Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Following our insight, <a target="_blank">"Grasberg To Weigh On Copper Supply In The Medium-Term, March To 12k USD/Ton</a>," copper has taken a bit of a breather at 10,600 USD/Ton.</li>
<li>We assess all supply-related shocks that have occurred this year and summarize their impact on the copper market's supply.  A deficit of 500k tons in CY26 is on the cards.</li>
<li>Beneficiaries of the copper rally are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16279:1" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/antofagasta-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21814:1" rel="noopener">Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)</a>, which are our top picks. </li>
</ul>


Following our insight, "Grasberg To Weigh On Copper Supply In The Medium-Term, March To 12k USD/Ton," copper has taken a bit of a breather at 10,600 USD/Ton.
We assess all supply-related shocks that have occurred this year and summarize their impact on the copper market's supply.  A deficit of 500k tons in CY26 is on the cards.
Beneficiaries of the copper rally are Southern Copper (SCCO US) and Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN), which are our top picks. 


Copper To End The Year with Seasonal Strength: Onward To 12,000 USD/Ton

<ul>
<li>In our note <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/post-results-fy24-mine-by-mine-plan-production-commentary-on-copper-from-global-listed-companies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:179155" rel="noopener">Post Results FY24: Mine-By-Mine Plan Production + Commentary on Copper From Global Listed Companies</a>, we noted a mid-point guidance of 575,000 tons for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ivanhoe-mines-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25338:1" rel="noopener">Ivanhoe Mines (IVN CN)</a>.</li>
<li>The company revised this midpoint guidance down substantially to 400,000 tons following the discovery of Seismic activity in the Kakula mines (a 0.7% downward revision of global refined production). </li>
<li>The Kamoa-Kakula mine is the 4th largest mine in the world, and the mid-point guidance post 2027 was to ramp it beyond 700,000 tons. </li>
</ul>


In our note Post Results FY24: Mine-By-Mine Plan Production + Commentary on Copper From Global Listed Companies, we noted a mid-point guidance of 575,000 tons for Ivanhoe Mines (IVN CN).
The company revised this midpoint guidance down substantially to 400,000 tons following the discovery of Seismic activity in the Kakula mines (a 0.7% downward revision of global refined production). 
The Kamoa-Kakula mine is the 4th largest mine in the world, and the mid-point guidance post 2027 was to ramp it beyond 700,000 tons. 


Ivanhoe's Massive Guide Down And Copper Supply Impacts

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

<ul>
<li>A 4–6 month Kakula disruption could reduce Zijin’s 2025 copper output by 4–8%, cutting EBITDA by ~7–11%.</li>
<li>Ramp-Ups at Julong and Čukaru Peki can offset ~60–70% of the lost volume and partially protect margins.</li>
<li>Lithium is expected to grow from 8% to 20% of EBITDA by 2028, driven by 300kt LCE capacity from low-cost brine assets.</li>
</ul>


A 4–6 month Kakula disruption could reduce Zijin’s 2025 copper output by 4–8%, cutting EBITDA by ~7–11%.
Ramp-Ups at Julong and Čukaru Peki can offset ~60–70% of the lost volume and partially protect margins.
Lithium is expected to grow from 8% to 20% of EBITDA by 2028, driven by 300kt LCE capacity from low-cost brine assets.


Zijin Mining (601899 CH / 2899 HK): Evaluating the Impact of Kakula Suspension

<ul>
<li>Kakula mining is suspended due to seismic activity; dewatering and repairs are ongoing, with potential resolution by late Q3 2025 as operations gradually stabilize.</li>
<li>Ivanhoe quadrupled copper output since 2021, maintaining over 55% EBITDA margins through high-grade ore and efficient operations.</li>
<li>At US$2,000/t copper reserve value, Ivanhoe offers 40%+ upside—past disruptions like Vale and Freeport saw strong rebounds as uncertainty cleared.</li>
</ul>


Kakula mining is suspended due to seismic activity; dewatering and repairs are ongoing, with potential resolution by late Q3 2025 as operations gradually stabilize.
Ivanhoe quadrupled copper output since 2021, maintaining over 55% EBITDA margins through high-grade ore and efficient operations.
At US$2,000/t copper reserve value, Ivanhoe offers 40%+ upside—past disruptions like Vale and Freeport saw strong rebounds as uncertainty cleared.


Ivanhoe Mines (IVN CN): Seismic Setback Creates a Valuation Gap

<ul>
<li>The narrative surrounding China's front-loaded stimulus faced some headwinds as April's total social financing (TSF) figures undershot expectations, registering 1.16 trillion yuan compared to expected 1.3-1.4 trillion yuan.</li>
<li>Nonetheless, TSF remains up 28% ytd, reaching 15.2 trillion yuan, indicating a robust overall increase relative to the prior year. We expect it to pick up steam in future months. </li>
<li>We believe this will be bullish for copper pricing, coupled with the supply side sluggishness. (Read: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/post-results-fy24-mine-by-mine-plan-production-commentary-on-copper-from-global-listed-companies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:179155" rel="noopener">Post Results FY24: Mine-By-Mine Plan Production + Commentary on Copper From Global Listed Companies</a> ).</li>
</ul>


The narrative surrounding China's front-loaded stimulus faced some headwinds as April's total social financing (TSF) figures undershot expectations, registering 1.16 trillion yuan compared to expected 1.3-1.4 trillion yuan.
Nonetheless, TSF remains up 28% ytd, reaching 15.2 trillion yuan, indicating a robust overall increase relative to the prior year. We expect it to pick up steam in future months. 
We believe this will be bullish for copper pricing, coupled with the supply side sluggishness. (Read: Post Results FY24: Mine-By-Mine Plan Production + Commentary on Copper From Global Listed Companies ).


Copper Tracker 26th May 2025: TSF Momentum Dampened on Trump Tariffs in April

Canada

Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. is a Canadian mining company focused on advancing its principal mine development projects in southern Africa: the Platreef platinum-gold-nickel-copper project in South Africa, and the Kamoa-Kakula copper project and the Kipushi zinc-copper-silver-germanium mine in the DRC.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Ivanhoe Mines (IVN CN)

Copper To End The Year with Seasonal Strength: Onward To 12,000 USD/Ton

Copper is poised for a strong seasonal rally as supply disruptions tighten markets and demand strengthens; we detail recent outages and updated...

Sameer Taneja

Ivanhoe's Massive Guide Down And Copper Supply Impacts

We detail another major event that could further push the copper market into deficit in the short term for CY25, potentially exceeding 400,000 tons.

Sameer Taneja

Zijin Mining (601899 CH / 2899 HK): Evaluating the Impact of Kakula Suspension

Potential Kakula disruption could impact Zijin's copper output and EBITDA, but ramp-ups at other sites and growth in lithium could partially...

Rahul Jain