Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Japan Petroleum Exploration / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-petroleum-exploration" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12219:1" rel="noopener">Japan Petroleum Exploration (1662 JP)</a> is coming up "cheap" versus <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/inpex-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20665:1" rel="noopener">Inpex Corp (1605 JP)</a> on my monitor; however this Holdco relationship is becoming less meaningful.</li>
<li>Preceding my comments on JAPEX and Inpex are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>



Japan Petroleum Exploration (1662 JP) is coming up "cheap" versus Inpex Corp (1605 JP) on my monitor; however this Holdco relationship is becoming less meaningful.
Preceding my comments on JAPEX and Inpex are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: JAPEX (1662 JP) & Inpex (1605 JP)

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

Japan Petroleum Exploration / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>JAPEX buys Verdad for USD 1.3bn, gaining operated DJ Basin oil exposure and shifting away from LNG-style earnings.</li>
<li>FY27 operating profit uplift is ~¥14–20bn depending on WTI vs ¥35bn FY26 base.</li>
<li>Strong balance sheet and +11–12% stock reaction support a valuation re-rating toward 3.5–4.0× EBITDA.</li>
</ul>


JAPEX buys Verdad for USD 1.3bn, gaining operated DJ Basin oil exposure and shifting away from LNG-style earnings.
FY27 operating profit uplift is ~¥14–20bn depending on WTI vs ¥35bn FY26 base.
Strong balance sheet and +11–12% stock reaction support a valuation re-rating toward 3.5–4.0× EBITDA.


JAPEX (1662 JP): U.S. Tight-Oil Pivot Drives Earnings Reset and Re-Rating Potential

<ul>
<li>It's a weak stub. And given <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/inpex-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20665:1" rel="noopener">Inpex Corp (1605 JP)</a>'s direct upstream ops amid high crude oil prices, I'd be disinclined to short the company here against <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-petroleum-exploration" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12219:1" rel="noopener">JAPEX (1662 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Keswick chips away at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson (JM SP)</a>'s minorities via scrip dividends and buybacks; as JMH completes the  US$2.4bn i-Med acquisition. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-southeast-asia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:347:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson Southeast Asia (JCNC SP)</a> (formerly known as Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage), popped ~10% ahead of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> in-specie-distribution and special dividend.</li>
</ul>


It's a weak stub. And given Inpex Corp (1605 JP)'s direct upstream ops amid high crude oil prices, I'd be disinclined to short the company here against JAPEX (1662 JP).
Keswick chips away at Jardine Matheson (JM SP)'s minorities via scrip dividends and buybacks; as JMH completes the  US$2.4bn i-Med acquisition. 

Jardine Matheson Southeast Asia (JCNC SP) (formerly known as Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage), popped ~10% ahead of the Toyota Motor (7203 JP) in-specie-distribution and special dividend.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Inpex, Jardine Matheson, Jardine Matheson Southeast Asia, Genting

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Watch refiners, shippers, and heavies for upside vs weakness for airlines and companies with shipping exposure to EU.</li>
<li>This rotation could be short lived given the very one-sided outcome of the conflict so far, so expect volatility.</li>
<li>Precious metals and oil are already starting to pare early gains this morning which may be indicative of the longevity of some of these moves.</li>
</ul>


Watch refiners, shippers, and heavies for upside vs weakness for airlines and companies with shipping exposure to EU.
This rotation could be short lived given the very one-sided outcome of the conflict so far, so expect volatility.
Precious metals and oil are already starting to pare early gains this morning which may be indicative of the longevity of some of these moves.


Japan Morning Connection: Japan Set for Short-Term Rotation Away from Tech After Attacks on Iran

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

<ul>
<li>Oil’s positive reaction to bearish news was a signal to go long.</li>
<li>Regardless of the outcome of the current fighting between Israel and Iran, oil has likely bottomed.</li>
<li>We add oil and related equities to the inflation basket</li>
</ul>


Oil’s positive reaction to bearish news was a signal to go long.
Regardless of the outcome of the current fighting between Israel and Iran, oil has likely bottomed.
We add oil and related equities to the inflation basket


Tactical Trading -Oil Joins the Commodity Rally

Japan

Japan Petroleum Exploration Co., Ltd. explores, develops, and markets petroleum products such as crude oil and natural gas.

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Japan Petroleum Exploration (1662 JP)

StubWorld: JAPEX (1662 JP) & Inpex (1605 JP)

I like JAPEX's defensive midstream ops here; although it's not a strong conviction trade. Given Inpex's direct upstream ops amid high crude oil...

David Blennerhassett

JAPEX (1662 JP): U.S. Tight-Oil Pivot Drives Earnings Reset and Re-Rating Potential

JAPEX acquires Verdad for $1.3bn, boosting DJ Basin oil exposure and diversifying earnings away from LNG. Operating profit expected to increase in...

Rahul Jain

Last Week In Event SPACE: Inpex, Jardine Matheson, Jardine Matheson Southeast Asia, Genting

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Japan Morning Connection: Japan Set for Short-Term Rotation Away from Tech After Attacks on Iran

Expect a fairly sharp rotation away from tech and AI into defense and defensives names in Japan today. JP defense names are all trading close to...

Andrew Jackson

Tactical Trading -Oil Joins the Commodity Rally

Oil joins the commodity rally and has likely bottommed regardless of the outcome in the current Israel/Iran fighting. OIl related equities are now...

Rikki Malik

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

StubWorld: JAPEX (1662 JP) & Inpex (1605 JP)

I like JAPEX's defensive midstream ops here; although it's not a strong conviction trade. Given Inpex's direct upstream ops amid high crude oil...

David Blennerhassett

JAPEX (1662 JP): U.S. Tight-Oil Pivot Drives Earnings Reset and Re-Rating Potential

​JAPEX acquires Verdad for $1.3bn, boosting DJ Basin oil exposure and diversifying earnings away from LNG. Operating profit expected to increase in...

Rahul Jain

Last Week In Event SPACE: Inpex, Jardine Matheson, Jardine Matheson Southeast Asia, Genting

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Japan Morning Connection: Japan Set for Short-Term Rotation Away from Tech After Attacks on Iran

Expect a fairly sharp rotation away from tech and AI into defense and defensives names in Japan today. JP defense names are all trading close to...

Andrew Jackson

Tactical Trading -Oil Joins the Commodity Rally

Oil joins the commodity rally and has likely bottommed regardless of the outcome in the current Israel/Iran fighting. OIl related equities are now...

Rikki Malik

JAPEX acquires Verdad for $1.3bn, boosting DJ Basin oil exposure and diversifying earnings away from LNG. Operating profit expected to increase in...