Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<p>In 2020, we have so far witnessed 15 follow-on JREIT offerings cumulatively raising JPY463bn (~US$4.5bn). This has been something of a weak year, understandable because of the covid-19 crisis which hit equity market and JREIT prices in March, and keeping them soft for months afterwards.</p>
<p>Historically, January and February are the busiest months, for a variety of reasons.</p>
<p>From 2015-2020, on average, there have been ~7 offerings from the top 40 JREITs announced within the first two months of the calendar year accounting for roughly a third of the total number of offerings in each year during that period. </p>
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Source: Quiddity, Capital IQ (Data)</div>
In this insight, we take a look at the prospective candidates who are most likely to launch follow-on equity offerings near-term, and we look at the performance characteristics of J-REIT follow-on offerings and the likelihood of profit from participating in the event.</section>

In 2020, we have so far witnessed 15 follow-on JREIT offerings cumulatively raising JPY463bn (~US$4.5bn). This has been something of a weak year, understandable because of the covid-19 crisis which hit equity market and JREIT prices in March, and keeping them soft for months afterwards.
Historically, January and February are the busiest months, for a variety of reasons.
From 2015-2020, on average, there have been ~7 offerings from the top 40 JREITs announced within the first two months of the calendar year accounting for roughly a third of the total number of offerings in each year during that period. 









Source: Quiddity, Capital IQ (Data)
In this insight, we take a look at the prospective candidates who are most likely to launch follow-on equity offerings near-term, and we look at the performance characteristics of J-REIT follow-on offerings and the likelihood of profit from participating in the event.

J-REIT Offering Primer: Get Ready for Offering Season 2021

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Japan Hotel Reit Investment / Technical Analysis

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-hotel-reit-investment" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:144:1" rel="noopener">Japan Hotel Reit Investment (8985 JP)</a> made a key low in March with noted accumulation volume continues its ascent toward 57k resistance. Trendline support stands out as the primary risk pivot where a break would induce a correction to get involved.</p><p>Trendline support stands out as the key chart focal point to maintain the current upward drive which will become extended on a minor new high. The macro trend remains bullish to buy weakness.</p><p>Buy volume in March/April is constructive as is the improving volume trend on the rise which concurs with a bull cycle.</p><p>We outline a tactical top zone near 55k (aligns with an overbought Nikkei posture near 23k) and pullback to briefly breach trendline support to fresh buy levels over the summer to offer a good risk to reward add or entry point for a drive to the 65k bull projection looking forward.</p>

Japan Hotel Reit Investment (8985 JP) made a key low in March with noted accumulation volume continues its ascent toward 57k resistance. Trendline support stands out as the primary risk pivot where a break would induce a correction to get involved.Trendline support stands out as the key chart focal point to maintain the current upward drive which will become extended on a minor new high. The macro trend remains bullish to buy weakness.Buy volume in March/April is constructive as is the improving volume trend on the rise which concurs with a bull cycle.We outline a tactical top zone near 55k (aligns with an overbought Nikkei posture near 23k) and pullback to briefly breach trendline support to fresh buy levels over the summer to offer a good risk to reward add or entry point for a drive to the 65k bull projection looking forward.

Japan Hotel REIT Stall Barrier and Pullback Buy Targets

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/123/994/original/2020-03-21_07-26-58.png?1584743238" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="123994"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>TAKE PROFITS</strong> - Japanese equities, as measured by the TOPIX Index, rose by 1.7% over the last week in Yen terms and fell by only 0.86% in US dollars, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-acwi-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24402:1" rel="noopener">ACWI (ACWI US)</a> fell by 13.6%. The 1% gain on Thursday was aided by the Bank of Japan US$1.8 billion purchase of ETFs which represented 4.3% of the value traded in TOPIX and is 80% of the average monthly total of such purchases over the last nine years. We expect the central bank to be in the market again at a similar level of commitment on Monday. We would use such generosity to now reduce exposure to Japan.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>In the<strong> DETAIL</strong> section below, we cover the outlook for a more prolonged Covid-19 bear market in Japan and suggest levels at which the market might offer some absolute value, hopefully within the next eighteen months.</p></div><blockquote><p><strong>If there is no market economy, then the stock market is in a sense largely irrelevant at this time, although we would not close it either since it does give people something to do that does generate some information and some amount of GDP and income - Andrew Hunt</strong></p></blockquote>

Source • Japan AnalyticsTAKE PROFITS - Japanese equities, as measured by the TOPIX Index, rose by 1.7% over the last week in Yen terms and fell by only 0.86% in US dollars, while ACWI (ACWI US) fell by 13.6%. The 1% gain on Thursday was aided by the Bank of Japan US$1.8 billion purchase of ETFs which represented 4.3% of the value traded in TOPIX and is 80% of the average monthly total of such purchases over the last nine years. We expect the central bank to be in the market again at a similar level of commitment on Monday. We would use such generosity to now reduce exposure to Japan.In the DETAIL section below, we cover the outlook for a more prolonged Covid-19 bear market in Japan and suggest levels at which the market might offer some absolute value, hopefully within the next eighteen months.If there is no market economy, then the stock market is in a sense largely irrelevant at this time, although we would not close it either since it does give people something to do that does generate some information and some amount of GDP and income - Andrew Hunt

🇯🇵 JAPAN MARKET UPDATE • Hit the BoJ Bid and Wait for the Absolute Value Opportunity

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Japan Hotel Reit Investment / Equity Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/144" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:144:1">Japan Hotel Reit Investment (8985 JP)</a> (JHR) plans to raise around US$300m/JPY33bn to part fund the acquisition of Hilton properties located in Tokyo and Osaka.</p>
<p>We have previously covered four other capital raising by JHR:</p>
<ul>
<li>US$170m in Jun 2017, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-hotel-reit-placement-an-accretive-acquisition-jgb-10y-yield-seems-stable" target="_blank">Japan Hotel REIT Placement - An Accretive Acquisition, JGB 10Y Yield Seems Stable</a>
</li>
<li>US$340m in July 2016, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-hotel-reit-yen-a-bigger-driver-than-the-acquisitions" target="_blank">Japan Hotel REIT - YEN a Bigger Driver than the Acquisitions</a>,</li>
<li>US$120m in Jan 2016, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-hotel-reit-acquisition-to-aid-dpu-growth-but-rmb-needs-to-hold-up-for-the-stock-to-perform" target="_blank">Japan Hotel REIT - Acquisition to Aid DPU Growth, but RMB Needs to Hold Up for the Stock to Perform</a>, and</li>
<li>US$230m in Jan 2015, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-hotel-reit-8985-jp-acquisition-to-aid-dpu-growth-take-the-deal" target="_blank">Japan Hotel REIT (8985 JP) - Acquisition to aid DPU growth; take the deal</a>
</li>
</ul>
<p>The prior-deals have given mixed bag results over the short-term. In this insight, we will run the deal through our framework and analyse past performance.</p>

Japan Hotel Reit Investment (8985 JP) (JHR) plans to raise around US$300m/JPY33bn to part fund the acquisition of Hilton properties located in Tokyo and Osaka.
We have previously covered four other capital raising by JHR:

US$170m in Jun 2017, Japan Hotel REIT Placement - An Accretive Acquisition, JGB 10Y Yield Seems Stable

US$340m in July 2016, Japan Hotel REIT - YEN a Bigger Driver than the Acquisitions,
US$120m in Jan 2016, Japan Hotel REIT - Acquisition to Aid DPU Growth, but RMB Needs to Hold Up for the Stock to Perform, and
US$230m in Jan 2015, Japan Hotel REIT (8985 JP) - Acquisition to aid DPU growth; take the deal


The prior-deals have given mixed bag results over the short-term. In this insight, we will run the deal through our framework and analyse past performance.

Japan Hotel REIT Placement - Biggish Acquisition, Smallish Accretion

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

<p>Our outlook remains neutral for global ex-U.S. markets while horizontal consolidation continues on the MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. index.  In today’s report we take a bottoms-up view on developed ex-U.S. equities, highlighting stocks that present attractive buy opportunities <em>within the Services, Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Energy, and Financials Sectors.</em></p>

Our outlook remains neutral for global ex-U.S. markets while horizontal consolidation continues on the MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. index.  In today’s report we take a bottoms-up view on developed ex-U.S. equities, highlighting stocks that present attractive buy opportunities within the Services, Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Energy, and Financials Sectors.

Bottoms-Up View on Developed Markets: Actionable Stocks

Japan

Japan Hotel REIT Investment Corporation is a real estate investment trust(REIT) which invests in securitized real estate products. The Company mainly invests in real estate properties used in hotels.

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Japan Hotel Reit Investment (8985 JP)

J-REIT Offering Primer: Get Ready for Offering Season 2021

JREIT Follow-On Offerings - A Primer: January and February are the busiest times of the year for a variety of reasons and there are multiple...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Japan Hotel REIT Stall Barrier and Pullback Buy Targets

Japan Hotel Reit Investment (8985 JP) made a key low in March with noted accumulation volume continues its ascent toward 57k resistance. Trendline...

Thomas Schroeder

🇯🇵 JAPAN MARKET UPDATE • Hit the BoJ Bid and Wait for the Absolute Value Opportunity

TAKE PROFITS - Japanese equities, as measured by the TOPIX Index, rose by 1.7% over the last week in Yen terms and fell by only 0.86% in US...

Campbell Gunn

Japan Hotel REIT Placement - Biggish Acquisition, Smallish Accretion

Japan Hotel Reit Investment (8985 JP) (JHR) plans to raise around US$300m/JPY33bn to part fund the acquisition of Hilton properties located in...

Sumeet Singh

Bottoms-Up View on Developed Markets: Actionable Stocks

Our outlook remains neutral for global ex-U.S. markets while horizontal consolidation continues on the MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. index. In today’s report...

Vermilion Research

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