Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our key "lines in the sand" were tested last week, including 4257 on the S&amp;P 500, $334 on QQQ, 33,250 on the DJIA, and $102.50 on the S&amp;P 600 (IJR).</li>
<li>After a brief dip below these levels, buyers immediately stepped up and reclaimed these supports. It was a clear win for the bulls (for now).</li>
<li>Attractive and actionable Groups highlighted include fertilizer (ag chemicals), aerospace/defense, and shipping.</li>
</ul>


Our key "lines in the sand" were tested last week, including 4257 on the S&amp;P 500, $334 on QQQ, 33,250 on the DJIA, and $102.50 on the S&amp;P 600 (IJR).
After a brief dip below these levels, buyers immediately stepped up and reclaimed these supports. It was a clear win for the bulls (for now).
Attractive and actionable Groups highlighted include fertilizer (ag chemicals), aerospace/defense, and shipping.


Volatility & Consolidation Continues; Buying Ag Chemicals, Aerospace/Defense, and Shipping Stocks

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

Risk-on signals remain the dominant theme. As a result, we continue to believe we are close to exiting the "mixed market environment" in favor of a new, broad-based advance.  One of those risk-on signals is that the S&amp;P 400 Mid-Caps (IJH) are breaking out to new highs, and we expect small-caps (IWM) to follow.Charts highlighted: IJH, IWM, XOP, XLF, RCD, XLI, XLP, XLU, PPH, IYZ, COP, EOG, PXD, OXY, DVN, CLR, BK, SBNY, STL, UBSI, FNB, WTFC, UMBF, ASB, MOS, CF, ICL, UAN, and IPI

Risk-on signals remain the dominant theme. As a result, we continue to believe we are close to exiting the "mixed market environment" in favor of a new, broad-based advance.  One of those risk-on signals is that the S&amp;P 400 Mid-Caps (IJH) are breaking out to new highs, and we expect small-caps (IWM) to follow.Charts highlighted: IJH, IWM, XOP, XLF, RCD, XLI, XLP, XLU, PPH, IYZ, COP, EOG, PXD, OXY, DVN, CLR, BK, SBNY, STL, UBSI, FNB, WTFC, UMBF, ASB, MOS, CF, ICL, UAN, and IPI

US Equity Strategy: Mid-Caps Breaking Out, Are Small-Caps Next? Buying Energy, Financials, Materials

Market dynamics remain positive and there continues to be an absence of breakdowns across the broad indexes and Sectors. As a result we remain bullish and we view any weakness as a buying opportunity. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Materials and Technology.

Market dynamics remain positive and there continues to be an absence of breakdowns across the broad indexes and Sectors. As a result we remain bullish and we view any weakness as a buying opportunity. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Materials and Technology.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact; Growth Vs. Value Stalemate Continues

With major indexes testing support last week, we highlighted that while we expect to see indexes firm up based on YTD trends, the potential for breakdowns was not far off. In today’s report we assess the damage and highlight key support levels.  We also highlight attractive Groups  and stocks within the Materials, Utilities, and Consumer Staples Sectors.

With major indexes testing support last week, we highlighted that while we expect to see indexes firm up based on YTD trends, the potential for breakdowns was not far off. In today’s report we assess the damage and highlight key support levels.  We also highlight attractive Groups  and stocks within the Materials, Utilities, and Consumer Staples Sectors.

Key Support Levels Being Tested for U.S. Indexes

<ul>
<li>
We are downgrading Consumer Discretionary to market weight as retail breakdowns and continued weakness in homebuilders and major autos has led to price and RS uptrend violations for the Sector. Reduce exposure.</li>
<li>
Many major indexes testing support. We cover the S&amp;P 500, Dow, small-caps, PHLX Semiconductor, international developed and emerging markets, which are all at logical support areas. While we expect to see these indexes firm up at current levels based on YTD trends, the potential for breakdowns is not far off.</li>
<li>
Big picture trends. The cyclicals  vs. staples ratio remains elevated and has not broken down. Something similar can be said of the growth vs. value ratio, where the uptrend remains intact.</li>
<li>
In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Energy, Consumer Staples, Materials, and Utilities.</li>
</ul>



We are downgrading Consumer Discretionary to market weight as retail breakdowns and continued weakness in homebuilders and major autos has led to price and RS uptrend violations for the Sector. Reduce exposure.

Many major indexes testing support. We cover the S&amp;P 500, Dow, small-caps, PHLX Semiconductor, international developed and emerging markets, which are all at logical support areas. While we expect to see these indexes firm up at current levels based on YTD trends, the potential for breakdowns is not far off.

Big picture trends. The cyclicals  vs. staples ratio remains elevated and has not broken down. Something similar can be said of the growth vs. value ratio, where the uptrend remains intact.

In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Energy, Consumer Staples, Materials, and Utilities.


Yield Surge Tests Equities; Downgrading Discretionary

Israel

Israel Chemicals Limited, through its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and markets chemical and fertilizer products in Israel.  The Company markets its products in Israel, Europe, and the Americas.  Products include bromine specialty chemicals, potash, phosphate fertilizers, and specialty performance and industrial products.

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Israel Chemicals (ICL IT)

Volatility & Consolidation Continues; Buying Ag Chemicals, Aerospace/Defense, and Shipping Stocks

Moving forward we continue to expect more volatility and consolidation between 4257 and 4590-4595 on the S&P 500, and between $334 and $367 on the...

Vermilion Research

US Equity Strategy: Mid-Caps Breaking Out, Are Small-Caps Next? Buying Energy, Financials, Materials

Risk-on signals remain the dominant theme. One of those risk-on signals is that the S&P 400 Mid-Caps (IJH) are breaking out to new highs, and we...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact; Growth Vs. Value Stalemate Continues

Market dynamics remain positive and there continues to be an absence of breakdowns across the broad indexes and Sectors. As a result we remain...

Vermilion Research

Key Support Levels Being Tested for U.S. Indexes

With major indexes testing support last week, we highlighted that while we expect to see indexes firm up based on YTD trends, the potential for...

Vermilion Research

Yield Surge Tests Equities; Downgrading Discretionary

We are downgrading Consumer Discretionary to market weight as retail breakdowns and continued weakness in homebuilders and major autos has led to...

Vermilion Research

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