Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The US Court of International Trade has lifted stay on lawsuit tied to US de minimis imports</li>
<li>The lawsuit seeks to reverse the Trump admin's order to ban low-value de minimis imports</li>
<li>A return of the US$800 de minimis exemption would be welcome news for SHEIN, Temu</li>
</ul>


The US Court of International Trade has lifted stay on lawsuit tied to US de minimis imports
The lawsuit seeks to reverse the Trump admin's order to ban low-value de minimis imports
A return of the US$800 de minimis exemption would be welcome news for SHEIN, Temu


US De Minimis Exemption Back From the Dead?! Court Revives Lawsuit, Orders Briefings in Coming Weeks

Cainiao Smart Logistics Network / Equity Capital Markets

Cainiao Smart Logistics Network (1437124D HK)

<ul>
<li>The transaction reportedly values Chinese "robovan" maker ZelosTech at around US$2 bn</li>
<li>We offer background on ZelosTech: history, funding, products, key operating partners</li>
<li>'So what?' CaiNiao gave up its AV business, think "robovans" first, PONY's status dented</li>
</ul>


The transaction reportedly values Chinese "robovan" maker ZelosTech at around US$2 bn
We offer background on ZelosTech: history, funding, products, key operating partners
'So what?' CaiNiao gave up its AV business, think "robovans" first, PONY's status dented


Alibaba's CaiNiao Takes Stake in Robovan Maker ZelosTech | Who Is ZelosTech, Why Does Deal Matter?

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>With the exception of SF Holding, all listed express firms reported lower H1 OP%</li>
<li>SF's independence and unique product mix protected profits as volume surged</li>
<li>We suggest going Long SF Hldg against Short positions in ZTO &amp; J&amp;T</li>
</ul>


With the exception of SF Holding, all listed express firms reported lower H1 OP%
SF's independence and unique product mix protected profits as volume surged
We suggest going Long SF Hldg against Short positions in ZTO &amp; J&amp;T


Chinese Express Firms All Saw H1 OPM% Fall -- Except SF Hldg | Pair Trade: LONG SF Vs SHORT ZTO, J&T

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>2025 has seen a sharp turnaround in HK placements, with 36 US$100m+ deals so far. This compares to only 14 in 2022, 13 in 2023, and 15 in 2024.</li>
<li>Most of the 2025 placements have been primary raising and have come from a handful of sectors/backdrops.</li>
<li>In this note, we try to identify the possible primary placements that could take place over the rest of the year.</li>
</ul>


2025 has seen a sharp turnaround in HK placements, with 36 US$100m+ deals so far. This compares to only 14 in 2022, 13 in 2023, and 15 in 2024.
Most of the 2025 placements have been primary raising and have come from a handful of sectors/backdrops.
In this note, we try to identify the possible primary placements that could take place over the rest of the year.


Hong Kong 2025 Placements - Year so Far and Trends for Potential Primary Placements

<ul>
<li>Q424 revenue growth &amp; EBITDA margin both improved noticeably vs Q324 </li>
<li>Additionally, ZTO gave FY25 parcel volume guidance that implies an acceleration of growth</li>
<li>But "key" change in revenue mix is crushing cash returns (Q424 OpCF down -28% Y/Y)</li>
</ul>


Q424 revenue growth &amp; EBITDA margin both improved noticeably vs Q324 
Additionally, ZTO gave FY25 parcel volume guidance that implies an acceleration of growth
But "key" change in revenue mix is crushing cash returns (Q424 OpCF down -28% Y/Y)


Q424 ZTO Express Results & FY25 Guidance: Revenue Growth & Margin Better, But OpCF Shrinking; AVOID

China

J&T Global Express is an investment holding company primarily engaged in providing integrated express delivery and global logistics services. The company offers parcel sorting, line-haul transportation, dispatching, cross-border services, and cash-on-delivery. It was founded in 2015 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.

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J&T Global Express (1519 HK)

US De Minimis Exemption Back From the Dead?! Court Revives Lawsuit, Orders Briefings in Coming Weeks

A US court has quietly allowed a lawsuit against the US Department of Commerce to move forward. If the plaintiff prevails, the US "de minimis"...

Tracking Traffic

Alibaba's CaiNiao Takes Stake in Robovan Maker ZelosTech | Who Is ZelosTech, Why Does Deal Matter?

Last week came news that Alibaba's logistics arm, CaiNiao, had taken a minority stake in autonomous "robovan" maker ZelosTech. In this insight we...

Tracking Traffic

Chinese Express Firms All Saw H1 OPM% Fall -- Except SF Hldg | Pair Trade: LONG SF Vs SHORT ZTO, J&T

SF Holding's unique position within China's eComm fulfillment space allowed it to successfully defend against the margin pressures that afflicted...

Tracking Traffic

Hong Kong 2025 Placements - Year so Far and Trends for Potential Primary Placements

1H25 saw a sharp turnaround in HK placements, with 36 US$100m+ deals so far. This compares to only 14 in 2022, 13 in 2023, and 15 in 2024. In this...

Sumeet Singh

Q424 ZTO Express Results & FY25 Guidance: Revenue Growth & Margin Better, But OpCF Shrinking; AVOID

ZTO's revenue momentum and core margin improved in Q424, but at the cost of deteriorating Cash Flow. We view the strong recent growth of "key...

Tracking Traffic

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