Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A year ago I wrote that same headline as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/inpex-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20665:1" rel="noopener">Inpex Corp (1605 JP)</a> reported H1 results, a change in forecasts, and a bigly buyback.</li>
<li>Yesterday, Inpex reported FY2023 H1 results, a change in forecasts, and a bigly buyback. </li>
<li>The mechanics are the same. The impact is a bit different, but it is worth looking at. Then there is the event on 28 February 2024.</li>
</ul>


A year ago I wrote that same headline as Inpex Corp (1605 JP) reported H1 results, a change in forecasts, and a bigly buyback.
Yesterday, Inpex reported FY2023 H1 results, a change in forecasts, and a bigly buyback. 
The mechanics are the same. The impact is a bit different, but it is worth looking at. Then there is the event on 28 February 2024.


Inpex (1605 JP) - Earnings, Forecasts and a BIGLY Buyback (Aug 2023 Version)

Japan Petroleum Exploration / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Japanese companies are buying back more stock than ever before, and recent moves by the TSE and METI are effectively pushing for more.</li>
<li>The new goal is to lift PBR and ROE. The easiest way to lift ROE is reduce E. Low-PBR Cos with excess assets and cross-holdings (outbound and inbound) are targets.</li>
<li>In this insight I look at several possible rankings for potential large buyback targets.</li>
</ul>


Japanese companies are buying back more stock than ever before, and recent moves by the TSE and METI are effectively pushing for more.
The new goal is to lift PBR and ROE. The easiest way to lift ROE is reduce E. Low-PBR Cos with excess assets and cross-holdings (outbound and inbound) are targets.
In this insight I look at several possible rankings for potential large buyback targets.


JAPAN GOVERNANCE CHANGES II - Who Could Surprise on Buybacks? Quant Rankings

<ul>
<li>Today <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/inpex-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20665:1" rel="noopener">Inpex Corp (1605 JP)</a> announced Q2 earnings (<a href="https://www.inpex.co.jp/english/ir/library/pdf/result/e-result20220808.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">results</a>, <a href="https://www.inpex.co.jp/english/ir/pdf/e20220808_c.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">presentation</a>), a revised <a href="https://www.inpex.co.jp/english/news/assets/pdf/20220808.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">full-year forecast</a> due to higher crude and lower yen, an 11%-above-guidance dividend, and a big buyback.</li>
<li>The buyback is for up to 120mm shares spending up to ¥120bn, to run through year-end. Practically speaking, it is limited to 80mm shares or so at current price. </li>
<li>This should be a non-negligible portion of Real World Float, and I expect the buyback to have impact over the next five months.</li>
</ul>


Today Inpex Corp (1605 JP) announced Q2 earnings (results, presentation), a revised full-year forecast due to higher crude and lower yen, an 11%-above-guidance dividend, and a big buyback.
The buyback is for up to 120mm shares spending up to ¥120bn, to run through year-end. Practically speaking, it is limited to 80mm shares or so at current price. 
This should be a non-negligible portion of Real World Float, and I expect the buyback to have impact over the next five months.


Inpex (1605 JP) - Earnings, Forecasts and a BIGLY Buyback

When the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/inpex-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20665:1" rel="noopener">Inpex Corp (1605 JP)</a> buyback programme was announced last Friday, and the ToSTNeT-3 buyback was announced with the footnote that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-petroleum-exploration" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12219:1" rel="noopener">Japan Petroleum Exploration (1662 JP)</a> intended to sell shares to the tune of ¥50bn, I wrote about the outlook post ToSTNeT-3 buyback for both companies in...<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/inpex-buyback-offers-2-opportunities-inpex-1605-jp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:60204" rel="noopener">INPEX Buyback Offers 2 Opportunities - INPEX (1605 JP)</a> and</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/inpex-buyback-offers-2-opportunities-japex-1662-jp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:60225" rel="noopener">INPEX Buyback Offers 2 Opportunities - JAPEX (1662 JP)</a> </li>
</ul>In the piece on JAPEX, I noted that the combination of higher oil prices since the August announcement of expected losses this year, the price of crude and natgas was higher so the actual losses would likely be lower than forecast, and the sale of half JAPEX' stake in INPEX would lead to a near-record amount of excess non-operating capital (net cash+securities, etc) against a sharp reduction in cash burn at its Canadian units, which were to be sold. I recommended buying JAPEX suggesting the best way to apply that cash was a buyback. After the INPEX buyback, JAPEX <a href="https://www.japex.co.jp/uploads/pdf/JAPEX20211108_INPEXStocksTrade_e.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> that the sale of INPEX shares would mean booking extraordinary income of JPY 39.8bn. This was to be expected. Yesterday, JAPEX announced H1 results, with...<ul>
<li>H1 OP at ¥9.54bn against the 10 August full year estimate at ¥11.9bn.</li>
<li>H1 Ordinary Profit (including equity affiliate income) at ¥19.35bn vs full-year estimate on 10 August of ¥26.16bn. </li>
<li>H1 Net Profit of -¥119.7bn vs full-year estimate of -¥114.0bn. This was expected because the full hit of securities sales losses (selling JACOS, etc), writedowns, and additional contingent liabilities on debt guarantees associated with the asset sales) would hit in H1, whereas H2 would see additional profit.</li>
</ul>Higher crude and gas prices and slightly higher USD/yen helped, and the company upped its full-year forecast for OP (up another 40%) and Ordinary Profit (up another 9%) yet again. With crude at current levels or hedge-able levels, those two numbers are light. The company also raised its net profit estimate for the full year to March 2022 from -¥114bn to -¥69.8bn, adding ¥44bn compared to the ¥39.8bn extraordinary gain (pre-tax) from the INPEX sale. JAPEX also announced a buyback. Bingo.More below the fold.

When the Inpex Corp (1605 JP) buyback programme was announced last Friday, and the ToSTNeT-3 buyback was announced with the footnote that Japan Petroleum Exploration (1662 JP) intended to sell shares to the tune of ¥50bn, I wrote about the outlook post ToSTNeT-3 buyback for both companies in...

INPEX Buyback Offers 2 Opportunities - INPEX (1605 JP) and

INPEX Buyback Offers 2 Opportunities - JAPEX (1662 JP) 
In the piece on JAPEX, I noted that the combination of higher oil prices since the August announcement of expected losses this year, the price of crude and natgas was higher so the actual losses would likely be lower than forecast, and the sale of half JAPEX' stake in INPEX would lead to a near-record amount of excess non-operating capital (net cash+securities, etc) against a sharp reduction in cash burn at its Canadian units, which were to be sold. I recommended buying JAPEX suggesting the best way to apply that cash was a buyback. After the INPEX buyback, JAPEX announced that the sale of INPEX shares would mean booking extraordinary income of JPY 39.8bn. This was to be expected. Yesterday, JAPEX announced H1 results, with...
H1 OP at ¥9.54bn against the 10 August full year estimate at ¥11.9bn.
H1 Ordinary Profit (including equity affiliate income) at ¥19.35bn vs full-year estimate on 10 August of ¥26.16bn. 
H1 Net Profit of -¥119.7bn vs full-year estimate of -¥114.0bn. This was expected because the full hit of securities sales losses (selling JACOS, etc), writedowns, and additional contingent liabilities on debt guarantees associated with the asset sales) would hit in H1, whereas H2 would see additional profit.
Higher crude and gas prices and slightly higher USD/yen helped, and the company upped its full-year forecast for OP (up another 40%) and Ordinary Profit (up another 9%) yet again. With crude at current levels or hedge-able levels, those two numbers are light. The company also raised its net profit estimate for the full year to March 2022 from -¥114bn to -¥69.8bn, adding ¥44bn compared to the ¥39.8bn extraordinary gain (pre-tax) from the INPEX sale. JAPEX also announced a buyback. Bingo.More below the fold.

On Friday, as discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/inpex-buyback-offers-2-opportunities-inpex-1605-jp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:60204" rel="noopener">INPEX Buyback Offers 2 Opportunities - INPEX (1605 JP)</a>, INPEX announced decent earnings and a buyback. A large chunk of that buyback comes Monday morning on 8 November. The announcement of the buyback is split into the <a href="https://www.inpex.co.jp/english/news/assets/pdf/20211105.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">programme announcement</a> (up to 80mm shares (5.48%), up to ¥70bn between now and end-January and the <a href="https://www.inpex.co.jp/english/news/assets/pdf/20211105_d.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ToSTNeT-3 buyback announcement</a> (53.447mm shares at ¥946/share on Monday morning).The last line of that announcement indicated that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/inpex-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20665:1" rel="noopener">Inpex Corp (1605 JP)</a> had received notice from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-petroleum-exploration" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12219:1" rel="noopener">Japan Petroleum Exploration (1662 JP)</a> - longtime second-largest shareholder - that JAPEX "has the intention to sell a portion of the INPEX shares that it holds." Conveniently, 53.447mm shares is exactly half what JAPEX holds, or 3.65% of shares out. This is not huge, but for long-time observers of JAPEX, it represents an interesting development. More below.

On Friday, as discussed in INPEX Buyback Offers 2 Opportunities - INPEX (1605 JP), INPEX announced decent earnings and a buyback. A large chunk of that buyback comes Monday morning on 8 November. The announcement of the buyback is split into the programme announcement (up to 80mm shares (5.48%), up to ¥70bn between now and end-January and the ToSTNeT-3 buyback announcement (53.447mm shares at ¥946/share on Monday morning).The last line of that announcement indicated that Inpex Corp (1605 JP) had received notice from Japan Petroleum Exploration (1662 JP) - longtime second-largest shareholder - that JAPEX "has the intention to sell a portion of the INPEX shares that it holds." Conveniently, 53.447mm shares is exactly half what JAPEX holds, or 3.65% of shares out. This is not huge, but for long-time observers of JAPEX, it represents an interesting development. More below. 

INPEX Buyback Offers 2 Opportunities - JAPEX (1662 JP)

Japan

Japan Petroleum Exploration Co., Ltd. explores, develops, and markets petroleum products such as crude oil and natural gas.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Japan Petroleum Exploration (1662 JP)

Inpex (1605 JP) - Earnings, Forecasts and a BIGLY Buyback (Aug 2023 Version)

Inpex announced earnings and, revised its forecast upwards (for the second time this fiscal year), and announced a buyback. The buyback is big...

Travis Lundy

JAPAN GOVERNANCE CHANGES II - Who Could Surprise on Buybacks? Quant Rankings

JAPAN GOVERNANCE: There is a buyback story coming. It will be big. Bigger than the past year or two, and it will continue. What to buy?

Travis Lundy

Inpex (1605 JP) - Earnings, Forecasts and a BIGLY Buyback

inpex (1605) has announced earnings (as expected), revised guidance (still light), a div hike (nice) and a big buyback. Language suggests it will...

Travis Lundy

JAPEX Profit and BUYBACK - More To Go

JAPEX sold INPEX shares, raised forecasts, and announced its own buyback. What is not to like? There is a fair bit more to go here.

Travis Lundy

INPEX Buyback Offers 2 Opportunities - JAPEX (1662 JP)

INPEX will buy back 53+mm shares Monday AM in a ToSTNeT-3 deal. JAPEX (1662) will likely sell all of those. JAPEX reports 10 Nov and should clarify...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)