on the trend of the EUR, which is probably the last thing the ECB needs right now.</li></ul>

The USD has been on a roll since the firm US inflation report earlier in the week and we are approaching the point where European trade balances will be impacted substantially by the rally in (energy) commodities.Even European Nat Gas seems to be on the move and pairing that move with the broader rise in Oil and Copper leads to a likely “flip” in the Eurozone trade balance.When the Euro-zone trade balance shifts from positive to negative, we typically see an impact on the trend of the EUR, which is probably the last thing the ECB needs right now.

Portfolio Watch: The USD Wrecking Ball Is Back

Elias Lisberg Glistrup

<ul><li>Welcome to this week’s rundown of our portfolio, its performance, and our most clear-cut conviction for the period ahead.</li><li>The cocktail of better economic activity and geopolitical tensions provided tailwinds for our long crude bet, which reached its take profit level Tuesday, and hence we are out of our oil position with a significant profit.</li><li>Most notably, and reflecting our still cyclically tilted portfolio allocations, we see growth trending higher in the cyclical parts of the economy through April on our models and nowcasts.</li></ul>

Welcome to this week’s rundown of our portfolio, its performance, and our most clear-cut conviction for the period ahead.The cocktail of better economic activity and geopolitical tensions provided tailwinds for our long crude bet, which reached its take profit level Tuesday, and hence we are out of our oil position with a significant profit.Most notably, and reflecting our still cyclically tilted portfolio allocations, we see growth trending higher in the cyclical parts of the economy through April on our models and nowcasts.

Portfolio Watch: The Real World Is Reflating Again

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Welcome to our latest edition of Portfolio Watch, our weekly deep-dive into prevailing market trends and our portfolio strategies.</li><li>In this updated iteration of our series, we’ll explore the latest updates in both our Macro Alpha Portfolio and our Digital Assets Portfolio.</li><li>Additionally, we’re excited to announce that we’re just about ready to introduce to you our quantitative portfolio.</li></ul>

Welcome to our latest edition of Portfolio Watch, our weekly deep-dive into prevailing market trends and our portfolio strategies.In this updated iteration of our series, we’ll explore the latest updates in both our Macro Alpha Portfolio and our Digital Assets Portfolio.Additionally, we’re excited to announce that we’re just about ready to introduce to you our quantitative portfolio.

South Korea

iShares MSCI South Korea ETF is an exchange traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the performance of the MSCI Korea 25-50 USD Index. The fund holds companies of all market caps which are primarily traded on the Korean exchange. The ETF's holdings are primarily focused in the consumer discretionary, financial and information technology sectors.

iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (EWY US)

US Reciprocal Tariff Scheme Is Likely to Boost US Manufacturing in Time; Positive

US imposes 10%-54% 'reciprocal' tariffs, hitting China hard but benefiting UK, Korea, Japan, India. Reshoring of manufacturing to boost US...

Prasenjit K. Basu

KOSPI 200 - Upcoming BOK Rate Decision: Navigating Market Moves and Profit Opportunities

Timely reminder of the anticipated 0.25% Rate Cut by the Bank of Korea tomorrow, 25 Feb. The outcome of the decision is far from certain, and...

Gaudenz Schneider

Portfolio Watch: The USD Wrecking Ball Is Back

The USD has been on a roll since the firm US inflation report earlier in the week and we are approaching the point where European trade balances...

Steno Research

Portfolio Watch: The Real World Is Reflating Again

Welcome to this week’s rundown of our portfolio, its performance, and our most clear-cut conviction for the period ahead. The cocktail of better...

Steno Research

Portfolio Watch: Sea of cyclical green

Welcome to our latest edition of Portfolio Watch, our weekly deep-dive into prevailing market trends and our portfolio strategies. In this updated...

Steno Research

US Reciprocal Tariff Scheme Is Likely to Boost US Manufacturing in Time; Positive

​US imposes 10%-54% 'reciprocal' tariffs, hitting China hard but benefiting UK, Korea, Japan, India. Reshoring of manufacturing to boost US...

Prasenjit K. Basu

KOSPI 200 - Upcoming BOK Rate Decision: Navigating Market Moves and Profit Opportunities

Timely reminder of the anticipated 0.25% Rate Cut by the Bank of Korea tomorrow, 25 Feb. The outcome of the decision is far from certain, and...

Gaudenz Schneider

Portfolio Watch: The USD Wrecking Ball Is Back

The USD has been on a roll since the firm US inflation report earlier in the week and we are approaching the point where European trade balances...

Steno Research

Portfolio Watch: The Real World Is Reflating Again

Welcome to this week’s rundown of our portfolio, its performance, and our most clear-cut conviction for the period ahead. The cocktail of better...

Steno Research

Portfolio Watch: Sea of cyclical green

Welcome to our latest edition of Portfolio Watch, our weekly deep-dive into prevailing market trends and our portfolio strategies. In this updated...

Steno Research

US imposes 10%-54% 'reciprocal' tariffs, hitting China hard but benefiting UK, Korea, Japan, India. Reshoring of manufacturing to boost US...