Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

China Southern Airlines / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>After an upturn in October-November, pace of outbound air travel softened in December</li>
<li>But domestic air activity continued to strengthen in December -- a positive surprise</li>
<li>Continued strength of outbound air travel demand could imply emphasis on frugality</li>
</ul>


After an upturn in October-November, pace of outbound air travel softened in December
But domestic air activity continued to strengthen in December -- a positive surprise
Continued strength of outbound air travel demand could imply emphasis on frugality


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | December Outbound Pace Softer, but Domestic Activity Strengthened

<ul>
<li>Overall US border crossings fell in November 2025, but crossings by air were up Y/Y (again)</li>
<li>Northern crossings fell sharply, down -14% Y/Y; local businesses in US, Canada hit hardest</li>
<li>But crossings at Western air gateways surged, which could imply Asian tourism reslience</li>
</ul>


Overall US border crossings fell in November 2025, but crossings by air were up Y/Y (again)
Northern crossings fell sharply, down -14% Y/Y; local businesses in US, Canada hit hardest
But crossings at Western air gateways surged, which could imply Asian tourism reslience


US Customs & Border Protection Data: Northern Crossings Down, Western (Asian?) Air Crossings Firmer

<ul>
<li>Both domestic and outbound air travel activity have improved in recent months</li>
<li>Chinese carriers are now enjoying unusually high load factors on outbound travel</li>
<li>Trip.com is a laggard vs the airlines, but it doesn't appear cheap to us</li>
</ul>


Both domestic and outbound air travel activity have improved in recent months
Chinese carriers are now enjoying unusually high load factors on outbound travel
Trip.com is a laggard vs the airlines, but it doesn't appear cheap to us


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Sudden Upturn in Domestic and Outbound Demand  (December 2025)

<ul>
<li>Growth rates of outbound and domestic air travel slowed again in September</li>
<li>Initial read on Golden Week demand: weak activity growth, weaker spending</li>
<li>In our view, it's increasingly difficult to retain an upbeat view of the sector</li>
</ul>


Growth rates of outbound and domestic air travel slowed again in September
Initial read on Golden Week demand: weak activity growth, weaker spending
In our view, it's increasingly difficult to retain an upbeat view of the sector


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Pace of Growth Slowed, Again | Golden Week? | October 2025

<ul>
<li>Despite a few pockets of improved demand, key Transpacific trade remains weak</li>
<li>Most carriers reported low (48% - 68%) but stable cargo load factors in August</li>
<li>For carriers, still lots of empty space to sell; macro view shows no "snap-back"</li>
</ul>


Despite a few pockets of improved demand, key Transpacific trade remains weak
Most carriers reported low (48% - 68%) but stable cargo load factors in August
For carriers, still lots of empty space to sell; macro view shows no "snap-back"


Monthly Air Cargo Tracker | August Shows Pockets of Growth | But LF, Pricing Both Still Very Weak

Japan

Japan Airlines Co. Ltd. provides air transportation services. The Company offers a variety of scheduled  flights and unscheduled flights throughout the world as well as offers air courier services. Japan Airlines also provides tickets, resort hotels, and travel agencies services.

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Japan Airlines (9201 JP)

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | December Outbound Pace Softer, but Domestic Activity Strengthened

The surprisingly strong upturn in Chinese outbound in October-November did not continue in December, unfortunately. But domestic air travel...

Tracking Traffic

US Customs & Border Protection Data: Northern Crossings Down, Western (Asian?) Air Crossings Firmer

US border crossing data from November 2025 shows weakness in travel activity in most regions and by most travel modes. But air crossings in the...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Sudden Upturn in Domestic and Outbound Demand (December 2025)

The pace of air travel growth improved markedly in the October-November period, despite weakness in two key outbound markets. Although it's a...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Pace of Growth Slowed, Again | Golden Week? | October 2025

Chinese travel activity in September slowed, and a first look at Golden Week activity also suggests weak growth in travel and spending. We see few...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Air Cargo Tracker | August Shows Pockets of Growth | But LF, Pricing Both Still Very Weak

August air cargo data from a range of carriers and cargo gateways around the Pacific Rim show uneven demand, but still-low utilization and weak...

Tracking Traffic

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