Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>ACT's bid for Seven &amp; I has been withdrawn and Seven will be better off long-term because of it – although we detail here how competitors are catching up fast.</li>
<li>Once York HD has been split off, the company can at last focus on its crucial local CVS operation: Japan makes up 25% of revenues but almost 50% of profits.</li>
<li>The potential is real and we are bullish on the long-term value but we would have been more bullish if the former CEO Ryuichi Isaka was still on board.</li>
</ul>


ACT's bid for Seven &amp; I has been withdrawn and Seven will be better off long-term because of it – although we detail here how competitors are catching up fast.
Once York HD has been split off, the company can at last focus on its crucial local CVS operation: Japan makes up 25% of revenues but almost 50% of profits.
The potential is real and we are bullish on the long-term value but we would have been more bullish if the former CEO Ryuichi Isaka was still on board.


The Final ACT Comedy of Errors Opens the Way for Real Value to Emerge at Seven & I

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-shokuhin-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14985:1" rel="noopener">Itochu Shokuhin (2692 JP)</a> has recommended an offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18448:1" rel="noopener">Itochu Corp (8001 JP)</a> at JPY13,000, a 3.6% premium to last close and a 39.8% premium to the undisturbed price (13 November).</li>
<li>While the offer represents an all-time high, it is light compared to precedent transactions, Sapphireterra’s fair value and below the midpoint of the special committee IFA DCF valuation range.</li>
<li>However, tendering by crossholders and a few retail holders will satisfy the minimum (14.20% ownership ratio). Therefore, this is a done deal.</li>
</ul>



Itochu Shokuhin (2692 JP) has recommended an offer from Itochu Corp (8001 JP) at JPY13,000, a 3.6% premium to last close and a 39.8% premium to the undisturbed price (13 November).
While the offer represents an all-time high, it is light compared to precedent transactions, Sapphireterra’s fair value and below the midpoint of the special committee IFA DCF valuation range.
However, tendering by crossholders and a few retail holders will satisfy the minimum (14.20% ownership ratio). Therefore, this is a done deal.


Itochu-Shokuhin (2692 JP): Itochu (8001 JP)’s Tender Offer Is Light but Done

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Today during market hours, the Nikkei released a headline saying <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18448:1" rel="noopener">Itochu Corp (8001 JP)</a> would buy out 52.5% sub <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-shokuhin-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14985:1" rel="noopener">Itochu Shokuhin (2692 JP)</a> at a tiny premium.</li>
<li>Post-Close, it was confirmed. Tiny premium. Low multiple. Kind of insulting assumptions. But that is par for the course for an Itochu takeover of a subsidiary.</li>
<li>This gets done because Itochu + crossholders own 70%. Tough to see an activist effort because one can't join in the back end. </li>
</ul>


Today during market hours, the Nikkei released a headline saying Itochu Corp (8001 JP) would buy out 52.5% sub Itochu Shokuhin (2692 JP) at a tiny premium.
Post-Close, it was confirmed. Tiny premium. Low multiple. Kind of insulting assumptions. But that is par for the course for an Itochu takeover of a subsidiary.
This gets done because Itochu + crossholders own 70%. Tough to see an activist effort because one can't join in the back end. 


[Japan M&A] Itochu Buys Out Itochu Shokuhin (2692) Cheaply as Crossholders Get It Over The Line

<ul>
<li>On 14 November, media outlets reported that Sapphireterra has <a href="https://img1.wsimg.com/blobby/go/e7ddad68-3d70-4201-b3f3-16f665298127/downloads/055ae6dd-96a9-457f-baab-01eafcc12759/STC%20IS%20Press%20Release%202025-11-05%20E%20FINAL.pdf?ver=1763150335833" target="_blank" rel="noopener">sent a letter</a> to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-shokuhin-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14985:1" rel="noopener">Itochu Shokuhin (2692 JP)</a> Board suggesting two strategic alternatives to improve shareholder returns. </li>
<li>Sapphireterra has suggested that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18448:1" rel="noopener">Itochu Corp (8001 JP)</a> privatise Itochu-Shokuhin at JPY14,000, a 50.5% takeover premium. Due to the shareholder structure, Itochu does not need to be this generous.</li>
<li>Sapphireterra has also alternatively suggested JPY7,000 special dividend. The strong YTD share performance suggests no pressing need for the Board to act on this proposal. </li>
</ul>


On 14 November, media outlets reported that Sapphireterra has sent a letter to the Itochu Shokuhin (2692 JP) Board suggesting two strategic alternatives to improve shareholder returns. 
Sapphireterra has suggested that Itochu Corp (8001 JP) privatise Itochu-Shokuhin at JPY14,000, a 50.5% takeover premium. Due to the shareholder structure, Itochu does not need to be this generous.
Sapphireterra has also alternatively suggested JPY7,000 special dividend. The strong YTD share performance suggests no pressing need for the Board to act on this proposal. 


Itochu-Shokuhin (2692 JP): Itochu Likely to Shrug off Sapphireterra’s Privatisation Call

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Core inflation rates remain stubbornly high and real wages are still falling. </li>
<li>Surveys suggest one more major round of price hikes in October but the government still thinks prices will stabilise below its 2% target by the end of the year.</li>
<li>The increases are lowering consumer confidence – bad news for most retailers, although major discount chains are making hay while the sun, well, doesn’t shine.</li>
</ul>


Core inflation rates remain stubbornly high and real wages are still falling. 
Surveys suggest one more major round of price hikes in October but the government still thinks prices will stabilise below its 2% target by the end of the year.
The increases are lowering consumer confidence – bad news for most retailers, although major discount chains are making hay while the sun, well, doesn’t shine.


Japanese Prices Rise Again; 60% of Consumers Feeling the Pinch and Looking for Better Value

Japan

ITOCHU-SHOKUHIN Co., Ltd. is a wholesaler of alcoholic beverages, general foods, and frozen foods.  The Company's products include beer, sake, distilled spirits, seasonings, canned goods, noodles, dried foodstuffs, confectionery, and processed foods.  Itochu-Shokuhin also plans, develops, and sells gift products.

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Itochu Shokuhin (2692 JP)

The Final ACT Comedy of Errors Opens the Way for Real Value to Emerge at Seven & I

ACT's bid for Seven & I withdrawn, company to focus on crucial CVS operation in Japan for long-term growth, potential vast but more bullish if...

Michael Causton