Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Today, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sun-frontier-fudousan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18205:1" rel="noopener">Sun Frontier Fudousan (8934 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18448:1" rel="noopener">Itochu Corp (8001 JP)</a> signed a capital alliance. As part of that, Itochu is buying up to 6.657mm shares in a partial tender.</li>
<li>It is also buying 5.5mm shares at a discount in a 3rd party placement. Advantage Partners will convert and tender some of its CB. Itochu will own 15-20+% post-deal.</li>
<li>This is Itochu getting into a new position. It's a new career being made. It is possibly a precursor to buying out the founder in a couple of years.</li>
</ul>


Today, Sun Frontier Fudousan (8934 JP) and Itochu Corp (8001 JP) signed a capital alliance. As part of that, Itochu is buying up to 6.657mm shares in a partial tender.
It is also buying 5.5mm shares at a discount in a 3rd party placement. Advantage Partners will convert and tender some of its CB. Itochu will own 15-20+% post-deal.
This is Itochu getting into a new position. It's a new career being made. It is possibly a precursor to buying out the founder in a couple of years.


[Japan Event] Itochu Partial Tender for 13+% of Sun Frontier Fudosan (8934). Tiny Premium. No Min.

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

<ul>
<li>ACT's bid for Seven &amp; I has been withdrawn and Seven will be better off long-term because of it – although we detail here how competitors are catching up fast.</li>
<li>Once York HD has been split off, the company can at last focus on its crucial local CVS operation: Japan makes up 25% of revenues but almost 50% of profits.</li>
<li>The potential is real and we are bullish on the long-term value but we would have been more bullish if the former CEO Ryuichi Isaka was still on board.</li>
</ul>


ACT's bid for Seven &amp; I has been withdrawn and Seven will be better off long-term because of it – although we detail here how competitors are catching up fast.
Once York HD has been split off, the company can at last focus on its crucial local CVS operation: Japan makes up 25% of revenues but almost 50% of profits.
The potential is real and we are bullish on the long-term value but we would have been more bullish if the former CEO Ryuichi Isaka was still on board.


The Final ACT Comedy of Errors Opens the Way for Real Value to Emerge at Seven & I

<ul>
<li>Yesterday a news article from Bloomberg suggested 7&amp;i was "considering" an MBO. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a> later confirmed they had received a non-binding proposal from ITO Junro/family.</li>
<li>The initial number was ¥9trln. If market cap? High. If EV, too low. That would have implied a price just over the first "grossly inadequate" ACT price.</li>
<li>There is a lot we don't know. This changes the landscape. It probably shifts the range trade, but it will shift more when we get more clarity on ITO-san's price.</li>
</ul>


Yesterday a news article from Bloomberg suggested 7&amp;i was "considering" an MBO. Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP) later confirmed they had received a non-binding proposal from ITO Junro/family.
The initial number was ¥9trln. If market cap? High. If EV, too low. That would have implied a price just over the first "grossly inadequate" ACT price.
There is a lot we don't know. This changes the landscape. It probably shifts the range trade, but it will shift more when we get more clarity on ITO-san's price.


7&I (3382 JP) - An ITO Family MBO? With Itochu? At ¥9trln? Maybe. Information Is Scarce

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Just as they did before, Japanese convenience stores are taking a US idea and making it Japanese, in this case retail media, which looks set to be huge in Japan.</li>
<li>Seven &amp; I believes it will be a ¥3 trillion business and Familymart, which is leading in this new profit machine, expects ¥5 billion in media income in 3 years.</li>
<li>The options for highly personalised targeting and behavioural analysis will transform brand advertising and marketing – but even more the bottom line of convenience stores.</li>
</ul>


Just as they did before, Japanese convenience stores are taking a US idea and making it Japanese, in this case retail media, which looks set to be huge in Japan.
Seven &amp; I believes it will be a ¥3 trillion business and Familymart, which is leading in this new profit machine, expects ¥5 billion in media income in 3 years.
The options for highly personalised targeting and behavioural analysis will transform brand advertising and marketing – but even more the bottom line of convenience stores.


How Seven Eleven and Other Conbinis Are Sitting on a Retail Media Goldmine

<ul>
<li>Itochu’s Textile division continues to execute the directive from its CEO to expand reach and coverage in the fashion and lifestyle sectors, with sports one of the major target categories.</li>
<li>It will completely absorb Descente as part of this plan, meaning the brand is likely to become one of the largest in the portfolio.</li>
<li>The ongoing tender offer will likely succeed giving Itochu a bargain and investors no stake in the future.</li>
</ul>


Itochu’s Textile division continues to execute the directive from its CEO to expand reach and coverage in the fashion and lifestyle sectors, with sports one of the major target categories.
It will completely absorb Descente as part of this plan, meaning the brand is likely to become one of the largest in the portfolio.
The ongoing tender offer will likely succeed giving Itochu a bargain and investors no stake in the future.


Itochu's Big Plans for Descente – Shame Investors Won't Get a Look In

Japan

ITOCHU Corporation is a general trading firm handling textiles, wood, machinery, metals, food, chemicals, construction materials, commodities, and energy related products such as oil and gas. The Company operates around the world. Itochu diversifies by operating in satellite communication and data communication businesses.

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Itochu Corp (8001 JP)

[Japan Event] Itochu Partial Tender for 13+% of Sun Frontier Fudosan (8934). Tiny Premium. No Min.

Itochu is buying into a new business. Real estate revitalisation and hotels. 3rd party placement for just under 10%. Partial tender for 13% but...

Travis Lundy

The Final ACT Comedy of Errors Opens the Way for Real Value to Emerge at Seven & I

ACT's bid for Seven & I withdrawn, company to focus on crucial CVS operation in Japan for long-term growth, potential vast but more bullish if...

Michael Causton

7&I (3382 JP) - An ITO Family MBO? With Itochu? At ¥9trln? Maybe. Information Is Scarce

An MBO for Seven & i by the ITO family? Maybe. And the number was big (¥3450/sh), unless it was small (¥2,300/sh), and we don't know which. But it...

Travis Lundy

How Seven Eleven and Other Conbinis Are Sitting on a Retail Media Goldmine

Japanese CVS are adapting retail media and expect this to be a ¥3 trillion business with highly personalised targeting and behavioural analysis...

Michael Causton

Itochu's Big Plans for Descente – Shame Investors Won't Get a Look In

Itochu is moving further into fashion and lifestyle sectors with sports as a major focus. Absorbing Descente is key to this and a successful...

Michael Causton

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Japan Event] Itochu Partial Tender for 13+% of Sun Frontier Fudosan (8934). Tiny Premium. No Min.

Itochu is buying into a new business. Real estate revitalisation and hotels. 3rd party placement for just under 10%. Partial tender for 13% but...

Travis Lundy

The Final ACT Comedy of Errors Opens the Way for Real Value to Emerge at Seven & I

​ACT's bid for Seven & I withdrawn, company to focus on crucial CVS operation in Japan for long-term growth, potential vast but more bullish if...

Michael Causton

7&I (3382 JP) - An ITO Family MBO? With Itochu? At ¥9trln? Maybe. Information Is Scarce

An MBO for Seven & i by the ITO family? Maybe. And the number was big (¥3450/sh), unless it was small (¥2,300/sh), and we don't know which. But it...

Travis Lundy

How Seven Eleven and Other Conbinis Are Sitting on a Retail Media Goldmine

​Japanese CVS are adapting retail media and expect this to be a ¥3 trillion business with highly personalised targeting and behavioural analysis...

Michael Causton

Itochu's Big Plans for Descente – Shame Investors Won't Get a Look In

​Itochu is moving further into fashion and lifestyle sectors with sports as a major focus. Absorbing Descente is key to this and a successful...

Michael Causton

ACT's bid for Seven & I withdrawn, company to focus on crucial CVS operation in Japan for long-term growth, potential vast but more bullish if...

Japanese CVS are adapting retail media and expect this to be a ¥3 trillion business with highly personalised targeting and behavioural analysis...

Itochu is moving further into fashion and lifestyle sectors with sports as a major focus. Absorbing Descente is key to this and a successful...