Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Technical Analysis

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is above 5700-5785 (up from 5500).</li>
<li>We continue to be buyers in the 5700-5785 range, and we would also be buyers at 5804-5854 gap support. We are expecting all-time highs soon on SPX.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We will maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is above 5700-5785 (up from 5500).
We continue to be buyers in the 5700-5785 range, and we would also be buyers at 5804-5854 gap support. We are expecting all-time highs soon on SPX.


Semiconductors and Technology Leading the Way; IWM Holding Above $209; Still Firmly Bullish

Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors, The Circuit

The Circuit

Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors

A Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors. With Jay Goldberg and Ben Bajarin

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Semiconductor industry expected to grow by 10%</li><li>US semiconductor manufacturing expansion faces challenges</li><li>Trump and China agree to a 90-day pause on new tariffs, with uncertainty about future outcomes</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Semiconductor industry expected to grow by 10%US semiconductor manufacturing expansion faces challengesTrump and China agree to a 90-day pause on new tariffs, with uncertainty about future outcomesThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Episode 118: Weekly Update (Tariffs), AI Budget Spend, Semis and Saudi's

<ul>
<li>Last week we discussed how evidence was pointing to a major low at 5500-5600 on the SPX, but now it appears more likely to just have been a local low</li>
<li>Market dynamics have continued to deteriorate to the point where we no longer see this as a buying opportunity.</li>
<li>We are cautious and would get defensive as long as the S&amp;P 500 is below 5770-5780 and its 200-day MA; we believe we are in a "sell rallies" regime</li>
</ul>


Last week we discussed how evidence was pointing to a major low at 5500-5600 on the SPX, but now it appears more likely to just have been a local low
Market dynamics have continued to deteriorate to the point where we no longer see this as a buying opportunity.
We are cautious and would get defensive as long as the S&amp;P 500 is below 5770-5780 and its 200-day MA; we believe we are in a "sell rallies" regime


Cautious Outlook; Get Defensive and Sell Rallies; Upgrading Energy; Downgrading Technology

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish and we see the market in the midst of a significant end-of-year rally that we have been expecting since mid-October.</li>
<li>We continue to expect support at 20-day MAs on $SPX and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), while support at current levels or the 50-day MA is likely on the Russell 2000 (IWM).</li>
<li>Market dynamics continue to improve, giving us confidence that this bull run is likely to go at least another month into mid-January, and quite likely beyond.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish and we see the market in the midst of a significant end-of-year rally that we have been expecting since mid-October.
We continue to expect support at 20-day MAs on $SPX and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), while support at current levels or the 50-day MA is likely on the Russell 2000 (IWM).
Market dynamics continue to improve, giving us confidence that this bull run is likely to go at least another month into mid-January, and quite likely beyond.


Growth Leading This EOY Rally; Expect More Upside. PHLX Semis $SOXX With a Bullish 5-Month Reversal

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>$SPX remains below 5783, the upper-end of important target/resistance area we've discussed for a month+ (5670-5783). 5670 was prior all-time high set in July, while 5783 is 2% above 5670.</li>
<li>It's hard to call it a "decisive" breakout if SPX isn't even 2% above its prior high.  In 2007, SPX made a top after climbing 1-2% above its prior high.</li>
<li>The 2007 topping analog has tracked the current market almost perfectly, with similar backdrops to today including new Fed cutting cycle, recession indicators going off, yield curve un-inverting, defensives outperforming</li>
</ul>


$SPX remains below 5783, the upper-end of important target/resistance area we've discussed for a month+ (5670-5783). 5670 was prior all-time high set in July, while 5783 is 2% above 5670.
It's hard to call it a "decisive" breakout if SPX isn't even 2% above its prior high.  In 2007, SPX made a top after climbing 1-2% above its prior high.
The 2007 topping analog has tracked the current market almost perfectly, with similar backdrops to today including new Fed cutting cycle, recession indicators going off, yield curve un-inverting, defensives outperforming


Still No Decisive Breakout as SPX Tests 5783 Resistance; Ideal Time to Shift to Defensives

United States

iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF's objective seeks investment results that correspond to the performance of the PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index.

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iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX US)

Semiconductors and Technology Leading the Way; IWM Holding Above $209; Still Firmly Bullish

Semiconductors and Technology Leading the Way; IWM Holding Above $209; Still Firmly Bullish and Risk-On. $SMH $SOXX $TSM $NVDA $ARM $MU $KLAC $LRCX...

Vermilion Research

Episode 118: Weekly Update (Tariffs), AI Budget Spend, Semis and Saudi's

The semiconductor industry is anticipated to grow by 10%, but US manufacturing expansion faces challenges and restrictions on Chinese chip makers,...

The Circuit

Cautious Outlook; Get Defensive and Sell Rallies; Upgrading Energy; Downgrading Technology

Cautious Outlook; Get Defensive and Sell Rallies; Upgrading Energy $XLE to Market Weight; Downgrading Technology $XLK to Underweight; Cautious if...

Vermilion Research

Growth Leading This EOY Rally; Expect More Upside. PHLX Semis $SOXX With a Bullish 5-Month Reversal

Growth Leading This EOY Rally $MSFT $AAPL as Tech $XLK Breaks Out; Expect More Upside $ARKK $ARKW $ARKF $BITQ $WGMI. PHLX Semiconductor $SOXX With...

Vermilion Research

Still No Decisive Breakout as SPX Tests 5783 Resistance; Ideal Time to Shift to Defensives

Still No Decisive Breakout as $SPX Tests 5783 Resistance; On watch for SPX bull trap/failed breakout, confirmed only on a break below 5670. 2007...

Vermilion Research

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