Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and we will maintain our bullish outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is above 6028-6059.</li>
<li>For now, we continue to expect support to show up at the 4-month uptrend, which generally coincides with the 20-day MA.</li>
<li>Speculative growth themes and metals/mining (GDX, XME) remain leadership, which we expect to continue through year-end and into the early part of 2026</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and we will maintain our bullish outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is above 6028-6059.
For now, we continue to expect support to show up at the 4-month uptrend, which generally coincides with the 20-day MA.
Speculative growth themes and metals/mining (GDX, XME) remain leadership, which we expect to continue through year-end and into the early part of 2026


S&P 500 and Russell 2000 4+ Month Uptrends Intact; Stick With Growth Themes and Metals/Mining

iShares MSCI China ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>Short-Term supports on the SPX include the 20-day MA (currently 6233), 6200, 6100-6150, and 6028-6059, with additional supports at 5804-5854 and 5700-5785. Buy pullbacks to these areas.</li>
<li>SPX has not closed below its 20-day MA for two months, but even when it does, all we would expect to happen is for a new, less-steep uptrend to form.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
Short-Term supports on the SPX include the 20-day MA (currently 6233), 6200, 6100-6150, and 6028-6059, with additional supports at 5804-5854 and 5700-5785. Buy pullbacks to these areas.
SPX has not closed below its 20-day MA for two months, but even when it does, all we would expect to happen is for a new, less-steep uptrend to form.


More Breakouts and Risk-On Developments; Monitoring Rotations: Miners, Retail, Lithium, China

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish following the S&amp;P 500's multi-month base breakout above 5670, alongside constructive market dynamics; the path of least resistance is higher.</li>
<li>We have discussed for the past two weeks (since our 10/22/24 Compass) how we would treat any pre-election pullback as a buying opportunity, and we are finally getting a pullback.</li>
<li>We expect SPX support at 5600-5670, and will remain bullish as long as 5600 support holds. Starting as early as today/tomorrow, we expect a strong end-of-year rally extending into early-2025</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish following the S&amp;P 500's multi-month base breakout above 5670, alongside constructive market dynamics; the path of least resistance is higher.
We have discussed for the past two weeks (since our 10/22/24 Compass) how we would treat any pre-election pullback as a buying opportunity, and we are finally getting a pullback.
We expect SPX support at 5600-5670, and will remain bullish as long as 5600 support holds. Starting as early as today/tomorrow, we expect a strong end-of-year rally extending into early-2025


Buy the Pullback; Expecting Significant End of Year Rally to Start as Soon as Today or Tomorrow

<ul>
<li>Considering constructive market dynamics and the recent $SPX breakout above 5783 following several months of consolidation, we upgraded our outlook to bullish as of our 10/15/24 U.S. Macro Vision report</li>
<li>Since late-July, we have been neutral on the SPX, preferring to buy near 5100-5200 support and sell near 5670-5783 resistance until there is a break in either direction.</li>
<li>The verdict of the market is the only one that matters, and the breakout above 5783 is the market's way of saying the path of least resistance is higher.</li>
</ul>


Considering constructive market dynamics and the recent $SPX breakout above 5783 following several months of consolidation, we upgraded our outlook to bullish as of our 10/15/24 U.S. Macro Vision report
Since late-July, we have been neutral on the SPX, preferring to buy near 5100-5200 support and sell near 5670-5783 resistance until there is a break in either direction.
The verdict of the market is the only one that matters, and the breakout above 5783 is the market's way of saying the path of least resistance is higher.


Bullish Outlook Focused on Large- And Mid-Caps; Russell 2000 Below Resistance; Concerns Dwindling

<ul>
<li>The $SPX continues to hold below 5783, the upper-end of an important target/resistance area (5670-5783) we've discussed since our 8/13/24 Compass, just after SPX hit our 5100-5191 "expected pullback zone."</li>
<li>The current "breakout" above 5670 is an extraordinarily weak one, which suggests a false breakout/bull trap is brewing; SPX has spent nearly three weeks above 5670, with zero upside follow-through.</li>
<li>As long as the SPX does not have a weekly close above 5783 we continue to recommend reducing risk and shifting to defensives.</li>
</ul>


The $SPX continues to hold below 5783, the upper-end of an important target/resistance area (5670-5783) we've discussed since our 8/13/24 Compass, just after SPX hit our 5100-5191 "expected pullback zone."
The current "breakout" above 5670 is an extraordinarily weak one, which suggests a false breakout/bull trap is brewing; SPX has spent nearly three weeks above 5670, with zero upside follow-through.
As long as the SPX does not have a weekly close above 5783 we continue to recommend reducing risk and shifting to defensives.


Bull Trap Still Brewing?; Treasury Yields and DXY Climbing; Stay Defensive With $SPX Below 5783

United States

Jacobs Solutions Inc. provides technical professional services. The Company offers engineering and construction services, as well as scientific and specialty consulting for a broad range of clients including companies, organizations, and government agencies. Jacobs Solutions serves customers worldwide.

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Jacobs Solutions (J US)

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