Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gudang-garam-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:722:1" rel="noopener">Gudang Garam (GGRM IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitra-adiperkasa-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18684:1" rel="noopener">Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/timah-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11174:1" rel="noopener">Timah Persero (TINS IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japfa-comfeed-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8258:1" rel="noopener">Japfa Comfeed Indonesia (JPFA IJ)</a> in the LQ45 Index next week.</li>
<li>There are some large changes to free float plus capping changes for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ)</a>. </li>
<li>There could be jumps in the stocks of the adds/deletes today, though there should be pre-positioning and a potential reversal later in the week.</li>
</ul>



Gudang Garam (GGRM IJ) and Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) will replace Timah Persero (TINS IJ) and Japfa Comfeed Indonesia (JPFA IJ) in the LQ45 Index next week.
There are some large changes to free float plus capping changes for Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) and Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ). 
There could be jumps in the stocks of the adds/deletes today, though there should be pre-positioning and a potential reversal later in the week.


​​​LQ45 Index Rebalance: Two Changes in a Few Days

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Glimpse of RecoveryThere were some encouraging signs of brisker economic activity in May, with higher loans growth of 9.4% (vs April 8.1%) and M2 Money Supply growth of 6.6% (vs April 5.5%)</li><li>A lower fiscal surplus in May also indicated higher government spending activity</li><li>We anticipate improvements in the banking sector's intermediary function, supported by ample liquidity and favourable rates</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Glimpse of RecoveryThere were some encouraging signs of brisker economic activity in May, with higher loans growth of 9.4% (vs April 8.1%) and M2 Money Supply growth of 6.6% (vs April 5.5%)A lower fiscal surplus in May also indicated higher government spending activityWe anticipate improvements in the banking sector's intermediary function, supported by ample liquidity and favourable ratesContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Macro and Flows Tracker - Glimpse of Recovery

Bumi Resources Minerals Tbk / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The review period for the LQ45 Index ends on 30 June. The changes should be announced in the last week of July, becoming effective after the close on 31 July.</li>
<li>Potential adds are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adaro-minerals" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35927:1" rel="noopener">Adaro Minerals (ADMR IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bumi-resources-minerals-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9136:1" rel="noopener">Bumi Resources Minerals (BRMS IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/panin-financial-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19472:1" rel="noopener">Panin Financial (PNLF IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/energi-mega-persada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17534:1" rel="noopener">Energi Mega Persada (ENRG IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/transcoal-pacific-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28449:1" rel="noopener">Transcoal Pacific (TCPI IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pertamina-geothermal-energy-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36725:1" rel="noopener">Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGEO)</a>.</li>
<li>Potential deletions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japfa-comfeed-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8258:1" rel="noopener">Japfa Comfeed Indonesia (JPFA IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indocement-tunggal-prakarsa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4040:1" rel="noopener">Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/timah-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11174:1" rel="noopener">Timah Persero (TINS IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-tabungan-negara-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:731:1" rel="noopener">Bank Tabungan Negara Persero (BBTN IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chandra-asri-petrochemical" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2556:1" rel="noopener">Chandra Asri Petrochemical (TPIA IJ)</a>. </li>
</ul>


The review period for the LQ45 Index ends on 30 June. The changes should be announced in the last week of July, becoming effective after the close on 31 July.
Potential adds are Adaro Minerals (ADMR IJ), Bumi Resources Minerals (BRMS IJ), Panin Financial (PNLF IJ), Energi Mega Persada (ENRG IJ), Transcoal Pacific (TCPI IJ) and Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGEO).
Potential deletions are Japfa Comfeed Indonesia (JPFA IJ), Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ), Timah Persero (TINS IJ), Bank Tabungan Negara Persero (BBTN IJ) and Chandra Asri Petrochemical (TPIA IJ). 


LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (July): Identifying Potential Changes

<ul><li>Following the release of the FY22 results, we revise our earnings estimates for SOE contractors under our coverage</li><li>All in all, we expect the SOE contractors to book lower gross margins this year, with modest revenues growth.</li><li>As such, we downgrade the target prices of all SOE contractors, with HOLDs on WIKA and WSKT and BUYs on PTPP and ADHI.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Following the release of the FY22 results, we revise our earnings estimates for SOE contractors under our coverageAll in all, we expect the SOE contractors to book lower gross margins this year, with modest revenues growth.As such, we downgrade the target prices of all SOE contractors, with HOLDs on WIKA and WSKT and BUYs on PTPP and ADHI.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Infrastructure: Earnings Revision for SOE Contractors

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Strategy: Macro and Flows Tracker - Currency Strength Boosts Flows</li><li>Cigarette: Waiting for change (OVERWEIGHT)</li><li>Cement sales volume March 2023: Monthly volume improved, higher market share for SMGR</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Strategy: Macro and Flows Tracker - Currency Strength Boosts FlowsCigarette: Waiting for change (OVERWEIGHT)Cement sales volume March 2023: Monthly volume improved, higher market share for SMGRContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Indonesia

PT Jasa Marga Persero Tbk operates the Indonesian highway system.  The Company collects tolls, maintains the road surfaces, and offers towing and ambulance services.

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Jasa Marga (Persero) (JSMR IJ)

LQ45 Index Rebalance: Two Changes in a Few Days

GGRM and MAPI replace TINS and JPFA in the LQ45. Passives need to buy between 1-3x ADV in the next 4 trading days. There will be pre-positioning on...

Brian Freitas

Macro and Flows Tracker - Glimpse of Recovery

We anticipate improvements in the banking sector's intermediary function, supported by ample liquidity and favourable rates

BRI Danareksa Research

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (July): Identifying Potential Changes

There could be 5 changes to the LQ45 in July. Given emphasis on liquidity, the impact on the deletes is higher than on the adds. Historically, the...

Brian Freitas

Infrastructure: Earnings Revision for SOE Contractors

Following the release of the FY22 results, we revise our earnings estimates for SOE contractors under our coverage. All in all, we expect the SOE...

BRI Danareksa Research

Equity Snapshot: April 17, 2023

See important disclosure at the back of this report bridanareksa sekuritas .co.idContent is external broker report sourced from online content...

BRI Danareksa Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

​​​LQ45 Index Rebalance: Two Changes in a Few Days

GGRM and MAPI replace TINS and JPFA in the LQ45. Passives need to buy between 1-3x ADV in the next 4 trading days. There will be pre-positioning on...

Brian Freitas

Macro and Flows Tracker - Glimpse of Recovery

We anticipate improvements in the banking sector's intermediary function, supported by ample liquidity and favourable rates

BRI Danareksa Research

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (July): Identifying Potential Changes

There could be 5 changes to the LQ45 in July. Given emphasis on liquidity, the impact on the deletes is higher than on the adds. Historically, the...

Brian Freitas

Infrastructure: Earnings Revision for SOE Contractors

Following the release of the FY22 results, we revise our earnings estimates for SOE contractors under our coverage. All in all, we expect the SOE...

BRI Danareksa Research

Equity Snapshot: April 17, 2023

See important disclosure at the back of this report bridanareksa sekuritas .co.idContent is external broker report sourced from online content...

BRI Danareksa Research

LQ45 Index Rebalance: Two Changes in a Few Days