Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The first piece had a question mark in the title. This one has an exclamation point. The exclamation point has value for one investor. Other people? Not so much.</li>
<li>Today post-close we got the deal. I was a little surprised it came this fast, but it's now mostly done it appears - largely as predicted in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tsuruha-3391-and-welcia-3141-aeon-tsuruha-stake-buy-followed-by-merger" target="_blank" rel="noopener">last piece</a>.</li>
<li>There are things one can probably read into the details. It is probably worth thinking about those, and how those details affect the industry. </li>
</ul>


The first piece had a question mark in the title. This one has an exclamation point. The exclamation point has value for one investor. Other people? Not so much.
Today post-close we got the deal. I was a little surprised it came this fast, but it's now mostly done it appears - largely as predicted in the last piece.
There are things one can probably read into the details. It is probably worth thinking about those, and how those details affect the industry. 


Tsuruha (3391) And Welcia (3141) - Aeon Tsuruha Stake Buy Followed by Merger! [Redux]

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>The Japanese Financial Services Agency has asked the general insurers to reduce/eliminate their cross-shareholdings.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokio-marine-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7591:1" rel="noopener">Tokio Marine Holdings (8766 JP)</a> had a stake over US$100m in at least 33 listed Japanese stocks, amounting to a total of US$16.5bn.</li>
<li>In this note, we take a look at its stakes in various companies to see which ones could possibly be candidates for further selldowns.</li>
</ul>


The Japanese Financial Services Agency has asked the general insurers to reduce/eliminate their cross-shareholdings.

Tokio Marine Holdings (8766 JP) had a stake over US$100m in at least 33 listed Japanese stocks, amounting to a total of US$16.5bn.
In this note, we take a look at its stakes in various companies to see which ones could possibly be candidates for further selldowns.


Tokio Marine Cross-Shareholding - At Least US$18bn of Cross-Shareholding to Sell

<ul>
<li>The Japanese Financial Services Agency has asked the general insurers to reduce/eliminate their cross-shareholdings.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ms-ad-insurance-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:631:1" rel="noopener">MS&amp;AD Insurance (8725 JP)</a> had a stake over US$100m in at least 29 listed Japanese stocks, amounting to a total of US$17.4bn.</li>
<li>In this note, we take a look at its stakes in various companies to see which ones could possibly be candidates for further selldowns.</li>
</ul>


The Japanese Financial Services Agency has asked the general insurers to reduce/eliminate their cross-shareholdings.

MS&amp;AD Insurance (8725 JP) had a stake over US$100m in at least 29 listed Japanese stocks, amounting to a total of US$17.4bn.
In this note, we take a look at its stakes in various companies to see which ones could possibly be candidates for further selldowns.


MS&AD Cross-Shareholding - At Least US$20bn of Cross-Shareholding to Sell

Research Coverage of Japanese Listed Companies, Shared Research Inc

Shared Research

Research Coverage of Japanese Listed Companies

Shared Research Inc

Pioneering research coverage of Japanese listed companies. Now customizable and interactive for global institutional investors. Corporate access reimagined.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-shokuhin-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19778:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Shokuhin (7451 JP)</a> is Japan’s largest general food wholesaler by revenue.</li>
<li>In FY03/23, the company reported revenue of JPY1,996.8bn, operating profit of JPY23.4bn, recurring profit of JPY25.2bn, and net income attributable to owners of the parent of JPY17.1bn.</li>
<li>In May 2021, the company announced its “Medium-term Management Plan 2023,” covering the period between FY03/22 and FY03/24.</li>
</ul>



Mitsubishi Shokuhin (7451 JP) is Japan’s largest general food wholesaler by revenue.
In FY03/23, the company reported revenue of JPY1,996.8bn, operating profit of JPY23.4bn, recurring profit of JPY25.2bn, and net income attributable to owners of the parent of JPY17.1bn.
In May 2021, the company announced its “Medium-term Management Plan 2023,” covering the period between FY03/22 and FY03/24.


Mitsubishi Shokuhin (7451): Q3 FY03/24 Update

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

<ul>
<li>Aeon will almost definitely increase its stake in Tsuruha Holdings, which on its own will catalyse drugstore competitors to consider their mergeable options.</li>
<li>Tsuruha MAY merge with Welcia under Aeon and just talk of this will catalyse drugstore competitors even more.</li>
<li>But the ongoing fusion of drugstore retailing and FMCG formats like supermarkets and convenience stores, will also spur the entire FMCG sector to respond to Aeon's massive potential dominance.</li>
</ul>


Aeon will almost definitely increase its stake in Tsuruha Holdings, which on its own will catalyse drugstore competitors to consider their mergeable options.
Tsuruha MAY merge with Welcia under Aeon and just talk of this will catalyse drugstore competitors even more.
But the ongoing fusion of drugstore retailing and FMCG formats like supermarkets and convenience stores, will also spur the entire FMCG sector to respond to Aeon's massive potential dominance.


Aeon (Maybe) Gets Tsuruha, Could Trigger Wave of Mergers in the Sector (And Beyond)

Japan

ITOCHU Corporation is a general trading firm handling textiles, wood, machinery, metals, food, chemicals, construction materials, commodities, and energy related products such as oil and gas. The Company operates around the world. Itochu diversifies by operating in satellite communication and data communication businesses.

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Itochu Corp (8001 JP)

Tsuruha (3391) And Welcia (3141) - Aeon Tsuruha Stake Buy Followed by Merger! [Redux]

The idea of holding the potential targets (Sundrug, Sugi, Cosmo, Kusuri no Aoki, Create SD, Ain, Nihon Chozai) against a short (or implied short)...

Travis Lundy

Tokio Marine Cross-Shareholding - At Least US$18bn of Cross-Shareholding to Sell

Tokio Marine Holdings (8766 JP) had a stake over US$100m in at least 33 listed Japanese stocks, amounting to a total of US$16.5bn.

Sumeet Singh

MS&AD Cross-Shareholding - At Least US$20bn of Cross-Shareholding to Sell

The FSA has asked general insurers to trim their cross-shareholding. MS&AD (8725 JP) had a stake over US$100m in at least 29 listed Japanese...

Sumeet Singh

Mitsubishi Shokuhin (7451): Q3 FY03/24 Update

Japan's largest food wholesaler Mitsubishi Shokuhin reports strong financials and unveils new "Medium-term Management Plan 2023."

Shared Research

Aeon (Maybe) Gets Tsuruha, Could Trigger Wave of Mergers in the Sector (And Beyond)

Aeon's potential increased stake in Tsuruha Holdings and possible merger with Welcia will likely prompt drugstore competitors to consider their...

Michael Causton

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Tsuruha (3391) And Welcia (3141) - Aeon Tsuruha Stake Buy Followed by Merger! [Redux]

The idea of holding the potential targets (Sundrug, Sugi, Cosmo, Kusuri no Aoki, Create SD, Ain, Nihon Chozai) against a short (or implied short)...

Travis Lundy

Tokio Marine Cross-Shareholding - At Least US$18bn of Cross-Shareholding to Sell

Tokio Marine Holdings (8766 JP) had a stake over US$100m in at least 33 listed Japanese stocks, amounting to a total of US$16.5bn.

Sumeet Singh

MS&AD Cross-Shareholding - At Least US$20bn of Cross-Shareholding to Sell

The FSA has asked general insurers to trim their cross-shareholding. MS&AD (8725 JP) had a stake over US$100m in at least 29 listed Japanese...

Sumeet Singh

Mitsubishi Shokuhin (7451): Q3 FY03/24 Update

​Japan's largest food wholesaler Mitsubishi Shokuhin reports strong financials and unveils new "Medium-term Management Plan 2023."

Shared Research

Aeon (Maybe) Gets Tsuruha, Could Trigger Wave of Mergers in the Sector (And Beyond)

​Aeon's potential increased stake in Tsuruha Holdings and possible merger with Welcia will likely prompt drugstore competitors to consider their...

Michael Causton

Japan's largest food wholesaler Mitsubishi Shokuhin reports strong financials and unveils new "Medium-term Management Plan 2023."

Aeon's potential increased stake in Tsuruha Holdings and possible merger with Welcia will likely prompt drugstore competitors to consider their...