Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Real GDP grew 8.7% in 2025, after a surge to 12.7%YoY growth in Q4'25. Soaring AI- and cloud-computing demand for semiconductors caused the trade surplus to nearly double in 2025. </li>
<li>Inflation moderated to a 5-year low of 0.67%YoY in Jan'26; the US trade deal will keep inflation tame. We expect 12.5bp rate cuts at both June and September CBC meetings. </li>
<li>We expect 11% real GDP growth in H1'26 and 9% growth for 2026. Stay OVERWEIGHT Taiwan, particularly its world-leading technology sector. </li>
</ul>


Real GDP grew 8.7% in 2025, after a surge to 12.7%YoY growth in Q4'25. Soaring AI- and cloud-computing demand for semiconductors caused the trade surplus to nearly double in 2025. 
Inflation moderated to a 5-year low of 0.67%YoY in Jan'26; the US trade deal will keep inflation tame. We expect 12.5bp rate cuts at both June and September CBC meetings. 
We expect 11% real GDP growth in H1'26 and 9% growth for 2026. Stay OVERWEIGHT Taiwan, particularly its world-leading technology sector. 


Taiwan: Global Growth Leader Is the Genuine Goldilocks Economy

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Today's election is likely to result in a narrow win for the DPP's Lai Ching-te, but with a hung legislature, requiring the DPP to form a coalition with Ko's TPP. </li>
<li>This outcome would be positive for markets, as it would circumscribe Lai's ability to openly advocate independence. Unlike Chen (2000-08), he would not be hemmed in by the KMT ascendant. </li>
<li>If the KMT's Hou (also native Taiwanese) wins, he would face not only a hung parliament, but also dissension within the party. After initial euphoria, this would be market-negative.</li>
</ul>


Today's election is likely to result in a narrow win for the DPP's Lai Ching-te, but with a hung legislature, requiring the DPP to form a coalition with Ko's TPP. 
This outcome would be positive for markets, as it would circumscribe Lai's ability to openly advocate independence. Unlike Chen (2000-08), he would not be hemmed in by the KMT ascendant. 
If the KMT's Hou (also native Taiwanese) wins, he would face not only a hung parliament, but also dissension within the party. After initial euphoria, this would be market-negative.


Taiwan: Election Likely to Deliver a Hung Legislature, Constraining DPP's Autonomy

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF / Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Volatility regimes split: VIX returns to moderate (19.2), VXEEM remains elevated (28.4) — EM risk premium not fully cleared; broad EM FX strength provides partial offset.</li>
<li>Five of seven markets register Mild Bull scores; Taiwan and South Korea lead, India and China remain laggards on weak absolute positioning.</li>
<li>Tactical bias is cautiously constructive; key risk is USD reversal unwinding the CNY/KRW/AUD FX tailwind currently supporting multiple market scores.</li>
</ul>


Volatility regimes split: VIX returns to moderate (19.2), VXEEM remains elevated (28.4) — EM risk premium not fully cleared; broad EM FX strength provides partial offset.
Five of seven markets register Mild Bull scores; Taiwan and South Korea lead, India and China remain laggards on weak absolute positioning.
Tactical bias is cautiously constructive; key risk is USD reversal unwinding the CNY/KRW/AUD FX tailwind currently supporting multiple market scores.


Pan-Asian Equity Sentiment | EM FX Lifts Five Markets to Mild Bull · W/E 10 Apr 2026

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul><li>The cyclical rotation is slowly but slowly rolling and if central banks add rate cuts to this mix, we are staring directly into the melt up.</li><li>Welcome to our weekly Portfolio Watch, where we assess the tradeable themes and discuss our portfolio composition.</li><li>In this revamped version of the series, we will touch upon the developments in our Macro Alpha Portfolio and our Digital Assets Portfolio.</li></ul>

The cyclical rotation is slowly but slowly rolling and if central banks add rate cuts to this mix, we are staring directly into the melt up.Welcome to our weekly Portfolio Watch, where we assess the tradeable themes and discuss our portfolio composition.In this revamped version of the series, we will touch upon the developments in our Macro Alpha Portfolio and our Digital Assets Portfolio.

Portfolio Watch: What if We Add a Rate Cut to This Fire..

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst, Pennock Idea Hub

Cam Hui

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst

Pennock Idea Hub

We are creators of independent equity research. The Pennock Idea Hub team are veterans of the investment industry. Much of our team has spent their careers at Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital Markets and Wood Gundy. We have taken every aspect of research back to the studs and returned to first principles. The Pennock Idea Hub marries the interests of the sell and buy side. 

We offer the best research for institutional investors by:

-Only publishing research from veteran analysts
-Eliminate the inherent conflicts of the traditional sell and buy side relationship
-Ensure our team is always accessible; collaboration with clients nurtures our collective success

Cross-Asset & Quantitative Research

<ul>
<li>The long-term structure of global markets is seeing a loss of leadership by U.S. equities and emerging new leadership in Europe.</li>
<li>The short-run outlook will depend on the results of earnings season.</li>
<li>Our base case calls for a choppy and range-bound market.Wait for the breakout, or breakdown.</li>
</ul>


The long-term structure of global markets is seeing a loss of leadership by U.S. equities and emerging new leadership in Europe.
The short-run outlook will depend on the results of earnings season.
Our base case calls for a choppy and range-bound market.Wait for the breakout, or breakdown.


United States

iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF's objective seeks to provide investment results that correspond to the performance of the Taiwanese market, as measured by the MSCI Taiwan 25/50 Index.

iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF (EWT US)

Taiwan: Global Growth Leader Is the Genuine Goldilocks Economy

RGDP growth surged 8.7% in 2025 as soaring chip demand enabled a near-doubling of the trade surplus. With RGDP growing 9%, inflation at 1% (with...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Taiwan: Election Likely to Deliver a Hung Legislature, Constraining DPP's Autonomy

Likely outcome of Lai as president, but with a hung legislature requiring a DPP-TPP coalition would be good for markets. China would be hostile,...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Pan-Asian Equity Sentiment | EM FX Lifts Five Markets to Mild Bull · W/E 10 Apr 2026

Positioning SENTIMENT SCREENER | Regional FX surge lifts five Asian markets to Mild Bull — Taiwan and Korea flash the strongest signals as vol...

Nico Rosti

Portfolio Watch: What if We Add a Rate Cut to This Fire..

The cyclical rotation is slowly but slowly rolling and if central banks add rate cuts to this mix, we are staring directly into the melt...

Steno Research

The Market Leaders Hiding in Plain Sight

The long-term structure of global markets is seeing a loss of leadership by U.S. equities and emerging new leadership in Europe.

Cam Hui

Taiwan: Global Growth Leader Is the Genuine Goldilocks Economy

​RGDP growth surged 8.7% in 2025 as soaring chip demand enabled a near-doubling of the trade surplus. With RGDP growing 9%, inflation at 1% (with...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Taiwan: Election Likely to Deliver a Hung Legislature, Constraining DPP's Autonomy

Likely outcome of Lai as president, but with a hung legislature requiring a DPP-TPP coalition would be good for markets. China would be hostile,...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Pan-Asian Equity Sentiment | EM FX Lifts Five Markets to Mild Bull · W/E 10 Apr 2026

Positioning SENTIMENT SCREENER | Regional FX surge lifts five Asian markets to Mild Bull — Taiwan and Korea flash the strongest signals as vol...

Nico Rosti

Portfolio Watch: What if We Add a Rate Cut to This Fire..

The cyclical rotation is slowly but slowly rolling and if central banks add rate cuts to this mix, we are staring directly into the melt...

Steno Research

The Market Leaders Hiding in Plain Sight

The long-term structure of global markets is seeing a loss of leadership by U.S. equities and emerging new leadership in Europe.

Cam Hui

RGDP growth surged 8.7% in 2025 as soaring chip demand enabled a near-doubling of the trade surplus. With RGDP growing 9%, inflation at 1% (with...