Founder, Riedel Research

David Riedel

Founder

Independent equity research on GEM Markets

Riedel Research

Riedel provides equity research and analysis to leading financial organizations. By becoming members of a region (Asia, Latin America, Emerging Europe or Global), organizations have access to an integrated set of services including:

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In this month's analysis of the RRG Global Consumer Sentiment Index (GCSI) we focus on:<ol><li class="p1">The recent impact the Brexit has had on the global economy,</li><li class="p1">Why the consensus view (that while the eurozone is proving resilient to the turmoil surrounding the Brexit the UK is already suffering greatly and is set to for further pain) is inconsistent with recent evidence in the GCSI</li><li class="p1">Highlight which markets and sectors globally can be expected to outperform through year end. </li></ol>

In this month's analysis of the RRG Global Consumer Sentiment Index (GCSI) we focus on:The recent impact the Brexit has had on the global economy,Why the consensus view (that while the eurozone is proving resilient to the turmoil surrounding the Brexit the UK is already suffering greatly and is set to for further pain) is inconsistent with recent evidence in the GCSIHighlight which markets and sectors globally can be expected to outperform through year end. 

Why the Consensus Is Wrong on The UK - Strategy Through Year End

CEO, CIO, ClearMacro

Mike Simcock

CEO, CIO

Strategic & Tactical Asset Allocation Global Macro

ClearMacro

CIO, & CEO ClearMacro Ltd
An institutional investor with over 25 years experience, laterly having spent 10 years at GIC Singapore SWF. Managng Director, managing Global Macro, FIxed Income (Europe) and Global Credit businesses.
Passionate about utilising technology to enhance portfolio idea generation across global, multi-asset classes and optimisation of the investment process.

Macroeconomics

Fed watching 2.0Automated, systematic  analysis of central bank policy makers offers significant,  actionable insights as iIlustrated by Bank of Japan and the Bank of England with implications for the Yen and GBP.

Fed watching 2.0Automated, systematic  analysis of central bank policy makers offers significant,  actionable insights as iIlustrated by Bank of Japan and the Bank of England with implications for the Yen and GBP.   

EM PM, Ecstrat

Emad Mostaque

EM PM

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
​
More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

It has been an eventful few days for those involved with Turkey as a coup was foiled and the clean-up has begun in earnest.The situation, as is the norm in the region, appears to be hideously complex with various factions vying for control in Turkey and the instigators of the putsch potentially anyone from the rapidly marginalised secularist establishment to another Islamic group with whom the AKP had been formally allied.This note attempts to untangle some of these complexities in a concise manner and consider what the impact of these events is likely to be on Turkey going forward, both in terms of the politics, which now seems to be headed fully toward an illiberal democracy and in terms of the market, which fell over 7% back to the level of two weeks ago before its post-Brexit rally.

It has been an eventful few days for those involved with Turkey as a coup was foiled and the clean-up has begun in earnest.The situation, as is the norm in the region, appears to be hideously complex with various factions vying for control in Turkey and the instigators of the putsch potentially anyone from the rapidly marginalised secularist establishment to another Islamic group with whom the AKP had been formally allied.This note attempts to untangle some of these complexities in a concise manner and consider what the impact of these events is likely to be on Turkey going forward, both in terms of the politics, which now seems to be headed fully toward an illiberal democracy and in terms of the market, which fell over 7% back to the level of two weeks ago before its post-Brexit rally.

Reports all over press now of an attempted coup in Turkey highlight yet again the underpricing of geopolitical risk across markets, something we had been given a warning about by Brexit mere weeks ago.If successful, this would mark quite the comeback by the embattled CHP, who are falling apart at the seams but are by far closest to the military establishment, even after the purges of Sledgehammer and Ergenekon where it seems the AKP were not too paranoid after all about an impending coup.We…

Reports all over press now of an attempted coup in Turkey highlight yet again the underpricing of geopolitical risk across markets, something we had been given a warning about by Brexit mere weeks ago.If successful, this would mark quite the comeback by the embattled CHP, who are falling apart at the seams but are by far closest to the military establishment, even after the purges of Sledgehammer and Ergenekon where it seems the AKP were not too paranoid after all about an impending coup.We…

Growth remains the main topic of conversation in the financial markets and among economists. But inflation is slowly surely becoming an equally important issue. Since we are seeing some degree of growth there is now also talk about the resurgence of inflation. That scourge remains quite limited as governments are still trying to get a good handle on economic expansion. Inflationary pressures are subdued everywhere.Inflation is not yet an issue, but if things develop according to expectations, it will be an issue by late this year. As inflation rises so will interest rates. Expectations are that we will see rates climb to 3% by the fourth quarter this year. Country Specific Developments:Russia: GDP begins to stabilize in April helped by oil and better global growthTurkey: Tourism drops sharply on tensions with RussiaChina:  Manufacturing sector continues to stagnate in May

Growth remains the main topic of conversation in the financial markets and among economists. But inflation is slowly surely becoming an equally important issue. Since we are seeing some degree of growth there is now also talk about the resurgence of inflation. That scourge remains quite limited as governments are still trying to get a good handle on economic expansion. Inflationary pressures are subdued everywhere.Inflation is not yet an issue, but if things develop according to expectations, it will be an issue by late this year. As inflation rises so will interest rates. Expectations are that we will see rates climb to 3% by the fourth quarter this year. Country Specific Developments:Russia: GDP begins to stabilize in April helped by oil and better global growthTurkey: Tourism drops sharply on tensions with RussiaChina:  Manufacturing sector continues to stagnate in May

EM Macro Insights: As Policy Makers Focus on Growth Inflationary Pressures Build

Turkey

iShares MSCI Turkey ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF seeks investment results that correspond to the performance of the MSCI Turkey Investable Market Index.

iShares MSCI Turkey (TUR US)

Why the Consensus Is Wrong on The UK - Strategy Through Year End

In this month's analysis of the RRG Global Consumer Sentiment Index (GCSI) we focus on: The recent impact the Brexit has had on the global...

David Riedel

Fed Watching 2.0

Fed watching 2.0Automated, systematic analysis of central bank policy makers offers significant, actionable insights as iIlustrated by Bank of...

ClearMacro

After the Attemped Coup

It has been an eventful few days for those involved with Turkey as a coup was foiled and the clean-up has begun in earnest.The situation, as is the...

Emad Mostaque

Turkey Flies the Coup

Reports all over press now of an attempted coup in Turkey highlight yet again the underpricing of geopolitical risk across markets, something we...

Emad Mostaque

EM Macro Insights: As Policy Makers Focus on Growth Inflationary Pressures Build

Growth remains the main topic of conversation in the financial markets and among economists. But inflation is slowly surely becoming an equally...

David Riedel