Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>There is very high delta in 30-year JGB yields in the recent month, and preceding periods</li>
<li>This is very much unlike what we see with the 1-year JGBs, different implications.</li>
<li>Insurance companies are the major holders of long-dated JGBs where banks have low duration on their bond holdings.</li>
</ul>


There is very high delta in 30-year JGB yields in the recent month, and preceding periods
This is very much unlike what we see with the 1-year JGBs, different implications.
Insurance companies are the major holders of long-dated JGBs where banks have low duration on their bond holdings.


Japan - Sharply Higher Long-Dated JGBs Should Mean Sizable Valuation Losses at Insurers, Not Banks

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Does the underperformance since the recent results announcement provide an opportunity?</li>
<li>While the company strategy is moving in the right direction, the pace of change is slow.</li>
<li>With ownership of Japan Post Bank reduced to below 50%, there is potential change afoot there</li>
</ul>


Does the underperformance since the recent results announcement provide an opportunity?
While the company strategy is moving in the right direction, the pace of change is slow.
With ownership of Japan Post Bank reduced to below 50%, there is potential change afoot there


Japan Post Holdings – Waiting for Godot...

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16063:1" rel="noopener">Seven Bank Ltd (8410 JP)</a> has been the ugly duckling of Japan e-banks since it got competition in the form of Rakuten Bank (5838) and SBI Sumishin (7163).</li>
<li>Last year, it was posited, and then confirmed, that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a> wanted to sell down to de-consolidate. NTT Docomo wanted to buy a bank. </li>
<li>I thought it a good match but no deal has been done. So now we get a different deal - it's weird for Itochu, but bodes well for Seven Bank</li>
</ul>



Seven Bank Ltd (8410 JP) has been the ugly duckling of Japan e-banks since it got competition in the form of Rakuten Bank (5838) and SBI Sumishin (7163).
Last year, it was posited, and then confirmed, that Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP) wanted to sell down to de-consolidate. NTT Docomo wanted to buy a bank. 
I thought it a good match but no deal has been done. So now we get a different deal - it's weird for Itochu, but bodes well for Seven Bank


[Japan M&A] Seven Bank (8410) - Seven & I Selldown, Itochu Buy-In, Not on My Bingo Card But Not Bad

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gmo-internet-inc-919fd60b-ad2a-4c5f-b333-167a849b67b0" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9029:1" rel="noopener">GMO Internet (4784 JP)</a> has announced a secondary offering of 91.7 million shares, worth around US$1.9 billion.</li>
<li>The selling shareholder is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gmo-internet-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13631:1" rel="noopener">GMO Internet Group (9449 JP)</a>. The secondary offering aims to increase the tradable share ratio to satisfy the TSE Prime Market's continued listing criteria.</li>
<li>The offering represents 239.4 days of the 1-year ADV, the highest compared to the recent large Japanese placements. Pricing is likely to be on 5 June.</li>
</ul>



GMO Internet (4784 JP) has announced a secondary offering of 91.7 million shares, worth around US$1.9 billion.
The selling shareholder is GMO Internet Group (9449 JP). The secondary offering aims to increase the tradable share ratio to satisfy the TSE Prime Market's continued listing criteria.
The offering represents 239.4 days of the 1-year ADV, the highest compared to the recent large Japanese placements. Pricing is likely to be on 5 June.


GMO Internet (4784 JP): A Huge US$1.9 Billion Secondary Offering

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genda-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39911:1" rel="noopener">GENDA (9166 JP),</a> along with a selling shareholder, is looking to raise around US$190m to partly fund its M&amp;A.</li>
<li>Genda develops and operates amusement facilities in Japan, primarily operating under its Genda GiGO Entertainment subsidiary.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



GENDA (9166 JP), along with a selling shareholder, is looking to raise around US$190m to partly fund its M&amp;A.
Genda develops and operates amusement facilities in Japan, primarily operating under its Genda GiGO Entertainment subsidiary.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.


GENDA Placement - Good Track Record & Sort off Well Flagged but Relatively Large

Japan

Japan Post Bank Co. Ltd. provides general banking services. The Company offers deposits, savings, loans, currency exchange transactions, investment trusts, national bonds, and other related banking services to individuals and businesses. Japan Post Bank also provides other financial services such as insurance agency and financing service.

Price Gauge
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Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)

Japan - Sharply Higher Long-Dated JGBs Should Mean Sizable Valuation Losses at Insurers, Not Banks

Japan's insurance companies are more exposed and highly exposed to rising long-dated JGB yields, unlike for banks. The former will have more...

Daniel Tabbush

Japan Post Holdings – Waiting for Godot...

Underperformance post-results announcement may present opportunity as strategy shifts slowly and ownership of Japan Post Bank changes hands.

Rikki Malik

[Japan M&A] Seven Bank (8410) - Seven & I Selldown, Itochu Buy-In, Not on My Bingo Card But Not Bad

Seven & i appears to be en route to selling a stake in Seven Bank to Itochu. I don't see the benefit to Itochu but it's good for Seven Bank,...

Travis Lundy

GMO Internet (4784 JP): A Huge US$1.9 Billion Secondary Offering

The offering is enormous, representing 239.4 days of the 1-year ADV, the highest compared to the recent large Japanese placements. Along with a...

Arun George

GENDA Placement - Good Track Record & Sort off Well Flagged but Relatively Large

GENDA (9166 JP), along with a selling shareholder, is looking to raise around US$190m to partly fund its M&A. In this note, we talk about the deal...

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan - Sharply Higher Long-Dated JGBs Should Mean Sizable Valuation Losses at Insurers, Not Banks

Japan's insurance companies are more exposed and highly exposed to rising long-dated JGB yields, unlike for banks. The former will have more...

Daniel Tabbush

Japan Post Holdings – Waiting for Godot...

​Underperformance post-results announcement may present opportunity as strategy shifts slowly and ownership of Japan Post Bank changes hands.

Rikki Malik

[Japan M&A] Seven Bank (8410) - Seven & I Selldown, Itochu Buy-In, Not on My Bingo Card But Not Bad

Seven & i appears to be en route to selling a stake in Seven Bank to Itochu. I don't see the benefit to Itochu but it's good for Seven Bank,...

Travis Lundy

GMO Internet (4784 JP): A Huge US$1.9 Billion Secondary Offering

The offering is enormous, representing 239.4 days of the 1-year ADV, the highest compared to the recent large Japanese placements. Along with a...

Arun George

GENDA Placement - Good Track Record & Sort off Well Flagged but Relatively Large

GENDA (9166 JP), along with a selling shareholder, is looking to raise around US$190m to partly fund its M&A. In this note, we talk about the deal...

Sumeet Singh

Underperformance post-results announcement may present opportunity as strategy shifts slowly and ownership of Japan Post Bank changes hands.