Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 28th Mar 2023, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a> announced that it would adopt a new organizational and governance structure, splitting into six major business groups and other investments.</li>
<li>Alibaba also stated that each of the business groups would be set up as an independent entity with its own board and the groups will eventually seek to list.</li>
<li>Having looked at the past performance of its division, some appear more worthy than others of undertaking a listing in the next year or two.</li>
</ul>


On 28th Mar 2023, Alibaba Group (9988 HK) announced that it would adopt a new organizational and governance structure, splitting into six major business groups and other investments.
Alibaba also stated that each of the business groups would be set up as an independent entity with its own board and the groups will eventually seek to list.
Having looked at the past performance of its division, some appear more worthy than others of undertaking a listing in the next year or two.


Alibaba Potential IPOs - Part 1 - Six Mini-Alibabas - Some Are More Ready than Others to List

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In a surprise, the Hang Seng index committee has decided not to make any changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> at the March rebalance.</li>
<li>This further delays the timeline for the index to reach 80 constituents. The earliest we will reach the target now is June 2023 (a year later than targeted).</li>
<li>Despite no changes to the index constituents, capping and float changes will lead to a one-way turnover of 2.61% resulting in a one-way trade of HK$5.1bn.</li>
</ul>


In a surprise, the Hang Seng index committee has decided not to make any changes to the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) at the March rebalance.
This further delays the timeline for the index to reach 80 constituents. The earliest we will reach the target now is June 2023 (a year later than targeted).
Despite no changes to the index constituents, capping and float changes will lead to a one-way turnover of 2.61% resulting in a one-way trade of HK$5.1bn.


HSI Index Rebalance: No Changes & Further Delays to Reaching the 80 Member Target

<ul>
<li>There are currently 76 index constituents and we can (maybe? finally! hopefully 🤞) get to 80 members in March before commencing the next leg up to 100 index constituents.</li>
<li>We list 10 potential inclusions to the index in March. Adding all 10 stocks will lead to over 6% one-way turnover, so there will be fewer inclusions.</li>
<li>All stocks will have over 1 day of ADV to buy from passive trackers. Some stocks have short interest of over 7% of float.</li>
</ul>


There are currently 76 index constituents and we can (maybe? finally! hopefully 🤞) get to 80 members in March before commencing the next leg up to 100 index constituents.
We list 10 potential inclusions to the index in March. Adding all 10 stocks will lead to over 6% one-way turnover, so there will be fewer inclusions.
All stocks will have over 1 day of ADV to buy from passive trackers. Some stocks have short interest of over 7% of float.


HSI Index Rebalance Preview: Better Late Than Never?

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Chinese parcel volume growth in April was solid, and unit price trend appears benign</li>
<li>No signs (yet) of aggressive moves by ZTO Express to recovery volume share in Q225</li>
<li>Besides SF, express companies have struggled to differentiate themselves in recent years</li>
</ul>


Chinese parcel volume growth in April was solid, and unit price trend appears benign
No signs (yet) of aggressive moves by ZTO Express to recovery volume share in Q225
Besides SF, express companies have struggled to differentiate themselves in recent years


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Volume Firm, Price Benign | ZTO Under Pressure? (May 2025)

<ul>
<li>In Q125, ZTO's rate of volume growth accelerated, but it still lagged overall market growth</li>
<li>Despite a sharp (-18% Y/Y) decline in SG&amp;A expenses, OpInc margin fell by -70 bps Y/Y</li>
<li>Guidance suggests ZTO will chase volume share rest of FY25, pressuring margins further</li>
</ul>


In Q125, ZTO's rate of volume growth accelerated, but it still lagged overall market growth
Despite a sharp (-18% Y/Y) decline in SG&amp;A expenses, OpInc margin fell by -70 bps Y/Y
Guidance suggests ZTO will chase volume share rest of FY25, pressuring margins further


ZTO Express Q125 Results: Adj EBITDA Barely Moved Despite +19% Y/Y Parcel Volume Growth | AVOID

China

JD Logistics, Inc. offers logistics services. The Company provides cargo transportation, cargo distribution, warehousing, and other services. JD Logistics is located in China.

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JD Logistics (2618 HK)

Alibaba Potential IPOs - Part 1 - Six Mini-Alibabas - Some Are More Ready than Others to List

Alibaba recently announced that it would adopt a new organizational structure, splitting into six major business groups and other investments. In...

Sumeet Singh

HSI Index Rebalance: No Changes & Further Delays to Reaching the 80 Member Target

In a surprise, there are no adds/deletes in March. There are some large capping changes that result in a one-way turnover of 2.6% and a one-way...

Brian Freitas

HSI Index Rebalance Preview: Better Late Than Never?

Adding 4 stocks gets us to 80 members - a target that was to be reached by mid-2022. We list 10 potential adds where passive trackers will need to...

Brian Freitas

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Volume Firm, Price Benign | ZTO Under Pressure? (May 2025)

April volume and price trends were mostly benign, but the fact remains that most of China's express companies have struggled to differentiate their...

Tracking Traffic

ZTO Express Q125 Results: Adj EBITDA Barely Moved Despite +19% Y/Y Parcel Volume Growth | AVOID

ZTO Express reported core margin compression again in Q125, despite an acceleration of volume growth and impressive cost control. "Key accounts"...

Tracking Traffic

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