Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Copper retreated by more than 5% due to China's weak print on TSF. The plenum's lack of concrete stimulus measures also did not help matters. </li>
<li>Check out our initiation, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/copper-primer-what-we-like-about-copper-and-what-to-play" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:141017" rel="noopener">Copper Primer: What We Like About Copper And What to Play</a>, where we provide our long-term bullish outlook on copper. </li>
<li>Also, see our initiation, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/southern-copper-in-a-league-of-its-own" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:139839" rel="noopener">Southern Copper: In a League of Its Own</a>. The company reported a stellar Q2 FY24, beating the street estimates by 20%.</li>
</ul>


Copper retreated by more than 5% due to China's weak print on TSF. The plenum's lack of concrete stimulus measures also did not help matters. 
Check out our initiation, Copper Primer: What We Like About Copper And What to Play, where we provide our long-term bullish outlook on copper. 
Also, see our initiation, Southern Copper: In a League of Its Own. The company reported a stellar Q2 FY24, beating the street estimates by 20%.


Copper Tracker July 22nd, 2024: Physical/​Equity Screens And Trades, Copper Weak

<ul>
<li>Copper rebounded last week, rising 4% on the LME and 6% on the COMEX, led by improved sentiment but in line with most of its commodity complex peers.</li>
<li>Check out our initiation, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/copper-primer-what-we-like-about-copper-and-what-to-play" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:141017" rel="noopener">Copper Primer: What We Like About Copper and What to Play</a>, and our equity initiation, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/southern-copper-in-a-league-of-its-own" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:139839" rel="noopener">Southern Copper: In a League of Its Own</a>. </li>
<li>We provide updates on the long copper-short gold trade we explored last week and the iron condor in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/freeport-mcmoran-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12491:1" rel="noopener">Freeport Mcmoran (FCX US)</a> </li>
</ul>


Copper rebounded last week, rising 4% on the LME and 6% on the COMEX, led by improved sentiment but in line with most of its commodity complex peers.
Check out our initiation, Copper Primer: What We Like About Copper and What to Play, and our equity initiation, Southern Copper: In a League of Its Own. 
We provide updates on the long copper-short gold trade we explored last week and the iron condor in Freeport Mcmoran (FCX US) 


Copper Tracker July 2024: Physical/​Equity Screens And Trades

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16279:1" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a> in the equity space is the best way to play bullish copper long-term with its long-term (10-year) ROCE of &gt;22% </li>
<li>With low-cost production assets in Peru and Mexico, the company has managed EBITDA margins of&gt; 39% across the cycle (last 15 years) and averaging 50%.</li>
<li>A 100% payout results in a dividend yield of 3.5%. We believe there is a price for everything, and in the event of a 20% correction, it would be attractive.</li>
</ul>



Southern Copper (SCCO US) in the equity space is the best way to play bullish copper long-term with its long-term (10-year) ROCE of &gt;22% 
With low-cost production assets in Peru and Mexico, the company has managed EBITDA margins of&gt; 39% across the cycle (last 15 years) and averaging 50%.
A 100% payout results in a dividend yield of 3.5%. We believe there is a price for everything, and in the event of a 20% correction, it would be attractive.


<ul>
<li>Top miners like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/teck-resources-ltd-36dbdad5-1430-4d7a-8578-31bc50086f72" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33343:1" rel="noopener">Teck Resources (TECK US)</a> are signaling their long-term bullish copper intent through their recent corporate actions. </li>
<li>Copper may experience short periods of oversupply, but its long-term outlook makes it one of the best commodities we cover in terms of return potential. </li>
<li>Our best plays in the copper space are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16279:1" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/teck-resources-ltd-36dbdad5-1430-4d7a-8578-31bc50086f72" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33343:1" rel="noopener">Teck Resources (TECK US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/freeport-mcmoran-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12491:1" rel="noopener">Freeport Mcmoran (FCX US)</a>
</li>
</ul>


Top miners like BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU) and Teck Resources (TECK US) are signaling their long-term bullish copper intent through their recent corporate actions. 
Copper may experience short periods of oversupply, but its long-term outlook makes it one of the best commodities we cover in terms of return potential. 
Our best plays in the copper space are Southern Copper (SCCO US), Teck Resources (TECK US) and Freeport Mcmoran (FCX US)



Copper Primer: What We Like About Copper And What to Play

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16279:1" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a> reported stellar earnings and execution in Q3 2025, with revenues/operating income up 15% and 21% YoY, respectively, beating street estimates by ~4-5%.</li>
<li>The company included slides in its presentation deck highlighting that the copper deficit could rise to 3 million tons by 2030e and 12.1 million tons by 2040e. </li>
<li>This would be led by a transition to EVs (electric vehicles), greater use of renewable energy with higher capex intensity, and other nascent areas of demand, such as AI infrastructure.</li>
</ul>



Southern Copper (SCCO US) reported stellar earnings and execution in Q3 2025, with revenues/operating income up 15% and 21% YoY, respectively, beating street estimates by ~4-5%.
The company included slides in its presentation deck highlighting that the copper deficit could rise to 3 million tons by 2030e and 12.1 million tons by 2040e. 
This would be led by a transition to EVs (electric vehicles), greater use of renewable energy with higher capex intensity, and other nascent areas of demand, such as AI infrastructure.


Southern Copper (SCCO US): Summary of The Copper To 12,000 USD/Ton and Beyond Thesis In Two Slides

Canada

Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. is a Canadian mining company focused on advancing its principal mine development projects in southern Africa: the Platreef platinum-gold-nickel-copper project in South Africa, and the Kamoa-Kakula copper project and the Kipushi zinc-copper-silver-germanium mine in the DRC.

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Ivanhoe Mines (IVN CN)

Copper Tracker July 22nd, 2024: Physical/Equity Screens And Trades, Copper Weak

This brief insight summarizes Copper's performance and equities on our screens. We highlight our research and trades to explore.

Sameer Taneja

Copper Tracker July 2024: Physical/Equity Screens And Trades

This brief insight summarizes Copper's performance and equities on our screens. We highlight our research and trades to explore for July

Sameer Taneja

Southern Copper: In a League of Its Own

We initiate on Southern Copper (SCCO US), a high-quality copper play with assets in Peru and Mexico. Its long term ROCE >22% makes its a very...

Sameer Taneja

Copper Primer: What We Like About Copper And What to Play

We initiate with a primer on the copper sector. We elaborate on our fundamental rationale for being bullish on the metal and discuss different ways...

Sameer Taneja

Southern Copper (SCCO US): Summary of The Copper To 12,000 USD/Ton and Beyond Thesis In Two Slides

Southern Coppers Q3 FY25 presentation summarizes the bullish copper-to-12,000 USD/ton thesis and beyond very well. They see the copper deficit at...

Sameer Taneja

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Copper Tracker July 22nd, 2024: Physical/​Equity Screens And Trades, Copper Weak

This brief insight summarizes Copper's performance and equities on our screens. We highlight our research and trades to explore.

Sameer Taneja

Copper Tracker July 2024: Physical/​Equity Screens And Trades

This brief insight summarizes Copper's performance and equities on our screens. We highlight our research and trades to explore for July

Sameer Taneja

Southern Copper: In a League of Its Own

We initiate on Southern Copper (SCCO US), a high-quality copper play with assets in Peru and Mexico. Its long term ROCE >22% makes its a very...

Sameer Taneja

Copper Primer: What We Like About Copper And What to Play

We initiate with a primer on the copper sector. We elaborate on our fundamental rationale for being bullish on the metal and discuss different ways...

Sameer Taneja

Southern Copper (SCCO US): Summary of The Copper To 12,000 USD/Ton and Beyond Thesis In Two Slides

Southern Coppers Q3 FY25 presentation summarizes the bullish copper-to-12,000 USD/ton thesis and beyond very well. They see the copper deficit at...

Sameer Taneja

Copper Tracker July 22nd, 2024: Physical/Equity Screens And Trades, Copper Weak

Copper Tracker July 2024: Physical/Equity Screens And Trades