Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 39 adds/34 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index to bring the number of index constituents back to 400. There are stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.</li>
<li>Based on the adds, deletes and capping changes, we estimate one way turnover of 6.7% and a round-trip trade of JPY 946bn (US$6.4bn).</li>
<li>The adds have outperformed the deletes over the last year and there has been a move higher in the last few days too.</li>
</ul>


There are 39 adds/34 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index to bring the number of index constituents back to 400. There are stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.
Based on the adds, deletes and capping changes, we estimate one way turnover of 6.7% and a round-trip trade of JPY 946bn (US$6.4bn).
The adds have outperformed the deletes over the last year and there has been a move higher in the last few days too.


JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: US$6.4bn Round-Trip Trade Coming Up

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/matsuya-co-ltd-25630769-1690-43a0-a02d-75db9e9aac59" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17802:1" rel="noopener">Matsuya Co Ltd (8237 JP)</a> had a terrific FY2024, posting a new sales record at its Ginza store, the first since 1992. </li>
<li>There are worries that this year or next will be the peak given the ongoing decline in sales to locals, and if a strengthening Yen puts paid to tourist largesse.</li>
<li>The same headwinds are hitting all the major department store firms, including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/isetan-mitsukoshi-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18871:1" rel="noopener">Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings Ltd (3099 JP),</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takashimaya-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:370:1" rel="noopener">Takashimaya (8233 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-front-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8947:1" rel="noopener">J Front Retailing (3086 JP).</a>
</li>
</ul>



Matsuya Co Ltd (8237 JP) had a terrific FY2024, posting a new sales record at its Ginza store, the first since 1992. 
There are worries that this year or next will be the peak given the ongoing decline in sales to locals, and if a strengthening Yen puts paid to tourist largesse.
The same headwinds are hitting all the major department store firms, including Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings Ltd (3099 JP),Takashimaya (8233 JP) and J Front Retailing (3086 JP).



Matsuya’s Record Sales May Signal Peak for Sector

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

<ul>
<li>We identified overvalued, over-leveraged, low growth stocks on EPS growth, high PEG, low ROE, high P/BV, high leverage.  Clients opined that EBITDA is more stable earnings parameter for such stocks.</li>
<li>Based on clients’ feedback we now screen the stocks using EBITDA growth as the earnings growth parameter and EV as the corresponding valuation parameter.</li>
<li>Our screen yields 30 stocks - 20 from Japan (largely property/REIT) and 10 from HK/China. 7 stocks are common to the EPS-PE and EBITDA-EV lists - mostly from Japanese property.</li>
</ul>


We identified overvalued, over-leveraged, low growth stocks on EPS growth, high PEG, low ROE, high P/BV, high leverage.  Clients opined that EBITDA is more stable earnings parameter for such stocks.
Based on clients’ feedback we now screen the stocks using EBITDA growth as the earnings growth parameter and EV as the corresponding valuation parameter.
Our screen yields 30 stocks - 20 from Japan (largely property/REIT) and 10 from HK/China. 7 stocks are common to the EPS-PE and EBITDA-EV lists - mostly from Japanese property.


Asian Equities: Overvalued, Over-Leveraged, Low Growth – a Different Look

<ul>
<li>Until quite recently, Nagoya had seven department stores but will soon have just four. </li>
<li>This follows Meitetsu’s decision to close its flagship store to clear the way for a major redevelopment of the station area.</li>
<li>The new development will include retail and so bring some competition to Takashimaya, which now dominates department store retailing in the city, but not before 2033.</li>
</ul>


Until quite recently, Nagoya had seven department stores but will soon have just four. 
This follows Meitetsu’s decision to close its flagship store to clear the way for a major redevelopment of the station area.
The new development will include retail and so bring some competition to Takashimaya, which now dominates department store retailing in the city, but not before 2033.


Meitetsu Transport (9077JP) Confirms Closure of Last Department Store

<ul>
<li>J Front has been pushing ahead with new ways to get younger (and richer) customers into its stores. </li>
<li>It recently opened a high end art floor at Matsuzakaya Nagoya, continues to expand its fashion subscription business, and will shortly open the first joint store with Komehyo.</li>
<li>It is also investing heavily in real estate in key cities as a third major platform to its business.</li>
</ul>


J Front has been pushing ahead with new ways to get younger (and richer) customers into its stores. 
It recently opened a high end art floor at Matsuzakaya Nagoya, continues to expand its fashion subscription business, and will shortly open the first joint store with Komehyo.
It is also investing heavily in real estate in key cities as a third major platform to its business.


J Front Diversifies to Generate More Income

Japan

J. FRONT RETAILING CO., Ltd. is a holding company established through the merger of Daimaru and Matsuzakaya.  J. FRONT RETAILING operates department stores and supermarkets. The Company also manages subsidiaries which operate in wholesale businesses.

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J Front Retailing (3086 JP)

JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: US$6.4bn Round-Trip Trade Coming Up

There are 39 adds/34 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index resulting in a one-way turnover of 6.7% and a round-trip trade of JPY 946bn (US$6.4bn)....

Brian Freitas

Matsuya’s Record Sales May Signal Peak for Sector

Matsuya had a strong FY2024 with record sales, but this may be the peak due to falling local sales and impact of strong Yen on tourist spending....

Michael Causton

Asian Equities: Overvalued, Over-Leveraged, Low Growth – a Different Look

We modify our "stocks to avoid" list using EBITDA as the earnings parameter & EV as the valuation parameter. We screen 30 stocks, mostly from...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Meitetsu Transport (9077JP) Confirms Closure of Last Department Store

Nagoya's department store landscape is changing as Meitetsu closes flagship store for redevelopment, bringing competition to Takashimaya by 2033.

Michael Causton

J Front Diversifies to Generate More Income

J Front is diversifying to raise OPM, targeting younger, wealthier customers by opening high-end art floors, expanding fashion subscriptions, and...

Michael Causton

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: US$6.4bn Round-Trip Trade Coming Up

There are 39 adds/34 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index resulting in a one-way turnover of 6.7% and a round-trip trade of JPY 946bn (US$6.4bn)....

Brian Freitas

Matsuya’s Record Sales May Signal Peak for Sector

​Matsuya had a strong FY2024 with record sales, but this may be the peak due to falling local sales and impact of strong Yen on tourist spending....

Michael Causton

Asian Equities: Overvalued, Over-Leveraged, Low Growth – a Different Look

​We modify our "stocks to avoid" list using EBITDA as the earnings parameter & EV as the valuation parameter. We screen 30 stocks, mostly from...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Meitetsu Transport (9077JP) Confirms Closure of Last Department Store

​Nagoya's department store landscape is changing as Meitetsu closes flagship store for redevelopment, bringing competition to Takashimaya by 2033.

Michael Causton

J Front Diversifies to Generate More Income

​J Front is diversifying to raise OPM, targeting younger, wealthier customers by opening high-end art floors, expanding fashion subscriptions, and...

Michael Causton

Matsuya had a strong FY2024 with record sales, but this may be the peak due to falling local sales and impact of strong Yen on tourist spending....

We modify our "stocks to avoid" list using EBITDA as the earnings parameter & EV as the valuation parameter. We screen 30 stocks, mostly from...

Nagoya's department store landscape is changing as Meitetsu closes flagship store for redevelopment, bringing competition to Takashimaya by 2033.

J Front is diversifying to raise OPM, targeting younger, wealthier customers by opening high-end art floors, expanding fashion subscriptions, and...