Global Head of Research, Smartkarma

Mark Artherton

Global Head of Research

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Macroeconomics

<p>Dollarization does not appear to be an 'active' decision by market participants. &nbsp;Unfortunately it is starting to cause issues for the banking sector, leading to rapid growth in off balance sheet derivative positions. &nbsp;Some banks are managing the gap, others seem to be struggling.</p><p>We also consider the factors contributing to the weakness of the Lira, the central bank is culpable.</p>

Dollarization does not appear to be an 'active' decision by market participants. &nbsp;Unfortunately it is starting to cause issues for the banking sector, leading to rapid growth in off balance sheet derivative positions. &nbsp;Some banks are managing the gap, others seem to be struggling.We also consider the factors contributing to the weakness of the Lira, the central bank is culpable.

TURKEY:  The 'accidental' Dollarization and what is 'off' bank's balance sheets

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<p><strong>Chartonics webcast </strong>Tuesday 31 January 2017</p><p><strong>Turkey, Russia, and Brazil</strong></p><p>To view click on this link: <strong><a href="https://www.screencast.com/t/MsiqEEbuwQs9" target="_blank">https://www.screencast.com/t/MsiqEEbuwQs9</a> </strong>7:53 min.</p><div>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/019/955/original/CPG%20FRONT%20COVER.png?1485841361" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="19955"></figure><div class="content-caption">EM webcast</div>
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<strong>Turkey XU100</strong> - Bullish breakout of triangulation has more gas. We have been probing for a short zone near 85k but upside momentum is simply too strong to fight the tape. While consensus hates Turkey it could spike back above 90k near term. Outlined macro congestion outlined in the webcast will define the LT trend.</div><div>
<strong>USD/TRY</strong> - Long USD from 3.37…</div>

Chartonics webcast Tuesday 31 January 2017Turkey, Russia, and BrazilTo view click on this link: https://www.screencast.com/t/MsiqEEbuwQs9 7:53 min.
EM webcast

Turkey XU100 - Bullish breakout of triangulation has more gas. We have been probing for a short zone near 85k but upside momentum is simply too strong to fight the tape. While consensus hates Turkey it could spike back above 90k near term. Outlined macro congestion outlined in the webcast will define the LT trend.
USD/TRY - Long USD from 3.37…

<p>We opted to produce a quick webcast for the TRY and XU100.</p><p><strong>Turkish Lira</strong> has been a good lead indicator for EM FX in a broader sense and been one of our top short bets in 2016 and carried over our more recent 3.37 short Lira position into January 2017. Given continued USD strength we expect Turkish equities to buckle sooner rather than later.</p><p>To view click on this link: <a href="https://www.screencast.com/t/OmMAkK02G" target="_blank">https://www.screencast.com/t/OmMAkK02G</a> 3:55 min.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/018/525/original/CPG%20FRONT%20COVER.png?1483512471" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="18525"></figure><div class="content-caption">TRY and XU100 webcast</div><p><strong>Turkey index XU100</strong> - We placed a fresh short at 78,000 on…</p>

We opted to produce a quick webcast for the TRY and XU100.Turkish Lira has been a good lead indicator for EM FX in a broader sense and been one of our top short bets in 2016 and carried over our more recent 3.37 short Lira position into January 2017. Given continued USD strength we expect Turkish equities to buckle sooner rather than later.To view click on this link: https://www.screencast.com/t/OmMAkK02G 3:55 min.TRY and XU100 webcastTurkey index XU100 - We placed a fresh short at 78,000 on…

Turkey

iShares MSCI Turkey ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF seeks investment results that correspond to the performance of the MSCI Turkey Investable Market Index.

iShares MSCI Turkey (TUR US)

TURKEY: The 'accidental' Dollarization and what is 'off' bank's balance sheets

Dollarization does not appear to be an 'active' decision by market participants. Unfortunately it is starting to cause issues for the banking...

Mark Artherton

Turkey, Russia and Brazil Positioning

Chartonics webcast Tuesday 31 January 2017Turkey, Russia, and BrazilTo view click on this link: https://www.screencast.com/t/MsiqEEbuwQs9 7:53...

Thomas Schroeder

Turkey Technicals

We opted to produce a quick webcast for the TRY and XU100.Turkish Lira has been a good lead indicator for EM FX in a broader sense and been one of...

Thomas Schroeder