HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Although <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jingdong-jd-industrials-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36875:1" rel="noopener">JD Industrials (7618 HK)</a> is China's largest MRO player, its maximum IPO price of HK$15.5 implies a rich FY26 PER of 28.2x.</li>
<li>The stock's highest justified valuation is a 20% premium to the sector average FY26F PER, implying only 8% upside from the IPO price, providing a limited safety margin.</li>
<li>We think it will only be attractive to price below the mid-point of the IPO range, that is, HK$14.10.</li>
</ul>


Although JD Industrials (7618 HK) is China's largest MRO player, its maximum IPO price of HK$15.5 implies a rich FY26 PER of 28.2x.
The stock's highest justified valuation is a 20% premium to the sector average FY26F PER, implying only 8% upside from the IPO price, providing a limited safety margin.
We think it will only be attractive to price below the mid-point of the IPO range, that is, HK$14.10.


JD Industrials (7618 HK) IPO: Only Attractive if Priced Cheaply

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jingdong-jd-industrials-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36875:1" rel="noopener">JD Industrials (7618 HK)</a> is a leading industrial supply chain technology and service provider in China. It has launched an HKEx IPO to raise up to US$420 million.</li>
<li>I previously discussed the IPO in <em><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jingdong-industrials-jdi-ipo-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:212076" rel="noopener">Jingdong Industrials (JDI) IPO: The Investment Case</a></strong></em>. </li>
<li>In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive.</li>
</ul>



JD Industrials (7618 HK) is a leading industrial supply chain technology and service provider in China. It has launched an HKEx IPO to raise up to US$420 million.
I previously discussed the IPO in Jingdong Industrials (JDI) IPO: The Investment Case. 
In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive.


JD Industrials IPO (7618 HK): Valuation Insights

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jingdong-jd-industrials-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36875:1" rel="noopener">JD Industrials (7618 HK)</a> is now looking to raise up to US$421m, in its Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>JDI is a leading industrial supply chain technology and service provider in China in terms of GMV in each year during the Track Record Period, according to CIC.</li>
<li>We looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about valuations.</li>
</ul>



JD Industrials (7618 HK) is now looking to raise up to US$421m, in its Hong Kong IPO.
JDI is a leading industrial supply chain technology and service provider in China in terms of GMV in each year during the Track Record Period, according to CIC.
We looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about valuations.


JD Industrials IPO - Valuation Cut Means Its Priced to Go

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The December rebalance of the Hang Seng family of indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituent weights.</li>
<li>The net round-trip trade across all stocks across the five indices is estimated at HK$50bn (US$6.4bn). There is size to trade in a lot of stocks.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi (1810 HK)</a> is the biggest buy due to HSIII Index inclusion and capping, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK)</a> is the biggest capping sell.</li>
</ul>


The December rebalance of the Hang Seng family of indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituent weights.
The net round-trip trade across all stocks across the five indices is estimated at HK$50bn (US$6.4bn). There is size to trade in a lot of stocks.

Xiaomi (1810 HK) is the biggest buy due to HSIII Index inclusion and capping, while Alibaba (9988 HK) is the biggest capping sell.


HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII, HSBIO Index Rebalance: US$6.4bn of Flows Post Capping (Dec 2025)

<ul>
<li>The December rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kraneshares-csi-china-internet-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28208:1" rel="noopener">KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB US)</a> will take place at the close of trading on 12 December.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-pictures-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20724:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Pictures</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/east-buy-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27796:1" rel="noopener">East Buy Holding</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-healthcare-and-technology-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27008:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Healthcare and Technology</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xd-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28283:1" rel="noopener">XD Inc.</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/caocao-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:42803:1" rel="noopener">CaoCao (2643 HK)</a> will be added, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/iqiyi-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26755:1" rel="noopener">iQIYI Inc (IQ US)</a> will be deleted.</li>
<li>Short interest has increased in most adds recently and there could be some short covering following the announcement of the index inclusion.</li>
</ul>


The December rebalance of the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB US) will take place at the close of trading on 12 December.

Alibaba Pictures, East Buy Holding, Ping An Healthcare and Technology, XD Inc. and CaoCao (2643 HK) will be added, while iQIYI Inc (IQ US) will be deleted.
Short interest has increased in most adds recently and there could be some short covering following the announcement of the index inclusion.


China

JD.com, Inc. is an online direct sales company in China. The Company offers a wide selection of products through its website and mobile applications. JD.com sells appliances, computers, digital products, communication products, garments, books, and household items to consumers and vendors.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

JD.com (9618 HK)

JD Industrials (7618 HK) IPO: Only Attractive if Priced Cheaply

JD Industrials is China's largest MRO player, but its IPO price of HK$15.5 suggests a high valuation, limiting upside. To make it attractive, it...

Osbert Tang, CFA

JD Industrials IPO (7618 HK): Valuation Insights

JDI is seeking to raise up to US$420 million. In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that the IPO price range is...

Arun George

JD Industrials IPO - Valuation Cut Means Its Priced to Go

JD Industrials (7618 HK) is now looking to raise up to US$421m, in its Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we talk about valuations.

Sumeet Singh

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII, HSBIO Index Rebalance: US$6.4bn of Flows Post Capping (Dec 2025)

The Dec rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII, HSHKBIO indices will use today's closing prices for capping. The round-trip trade across the...

Brian Freitas

KWEB Index Rebalance: 5 Adds & A Delete

There are 5 adds and 1 delete for the KWEB ETF in Dec. Most of the changes were forecast but short covering and positioning could take the stocks...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

JD Industrials (7618 HK) IPO: Only Attractive if Priced Cheaply

​JD Industrials is China's largest MRO player, but its IPO price of HK$15.5 suggests a high valuation, limiting upside. To make it attractive, it...

Osbert Tang, CFA

JD Industrials IPO (7618 HK): Valuation Insights

JDI is seeking to raise up to US$420 million. In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that the IPO price range is...

Arun George

JD Industrials IPO - Valuation Cut Means Its Priced to Go

JD Industrials (7618 HK) is now looking to raise up to US$421m, in its Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we talk about valuations.

Sumeet Singh

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII, HSBIO Index Rebalance: US$6.4bn of Flows Post Capping (Dec 2025)

The Dec rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII, HSHKBIO indices will use today's closing prices for capping. The round-trip trade across the...

Brian Freitas

KWEB Index Rebalance: 5 Adds & A Delete

There are 5 adds and 1 delete for the KWEB ETF in Dec. Most of the changes were forecast but short covering and positioning could take the stocks...

Brian Freitas

JD Industrials is China's largest MRO player, but its IPO price of HK$15.5 suggests a high valuation, limiting upside. To make it attractive, it...