External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Post-COVID earnings swings and low FCF-to-EBITDA conversion have led to valuation de-rating despite JSMR’s dominant market share.</li><li>We view JSMR’s sustainable re-rating case will hinge on its capital discipline to improve FCF amid capex growth normalizing vs. FY14-24.</li><li>We resume our coverage with a Buy rating and Rp4,750 DCF-based TP, as JSMR is still trading at ~23% discount vs. its historical EV/EBITDA.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Post-COVID earnings swings and low FCF-to-EBITDA conversion have led to valuation de-rating despite JSMR’s dominant market share.We view JSMR’s sustainable re-rating case will hinge on its capital discipline to improve FCF amid capex growth normalizing vs. FY14-24.We resume our coverage with a Buy rating and Rp4,750 DCF-based TP, as JSMR is still trading at ~23% discount vs. its historical EV/EBITDA.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Jasa Marga (JSMR.IJ) - Attractive Valuation, But Further Re-Rating Hinges on Capex Execution.

<ul><li>We expect toll road revenue to grow by 9%/10% in FY25F/FY26F, driven by traffic growth of 1.6%/2.3% yoy, and fewer special tariff adjustments.</li><li>We expect higher capex (~Rp11tr/yr) in FY25F-FY26F, yet leverage will remain at ~1x net DER; expect interest exp. to increase in FY26F. </li><li>Market has not appreciated JSMR’s healthier balance sheet (~1x net DER) post-JTT divestment. Reiterate Buy rating with a TP of Rp5,900.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We expect toll road revenue to grow by 9%/10% in FY25F/FY26F, driven by traffic growth of 1.6%/2.3% yoy, and fewer special tariff adjustments.We expect higher capex (~Rp11tr/yr) in FY25F-FY26F, yet leverage will remain at ~1x net DER; expect interest exp. to increase in FY26F. Market has not appreciated JSMR’s healthier balance sheet (~1x net DER) post-JTT divestment. Reiterate Buy rating with a TP of Rp5,900.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Jasa Marga (JSMR.IJ) Normalization of Revenue Growth...

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/first-pacific-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:173:1" rel="noopener">First Pacific Co (142 HK)</a> is a Southeast Asian conglomerate that has been handicapped by its listing in the Hong Kong market over the last several years.</li>
<li>As Southeast Asian markets (Indonesia and Philippines) begin to re-rate on the back of a more accommodating Fed policy, First Pacific is beginning to participate in the uptrend.</li>
<li>Metro Pacific Investments Corp (MPIC), the second largest piece of the company's NAV has been active in acquiring more infrastructure assets since being privatized last year.</li>
</ul>



First Pacific Co (142 HK) is a Southeast Asian conglomerate that has been handicapped by its listing in the Hong Kong market over the last several years.
As Southeast Asian markets (Indonesia and Philippines) begin to re-rate on the back of a more accommodating Fed policy, First Pacific is beginning to participate in the uptrend.
Metro Pacific Investments Corp (MPIC), the second largest piece of the company's NAV has been active in acquiring more infrastructure assets since being privatized last year.


BUY: First Pacific Company (142 HK): Right Stock Trapped in the Wrong Market

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Amman Mineral Internasional / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There is 1 constituent change for the LQ45 Index and 2 constituent changes for the IDX80 Index at the rebalance to be implemented at the close on 31 July.</li>
<li>The largest passive inflows are expected in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amman-mineral-internasional-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39838:1" rel="noopener">Amman Mineral Internasional (AMMN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:441:1" rel="noopener">Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jasa-marga-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12747:1" rel="noopener">Jasa Marga (Persero) (JSMR)</a>. </li>
<li>The adds have moved higher over the recent past and are near their highs while the deletes have dropped over the last few years and are trading near their lows.</li>
</ul>


There is 1 constituent change for the LQ45 Index and 2 constituent changes for the IDX80 Index at the rebalance to be implemented at the close on 31 July.
The largest passive inflows are expected in Amman Mineral Internasional (AMMN), Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI), Bank Central Asia (BBCA), Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI) and Jasa Marga (Persero) (JSMR). 
The adds have moved higher over the recent past and are near their highs while the deletes have dropped over the last few years and are trading near their lows.


IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Constituent, Float & Capping Changes

<ul>
<li>The review period for the LQ45 Index July rebalance ended 30 June. The changes should be announced the last week of July, becoming effective after the close on 31 July.</li>
<li>Based on the index methodology, there could be up to 5 changes at the rebalance. Plus there will be capping changes for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat (BBRI)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA)</a>.</li>
<li>For a change, the impact on the potential inclusions will be higher since they will join the index with higher weights compared to the potential deletions.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the LQ45 Index July rebalance ended 30 June. The changes should be announced the last week of July, becoming effective after the close on 31 July.
Based on the index methodology, there could be up to 5 changes at the rebalance. Plus there will be capping changes for Bank Rakyat (BBRI) and Bank Central Asia (BBCA).
For a change, the impact on the potential inclusions will be higher since they will join the index with higher weights compared to the potential deletions.


LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (July): Identifying Potential Index Changes

Indonesia

PT Jasa Marga Persero Tbk operates the Indonesian highway system.  The Company collects tolls, maintains the road surfaces, and offers towing and ambulance services.

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Jasa Marga (Persero) (JSMR IJ)

Jasa Marga (JSMR.IJ) - Attractive Valuation, But Further Re-Rating Hinges on Capex Execution.

Post-COVID earnings swings and low FCF-to-EBITDA conversion have led to valuation de-rating despite JSMR’s dominant market share.

BRI Danareksa Research

Jasa Marga (JSMR.IJ) Normalization of Revenue Growth...

We expect toll road revenue to grow by 9%/10% in FY25F/FY26F, driven by traffic growth of 1.6%/2.3% yoy, and fewer special tariff adjustments.

BRI Danareksa Research

BUY: First Pacific Company (142 HK): Right Stock Trapped in the Wrong Market

Since our insight on 1st Pac last Sept., the stock has gained 33%. Company had solid 2024 results. MPIC, the undervalued Phil./Indonesia...

David Mudd

IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Constituent, Float & Capping Changes

There is 1 change for the LQ45 index and 2 changes for the IDX80 index. Plus there are float and capping changes. The adds have traded higher while...

Brian Freitas

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (July): Identifying Potential Index Changes

We have identified 5 potential changes for the LQ45 Index in July. There will also be capping flows for BBCA and BBRI. Historically, adds and...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Jasa Marga (JSMR.IJ) - Attractive Valuation, But Further Re-Rating Hinges on Capex Execution.

Post-COVID earnings swings and low FCF-to-EBITDA conversion have led to valuation de-rating despite JSMR’s dominant market share.

BRI Danareksa Research

Jasa Marga (JSMR.IJ) Normalization of Revenue Growth...

We expect toll road revenue to grow by 9%/10% in FY25F/FY26F, driven by traffic growth of 1.6%/2.3% yoy, and fewer special tariff adjustments.

BRI Danareksa Research

BUY: First Pacific Company (142 HK): Right Stock Trapped in the Wrong Market

Since our insight on 1st Pac last Sept., the stock has gained 33%. Company had solid 2024 results. MPIC, the undervalued Phil./Indonesia...

David Mudd

IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Constituent, Float & Capping Changes

There is 1 change for the LQ45 index and 2 changes for the IDX80 index. Plus there are float and capping changes. The adds have traded higher while...

Brian Freitas

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (July): Identifying Potential Index Changes

We have identified 5 potential changes for the LQ45 Index in July. There will also be capping flows for BBCA and BBRI. Historically, adds and...

Brian Freitas

IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Constituent, Float & Capping Changes