FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

Global investors heading into Japan equities may no longer be routinely hedging the JPY currency exposure. Equity investors, viewing the largely trendless major currency markets over recent years, albeit with some sizeable swings, and more recently a weaker USD, may be moving funds into Japanese and European equities without currency hedges.  These equity flows may be playing a bigger role in currency performance than in previous years when monetary policy divergence and relative interest rates dominated. US Economic momentum remains intact; GDP is set to rebound in Q2; the labor market is tightening; and gradual Fed tightening remains on track.  This may not be the time to sell the USD after its broad-based fall this year.  But Trump’s antagonistic ill-disciplined style of economic nationalism is a dead-weight on the USD. The US economy must continue to prove its mettle to ensure the USD does not continue to drop. The recent rebound in CNY, while eye-catching, doesn’t reflect any new economic development in China, and still leaves the CNY as one of the weakest currencies in Asia this year.  The AUD remains threatened by evidence of some slowing in demand and tightening credit conditions in China, and signs that the Australian housing market is peaking.

Global investors heading into Japan equities may no longer be routinely hedging the JPY currency exposure. Equity investors, viewing the largely trendless major currency markets over recent years, albeit with some sizeable swings, and more recently a weaker USD, may be moving funds into Japanese and European equities without currency hedges.  These equity flows may be playing a bigger role in currency performance than in previous years when monetary policy divergence and relative interest rates dominated. US Economic momentum remains intact; GDP is set to rebound in Q2; the labor market is tightening; and gradual Fed tightening remains on track.  This may not be the time to sell the USD after its broad-based fall this year.  But Trump’s antagonistic ill-disciplined style of economic nationalism is a dead-weight on the USD. The US economy must continue to prove its mettle to ensure the USD does not continue to drop. The recent rebound in CNY, while eye-catching, doesn’t reflect any new economic development in China, and still leaves the CNY as one of the weakest currencies in Asia this year.  The AUD remains threatened by evidence of some slowing in demand and tightening credit conditions in China, and signs that the Australian housing market is peaking.

Macro Strategist, Saxo Capital Markets

Kay Van-Petersen

Macro Strategist

Saxo Capital Markets

Event-Driven

iShares MSCI Global Min Vol Factor ETF / Event-Driven

iShares MSCI Global Min Vol Factor ETF (ACWV US)

<ul><li>The Fed's surprising dovishness led to confusion in the markets overnight</li><li>The Fed has moved the goalposts (again) on factors that would drive it to raise rates, its getting downright ludicrous</li><li>There is now a clear risk that the Fed will not move on rates in 2015 &amp; 2016 is an election year where we have historically never had a fed hike</li><li>Fed inaction brings on more pressure to is now on the ECB and BoJ</li></ul>

The Fed's surprising dovishness led to confusion in the markets overnightThe Fed has moved the goalposts (again) on factors that would drive it to raise rates, its getting downright ludicrousThere is now a clear risk that the Fed will not move on rates in 2015 &amp; 2016 is an election year where we have historically never had a fed hikeFed inaction brings on more pressure to is now on the ECB and BoJ

<ul><li>With US equities holding up, it is three days to the first hike in close to a decade</li><li>Even more important will be the language accompanying the hike</li><li>The Fed implied hike is at 28%, putting KVP squarely in the minority &ndash; what&rsquo;s new?</li><li>We take a quick look at potential tactical moves given a hike or no-hike scenario&nbsp;</li><li>The heat is up on emerging markets, given the downgrade of Brazil to junk status</li><li>Things need to get much worse before they get better for EMs &ndash; who's next?</li></ul>

With US equities holding up, it is three days to the first hike in close to a decadeEven more important will be the language accompanying the hikeThe Fed implied hike is at 28%, putting KVP squarely in the minority &ndash; what&rsquo;s new?We take a quick look at potential tactical moves given a hike or no-hike scenario&nbsp;The heat is up on emerging markets, given the downgrade of Brazil to junk statusThings need to get much worse before they get better for EMs &ndash; who's next?

The Macro Take: 3...2...1... Lift-Off from the Fed!

<ul><li>The Fed doves can coo all they want, but the trend is 221,000 on NFPs</li><li>This is trend over past three months, with jobless down to 5.1% (best in 7 years)</li><li>With 10 days to go, the Fed will move if the markets can stay above 1,800 </li><li>It needs to keep above that until September 16 (-6% move from Fri&rsquo;s 1,921 close)</li><li>Should be an action-packed week with China back in and central bank meetings</li><li>Meetings happening in New Zealand, Canada, Russia, Malaysia, UK, South Korea</li></ul>

The Fed doves can coo all they want, but the trend is 221,000 on NFPsThis is trend over past three months, with jobless down to 5.1% (best in 7 years)With 10 days to go, the Fed will move if the markets can stay above 1,800 It needs to keep above that until September 16 (-6% move from Fri&rsquo;s 1,921 close)Should be an action-packed week with China back in and central bank meetingsMeetings happening in New Zealand, Canada, Russia, Malaysia, UK, South Korea

The Macro Take: Ten days to Fed lift off but the market must hold

United States

iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF's objective seeks to provide investment results that correspond to the performance of the Taiwanese market, as measured by the MSCI Taiwan 25/50 Index.

iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF (EWT US)

Trump Is a Dead-Weight on the USD

Global investors heading into Japan equities may no longer be routinely hedging the JPY currency exposure. Equity investors, viewing the largely...

Greg Gibbs

The Fed Just Missed Their Hiking Window

The Fed's surprising dovishness led to confusion in the markets overnight The Fed has moved the goalposts (again) on factors that would drive it...

Kay Van-Petersen

The Macro Take: 3...2...1... Lift-Off from the Fed!

With US equities holding up, it is three days to the first hike in close to a decade Even more important will be the language accompanying the...

Kay Van-Petersen

The Macro Take: Ten days to Fed lift off but the market must hold

The Fed doves can coo all they want, but the trend is 221,000 on NFPs This is trend over past three months, with jobless down to 5.1% (best in 7...

Kay Van-Petersen