Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Hokkoku Financial Holdings / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Japanese banks have been in a relative sweetspot for a couple of years. Higher rates, higher inflation, more FX volatility, better earnings, stronger buybacks. Cross-holding sales up but not spectacular.</li>
<li>The BOJ may raise rates but Trump Tariff retaliation/mitigation is a question. Elections the next two weeks and earnings the 2-3 weeks after that may keep things a question. </li>
<li>But buybacks should pick up. Lots announced in spring end at or before Q1 earnings. And I expect substantial new buybacks to be announced throughout the from Q1 results on.</li>
</ul>


Japanese banks have been in a relative sweetspot for a couple of years. Higher rates, higher inflation, more FX volatility, better earnings, stronger buybacks. Cross-holding sales up but not spectacular.
The BOJ may raise rates but Trump Tariff retaliation/mitigation is a question. Elections the next two weeks and earnings the 2-3 weeks after that may keep things a question. 
But buybacks should pick up. Lots announced in spring end at or before Q1 earnings. And I expect substantial new buybacks to be announced throughout the from Q1 results on.


[Japan Buybacks] - Japan Bank Metrics, Cross-Holdings and Banks Part 1

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Japanese Mid-cap Banks – Iyogin (TSE:5830) remains our top pick, we drop Hokuhoku from the buy list</li>
<li>Iyogin and Nishi-Nippon rank first and second in our scorecard; Iyogin is a virtual “all-rounder” in terms of attributes whilst Nishi-Nippon scores highly on interest rate gearing and valuation</li>
<li>Hachijuni remains a buy, as it leads on equity shareholdings to market capitalisation and its interest rate gearing is improving; we take profits on Hokuhoku, downgrading it to a neutral</li>
</ul>


Japanese Mid-cap Banks – Iyogin (TSE:5830) remains our top pick, we drop Hokuhoku from the buy list
Iyogin and Nishi-Nippon rank first and second in our scorecard; Iyogin is a virtual “all-rounder” in terms of attributes whilst Nishi-Nippon scores highly on interest rate gearing and valuation
Hachijuni remains a buy, as it leads on equity shareholdings to market capitalisation and its interest rate gearing is improving; we take profits on Hokuhoku, downgrading it to a neutral


Japanese Mid-Cap Banks – Iyogin (TSE:5830) Remains Our Top Pick, We Drop Hokuhoku from the Buy List

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We look at which Japan banks have the most cash which can see a major boost to returns. </li>
<li>Banks with lower margins can see a higher net interest income pick up from rising rates. </li>
<li>Loan growth in Japan has been relatively strong, supportive of rising rates from BOJ.</li>
</ul>


We look at which Japan banks have the most cash which can see a major boost to returns. 
Banks with lower margins can see a higher net interest income pick up from rising rates. 
Loan growth in Japan has been relatively strong, supportive of rising rates from BOJ.


Japan - Rising Rates: Focus On Banks With High Cash And Low Margins

<ul>
<li>Regional bank consolidation is on the menu in Japan. Expect more of it.</li>
<li>Intra-Prefecture is the obvious case. In rural prefectures, JA and the Post Bank are credible deposit-taker competition. SME lending is less obvious, though cross-border (neighbouring prefecture) combinations could arise.</li>
<li>A new transaction suggests another combination is on its way. I'd buy.</li>
</ul>


Regional bank consolidation is on the menu in Japan. Expect more of it.
Intra-Prefecture is the obvious case. In rural prefectures, JA and the Post Bank are credible deposit-taker competition. SME lending is less obvious, though cross-border (neighbouring prefecture) combinations could arise.
A new transaction suggests another combination is on its way. I'd buy.


[Japan M&A] Regional Bank Consolidation Efforts May Pick Up

<ul>
<li>We enhance and update our scorecard in this report on ten Japanese mid-cap banks focusing on key factors such as gearing to higher interest rates and the banks’ equity shareholdings</li>
<li>Iyogin Holdings remains our top pick, for its pre-provision returns and equity shareholdings; Hokuhoku Financial is top three in the scorecard and Hachijuni tops the equity shareholdings to market cap</li>
<li>We add new coverage Nishi-Nippon Financial to the buy list; it ranks second in the scorecard with its high gearing to rising interest rates and its very attractive PEG ratio</li>
</ul>


We enhance and update our scorecard in this report on ten Japanese mid-cap banks focusing on key factors such as gearing to higher interest rates and the banks’ equity shareholdings
Iyogin Holdings remains our top pick, for its pre-provision returns and equity shareholdings; Hokuhoku Financial is top three in the scorecard and Hachijuni tops the equity shareholdings to market cap
We add new coverage Nishi-Nippon Financial to the buy list; it ranks second in the scorecard with its high gearing to rising interest rates and its very attractive PEG ratio


Japanese Mid-Cap Banks – Multiple Tailwinds

Japan

Iyogin Holdings, Inc. operates as a holding company. The Company provides operation and management of bank related subsidiary companies. Iyogin Holdings provides its services throughout Japan.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Iyogin Holdings (5830 JP)

[Japan Buybacks] - Japan Bank Metrics, Cross-Holdings and Banks Part 1

This is the first of several episodes regarding Japanese Banks. I want to make the size palatable and offer base data and framework with which to...

Travis Lundy

Japanese Mid-Cap Banks – Iyogin (TSE:5830) Remains Our Top Pick, We Drop Hokuhoku from the Buy List

Top pick Iyogin stands out as an "all-rounder" in mid-cap banks, Nishi-Nippon and Hachijuni also stay on the buy list for their positive...

Victor Galliano

Japan - Rising Rates: Focus On Banks With High Cash And Low Margins

BOJ to meet 23-24 Jan and likely to raise rates possibly by doubling short-term rates, from 0.25% to 0.50%. There are important implications for...

Daniel Tabbush

[Japan M&A] Regional Bank Consolidation Efforts May Pick Up

Japan regional bank consolidation will continue. We may have a new candidate. I'd be long the small target in this case, assuming that value will out.

Travis Lundy

Japanese Mid-Cap Banks – Multiple Tailwinds

In the Japanese mid-cap banks, we highlight Iyogin Holdings as our top pick, keep Hokuhoku and Hachijuni on te buy list, and add Nishi-Nippon to...

Victor Galliano

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Japan Buybacks] - Japan Bank Metrics, Cross-Holdings and Banks Part 1

This is the first of several episodes regarding Japanese Banks. I want to make the size palatable and offer base data and framework with which to...

Travis Lundy

Japanese Mid-Cap Banks – Iyogin (TSE:5830) Remains Our Top Pick, We Drop Hokuhoku from the Buy List

​Top pick Iyogin stands out as an "all-rounder" in mid-cap banks, Nishi-Nippon and Hachijuni also stay on the buy list for their positive...

Victor Galliano

Japan - Rising Rates: Focus On Banks With High Cash And Low Margins

BOJ to meet 23-24 Jan and likely to raise rates possibly by doubling short-term rates, from 0.25% to 0.50%. There are important implications for...

Daniel Tabbush

[Japan M&A] Regional Bank Consolidation Efforts May Pick Up

Japan regional bank consolidation will continue. We may have a new candidate. I'd be long the small target in this case, assuming that value will out.

Travis Lundy

Japanese Mid-Cap Banks – Multiple Tailwinds

In the Japanese mid-cap banks, we highlight Iyogin Holdings as our top pick, keep Hokuhoku and Hachijuni on te buy list, and add Nishi-Nippon to...

Victor Galliano

Top pick Iyogin stands out as an "all-rounder" in mid-cap banks, Nishi-Nippon and Hachijuni also stay on the buy list for their positive...