Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>On a combined basis, air travel demand in January-February 2026 was up modestly Y/Y</li>
<li>Chinese carriers face sharply higher international jet fuel prices, up 60%+ vs February</li>
<li>Planned fuel surcharges planned for April could hit consumer demand for air travel</li>
</ul>


On a combined basis, air travel demand in January-February 2026 was up modestly Y/Y
Chinese carriers face sharply higher international jet fuel prices, up 60%+ vs February
Planned fuel surcharges planned for April could hit consumer demand for air travel


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | January-February Growth Softer | Fuel Surcharges Could Hit Demand

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cathay-pacific-airways-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:243:1" rel="noopener">Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK)</a>'s Jan figures suggest a good start, as passenger traffic grew 12.3% despite a high base in the last year.  </li>
<li>The market consensus forecast of 8% profit decline for FY26 is too conservative. Even on such a forecast, it still trades on an undemanding 9.3x PER and 4.8% yield.</li>
<li>CX is expected to have an average FY25-27F ROE of 15.9%, the highest level in the last 15 years. Hence, its P/B of 1.35x is inexpensive.</li>
</ul>



Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK)'s Jan figures suggest a good start, as passenger traffic grew 12.3% despite a high base in the last year.  
The market consensus forecast of 8% profit decline for FY26 is too conservative. Even on such a forecast, it still trades on an undemanding 9.3x PER and 4.8% yield.
CX is expected to have an average FY25-27F ROE of 15.9%, the highest level in the last 15 years. Hence, its P/B of 1.35x is inexpensive.


<ul>
<li>Slower pace of January activity growth explained by timing of long LNY holidays in 2025/26 </li>
<li>Initial numbers from LNY holiday period show more trips,  but tight purse-strings</li>
<li>Airlines appear to be managing well; a clearer picture of consumer will emerge soon</li>
</ul>


Slower pace of January activity growth explained by timing of long LNY holidays in 2025/26 
Initial numbers from LNY holiday period show more trips,  but tight purse-strings
Airlines appear to be managing well; a clearer picture of consumer will emerge soon


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | January Impacted by LNY Timing | Initial LNY 2026 Numbers So-So

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Virgin Australia Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Bain Capital raised around US$440m via selling some of its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/virgin-australia-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:814:1" rel="noopener">Virgin Australia (VAH AU)</a> IPO in June 2025. Some of Bain’s stake could be released from escrow soon.</li>
<li>Virgin Australia (VA) is the second largest airline group operating in the Australian aviation market, with an average 32% domestic RPT capacity market share in CY24.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.</li>
</ul>


Bain Capital raised around US$440m via selling some of its stake in Virgin Australia (VAH AU) IPO in June 2025. Some of Bain’s stake could be released from escrow soon.
Virgin Australia (VA) is the second largest airline group operating in the Australian aviation market, with an average 32% domestic RPT capacity market share in CY24.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.


Aequitas: Virgin Australia IPO Lockup - Escrow Release Is a Moving Target that Is Getting Closer

<ul>
<li>Legal border crossings in/out of the US in December continued to weaken, including by air</li>
<li>By region, Northern crossings remain weakest; inbound West air crossings still up Y/Y</li>
<li>Numbers suggest tourism activity from Asian sources remains relatively resilient</li>
</ul>


Legal border crossings in/out of the US in December continued to weaken, including by air
By region, Northern crossings remain weakest; inbound West air crossings still up Y/Y
Numbers suggest tourism activity from Asian sources remains relatively resilient


December 2025 USCBP Data Shows US Border Crossing Activity Continued to Decline, Especially in North

Japan

Japan Airlines Co. Ltd. provides air transportation services. The Company offers a variety of scheduled  flights and unscheduled flights throughout the world as well as offers air courier services. Japan Airlines also provides tickets, resort hotels, and travel agencies services.

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Japan Airlines (9201 JP)

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | January-February Growth Softer | Fuel Surcharges Could Hit Demand

On a combined basis, January-February Chinese air travel rose modestly compare to 2025. If carriers follow through with planned fuel surcharges,...

Tracking Traffic

Cathay Pacific (293 HK): A Good Start

CX's FY25 net profit of HK$10.8bn (+9.5% YoY) has beaten market expectations widely, as it is 19.1% ahead of the consensus forecast. With a second...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | January Impacted by LNY Timing | Initial LNY 2026 Numbers So-So

January's Chinese tourism activity data were hurt by the timing of the LNY holiday. We have initial holiday numbers, but we'll get a better sense...

Tracking Traffic

Aequitas: Virgin Australia IPO Lockup - Escrow Release Is a Moving Target that Is Getting Closer

Bain Capital raised around US$440m via selling some of its stake in Virgin Australia (VAH AU) IPO in June 2025. Some of Bain’s stake could be...

Sumeet Singh

December 2025 USCBP Data Shows US Border Crossing Activity Continued to Decline, Especially in North

December data from US Customs and Border Protection show reduced border crossings in and out of the US. One bright spot is air crossings in the...

Tracking Traffic

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