Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst, Evidente

Sam Ferraro

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst

Evidente

Evidente is an independent financial education firm that delivers innovative financial advice to wholesale investors, including active long only funds, hedge funds, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds, in Australia and globally.  Drawing on academic research in asset pricing, behavioural finance and portfolio construction, Evidente provides wholesale investors with commercial solutions to stock selection and asset allocation decisions across equities and other asset classes.

Macroeconomics

In a blog post last year, I wrote of the lost decade for discretionary retailers; expected profitability was little changed from ten years earlier.&nbsp;A number of structural and cyclical headwinds continued to adversely impact the sector, including the persistently strong Australian dollar, consumer caution associated with the financial crisis and increased competition from e-tailers.&nbsp;In this post, I argue that signs of a less cautious consumer are emerging.&nbsp;There is downside risk to the household saving ratio as households become more optimistic about the future, durable goods spending continues to recover and consumer sentiment should benefit from the positive reaction to the Federal Budget.&nbsp;Against this backdrop, I recommend investors neutralise their under-weight bets in discretionary retailers, with a view to moving overweight as more signs of a less cautious consumer emerge.&nbsp;Getting the sector call right is more important than stock selection, but we highlight stocks that offer the strongest upside, including Echo, GUD, Harvey Norman, Premier Investment and Super Retail.

In a blog post last year, I wrote of the lost decade for discretionary retailers; expected profitability was little changed from ten years earlier.&nbsp;A number of structural and cyclical headwinds continued to adversely impact the sector, including the persistently strong Australian dollar, consumer caution associated with the financial crisis and increased competition from e-tailers.&nbsp;In this post, I argue that signs of a less cautious consumer are emerging.&nbsp;There is downside risk to the household saving ratio as households become more optimistic about the future, durable goods spending continues to recover and consumer sentiment should benefit from the positive reaction to the Federal Budget.&nbsp;Against this backdrop, I recommend investors neutralise their under-weight bets in discretionary retailers, with a view to moving overweight as more signs of a less cautious consumer emerge.&nbsp;Getting the sector call right is more important than stock selection, but we highlight stocks that offer the strongest upside, including Echo, GUD, Harvey Norman, Premier Investment and Super Retail.

A less cautious consumer: Good news for discretionary retailers (finally!)

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The RBA confounded market expectations by leaving the overnight cash rate unchanged at 2.25% at yesterday&rsquo;s Board meeting. But many will interpret the RBA's adoption of an explicit easing bias as a harbinger for further out-performance of high yielding stocks. On closer inspection, I show that high yielders have endured a period of under-performance in recent years. Both valuation theory and price patterns suggest that investors perceive high yielders to be riskier than low yielders. Consequently, the under-performance of high yielders reflects the fact that investors have eschewed risk from their portfolios. For investors seeking to invest in high yielding stocks with strong price momentum outside of the banks, utilities and REITs,&nbsp;only three&nbsp;candidates meet these criteria at present: CCL, IFL and JBH.

The RBA confounded market expectations by leaving the overnight cash rate unchanged at 2.25% at yesterday&rsquo;s Board meeting. But many will interpret the RBA's adoption of an explicit easing bias as a harbinger for further out-performance of high yielding stocks. On closer inspection, I show that high yielders have endured a period of under-performance in recent years. Both valuation theory and price patterns suggest that investors perceive high yielders to be riskier than low yielders. Consequently, the under-performance of high yielders reflects the fact that investors have eschewed risk from their portfolios. For investors seeking to invest in high yielding stocks with strong price momentum outside of the banks, utilities and REITs,&nbsp;only three&nbsp;candidates meet these criteria at present: CCL, IFL and JBH.

The yield trade and the RBA's easing bias: More than meets the eye

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Feb 20th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD35.0bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Zip, JB Hi-Fi, Goodman, CSL, Pro Medicus.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Feb 20th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD35.0bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Zip, JB Hi-Fi, Goodman, CSL, Pro Medicus.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Feb 20th): Zip, JB Hi-Fi, Goodman, CSL, Pro Medicus

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Australia's ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day.</li>
<li>The largest industry net increase in the past week was A$1.3bn into "Banks"; the largest industry net decrease was A$630mn out of "Gold".</li>
<li>Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lynas-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20374:1" rel="noopener">Lynas (LYC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bluescope-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:207:1" rel="noopener">Bluescope Steel (BSL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/treasury-wine-estates-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:710:1" rel="noopener">Treasury Wine Estates (TWE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evolution-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18363:1" rel="noopener">Evolution Mining (EVN AU)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pinnacle-investment-management" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20624:1" rel="noopener">Pinnacle Investment Management (PNI AU)</a>. </li>
</ul>


Australia's ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day.
The largest industry net increase in the past week was A$1.3bn into "Banks"; the largest industry net decrease was A$630mn out of "Gold".
Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: Lynas (LYC AU), Bluescope Steel (BSL AU), Treasury Wine Estates (TWE AU), Evolution Mining (EVN AU), and Pinnacle Investment Management (PNI AU). 


Aussie Shorts (30th Jan 2026): Lynas, Aussie Banks, Bluescope Steel, Pinnacle Investment M'ment

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Currently eight pair trade opportunities persist across three markets and four sectors.</li>
<li>
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.</li>
</ul>



Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.

Highlights: Currently eight pair trade opportunities persist across three markets and four sectors.

Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.


Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (2 Feb 2026)

Australia

JB Hi-Fi Limited is a music and electronic goods retailer in Australia.  The Company operates stores at sites located in most Australian States.  Products include consumer electronics, car sound systems, music and DVDs.

Price Gauge
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JB Hi-Fi Ltd (JBH AU)

A less cautious consumer: Good news for discretionary retailers (finally!)

In a blog post last year, I wrote of the lost decade for discretionary retailers; expected profitability was little changed from ten years...

Sam Ferraro

The yield trade and the RBA's easing bias: More than meets the eye

The RBA confounded market expectations by leaving the overnight cash rate unchanged at 2.25% at yesterday’s Board meeting. But many will interpret...

Sam Ferraro

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Feb 20th): Zip, JB Hi-Fi, Goodman, CSL, Pro Medicus

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Zip, JB Hi-Fi, Goodman, CSL, Pro Medicus.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Aussie Shorts (30th Jan 2026): Lynas, Aussie Banks, Bluescope Steel, Pinnacle Investment M'ment

Companies mentioned in this weekly short interest report include Lynas, Aussie Banks, Bluescope Steel, Treasury Wine Estates, Evolution Mining, and...

David Blennerhassett

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (2 Feb 2026)

Statistical methodology identifies eight pair trade opportunities across three markets and four sectors, offering unique insights into relative...

Gaudenz Schneider

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

A less cautious consumer: Good news for discretionary retailers (finally!)

In a blog post last year, I wrote of the lost decade for discretionary retailers; expected profitability was little changed from ten years...

Sam Ferraro

The yield trade and the RBA's easing bias: More than meets the eye

The RBA confounded market expectations by leaving the overnight cash rate unchanged at 2.25% at yesterday’s Board meeting. But many will interpret...

Sam Ferraro

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Feb 20th): Zip, JB Hi-Fi, Goodman, CSL, Pro Medicus

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Zip, JB Hi-Fi, Goodman, CSL, Pro Medicus.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Aussie Shorts (30th Jan 2026): Lynas, Aussie Banks, Bluescope Steel, Pinnacle Investment M'ment

Companies mentioned in this weekly short interest report include Lynas, Aussie Banks, Bluescope Steel, Treasury Wine Estates, Evolution Mining, and...

David Blennerhassett

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (2 Feb 2026)

​Statistical methodology identifies eight pair trade opportunities across three markets and four sectors, offering unique insights into relative...

Gaudenz Schneider

Statistical methodology identifies eight pair trade opportunities across three markets and four sectors, offering unique insights into relative...