Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Last week J&amp;T Global Express reported Q324 express parcel volume by segment</li>
<li>Volume growth in all segments slowed dramatically compared to Q224</li>
<li>Without needed context, we believe the numbers undermine J&amp;T growth story</li>
</ul>


Last week J&amp;T Global Express reported Q324 express parcel volume by segment
Volume growth in all segments slowed dramatically compared to Q224
Without needed context, we believe the numbers undermine J&amp;T growth story


Quick Take on J&T Global Express Q324: Volume Growth in All Segments Slowed Dramatically

<ul>
<li>J&amp;T Global Express this week reported a strong Y/Y improvement in EBITDA</li>
<li>The most dramatic improvement came at the company's China operation</li>
<li>But the drivers of this improvement appear odd, even contradictory; AVOID</li>
</ul>


J&amp;T Global Express this week reported a strong Y/Y improvement in EBITDA
The most dramatic improvement came at the company's China operation
But the drivers of this improvement appear odd, even contradictory; AVOID


J&T Global Express H124 Results: A Dramatic Turnaround? But Something Doesn't Make Sense

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>J&amp;T Global Express, a global logistics provider, raised about US$500m in its Hong Kong IPO in Oct 2023. Its pre-IPO investors will be released from its IPO linked lockup soon.</li>
<li>As per Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S), the firm is the leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia, with a 25.4% market share as per 2023 parcel volume.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry and possible deal dynamics.</li>
</ul>


J&amp;T Global Express, a global logistics provider, raised about US$500m in its Hong Kong IPO in Oct 2023. Its pre-IPO investors will be released from its IPO linked lockup soon.
As per Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S), the firm is the leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia, with a 25.4% market share as per 2023 parcel volume.
In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry and possible deal dynamics.


J&T Global Express IPO Lock-Up Expiry - Tiny Float with 87%+ Stake Lockup Release Worth >US$8.8bn

Equity Capital Markets

J&T Global Express  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we examine <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-t-global-express-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36819:1" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express (1936374D CH)</a>'s operation in SE Asia, where it's the region's dominant player, with market share of 22.5% by volume </li>
<li>We profile SE Asian demand and supply and compare these to the development of China's express industry, acknowledging the key role <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US)</a> has played there</li>
<li>We also present a framework for estimating the value of J&amp;T's SE Asian operation by identifying the most appropriate comps and EV valuation multiples</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we examine J&amp;T Global Express (1936374D CH)'s operation in SE Asia, where it's the region's dominant player, with market share of 22.5% by volume 
We profile SE Asian demand and supply and compare these to the development of China's express industry, acknowledging the key role Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US) has played there
We also present a framework for estimating the value of J&amp;T's SE Asian operation by identifying the most appropriate comps and EV valuation multiples


J&T Global Express Pre-IPO, Part 2: SE Asia Operation | Demand, Supply Profiles | Valuation Approach

<ul>
<li>Industry and company reports show ASP declines gained momentum in April</li>
<li>April volume jumped 36% Y/Y on a weak comp from 2022 (Covid-19 lockdowns)</li>
<li>Our thesis: pricing is getting weaker, and this trend will soon impact margins</li>
</ul>


Industry and company reports show ASP declines gained momentum in April
April volume jumped 36% Y/Y on a weak comp from 2022 (Covid-19 lockdowns)
Our thesis: pricing is getting weaker, and this trend will soon impact margins


Monthly Express Tracker | Prices Continue to Slide | Volume Pops | (May 2023)

Hong Kong

J&T Global Express Limited operates as a global logistics service provider. The Company offers road express delivery, air express transportation, supply chain warehousing, and other value added services. J&T Global Express conducts business in China, Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, and other countries.

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J&T Global Express (1519 HK)

Quick Take on J&T Global Express Q324: Volume Growth in All Segments Slowed Dramatically

Last week J&T Global Express reported a sharp slowdown in average daily parcel volume in all of its operating segments. We think the numbers...

Tracking Traffic

J&T Global Express H124 Results: A Dramatic Turnaround? But Something Doesn't Make Sense

The Chinese domestic express segment reportedly drove a strong Y/Y improvement in adjusted EBITDA at J&T Global Express. But some of the drivers of...

Tracking Traffic

J&T Global Express IPO Lock-Up Expiry - Tiny Float with 87%+ Stake Lockup Release Worth >US$8.8bn

J&T Global Express' IPO linked lockup expired over the weeked. The stock has been correcting over the past few weeks, especially with the CCASS...

Sumeet Singh

J&T Global Express Pre-IPO, Part 2: SE Asia Operation | Demand, Supply Profiles | Valuation Approach

We're pulling this insight out of the archives in light of J&T's updated filing and its decision to begin pushing forward with its IPO in Hong Kong...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Express Tracker | Prices Continue to Slide | Volume Pops | (May 2023)

In April, express volume shot up 36% against easy Y/Y comps, but ASPs deepened their recent decline. We believe pricing will continue to...

Tracking Traffic

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