China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Baba: Alibaba's annual report, Chinese media discussions and our thoughts</li>
<li>BGNE/9926HK/9995HK/1801HK/1877HK/LGNE/ZLAB: NHSA issued new rule to protect drug pricing (-)</li>
<li>BEKE: China reinforce the city village reconstruction policy, which is different with Shantytown Renovation project（+)</li>
</ul>


Baba: Alibaba's annual report, Chinese media discussions and our thoughts
BGNE/9926HK/9995HK/1801HK/1877HK/LGNE/ZLAB: NHSA issued new rule to protect drug pricing (-)
BEKE: China reinforce the city village reconstruction policy, which is different with Shantytown Renovation project（+)


China TMT Update-BABA/BGNE/9926HK/9995HK/1801HK/1877HK/LGNE/ZLAB/BEKE-Baba's Annual Report/NHSA Rule

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of July 21st.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We estimate the inflows to be USD 2.1billion and highlight flows for Tencent, Hsbc.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of July 21st.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We estimate the inflows to be USD 2.1billion and highlight flows for Tencent, Hsbc.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jul 21st): Tencent, HSBC

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Lalatech Holdings Co Ltd / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lalatech-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36848:1" rel="noopener">Lalatech Holdings Co Ltd (LALA HK)</a>, a leading logistics transaction platform, has filed for an HKEx IPO to raise US$1 billion, according to press reports.  </li>
<li>In <em><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/lalatech-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:108291" rel="noopener">Lalatech IPO: The Bull Case</a></strong></em>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.</li>
<li>The key elements of the bear case rest on market share pressure, KPIs declining growth, declining revenue visibility, maiden profitability built on a shaky foundation and barely positive underlying FCF. </li>
</ul>



Lalatech Holdings Co Ltd (LALA HK), a leading logistics transaction platform, has filed for an HKEx IPO to raise US$1 billion, according to press reports.  
In Lalatech IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The key elements of the bear case rest on market share pressure, KPIs declining growth, declining revenue visibility, maiden profitability built on a shaky foundation and barely positive underlying FCF. 


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lalatech-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36848:1" rel="noopener">Lalatech Holdings Co Ltd (LALA HK)</a>, a leading logistics transaction platform, has filed for an HKEx IPO to raise US$1 billion, according to press reports.   </li>
<li>Lalatech is the largest logistics transaction platform in the world by closed-loop freight gross transaction value in the first half of 2022, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. </li>
<li>The key elements of the bull case rest on solid growth, rising monetization rates, achieving maiden profitability, a shift to cash generation and a debt-free balance sheet.</li>
</ul>



Lalatech Holdings Co Ltd (LALA HK), a leading logistics transaction platform, has filed for an HKEx IPO to raise US$1 billion, according to press reports.   
Lalatech is the largest logistics transaction platform in the world by closed-loop freight gross transaction value in the first half of 2022, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. 
The key elements of the bull case rest on solid growth, rising monetization rates, achieving maiden profitability, a shift to cash generation and a debt-free balance sheet.


Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We expect JDL to report C2Q23 revenue and non-IFRS net profit margin (1.5%) and 0.4ppts vs. consensus. We expect 2Q revenue (excl. Deppon) to grow 5%~ YoY .</li>
<li>JDL is facing increasing competition from (1) the recent launch of Cainiao’s high-end delivery service, (2) improved ZTO service, and (2) Douyin’s actions to increasingly in-source logistics.</li>
<li>We maintain JDL's SELL rating but raise its TP to HK$ 9.4, as we expect JDL will lower staffing costs, and by reducing staff redundancy.</li>
</ul>


We expect JDL to report C2Q23 revenue and non-IFRS net profit margin (1.5%) and 0.4ppts vs. consensus. We expect 2Q revenue (excl. Deppon) to grow 5%~ YoY .
JDL is facing increasing competition from (1) the recent launch of Cainiao’s high-end delivery service, (2) improved ZTO service, and (2) Douyin’s actions to increasingly in-source logistics.
We maintain JDL's SELL rating but raise its TP to HK$ 9.4, as we expect JDL will lower staffing costs, and by reducing staff redundancy.


[JD Logistics (2618 HK, SELL, TP HK$9.4) TP Change]: Premium Parcel Delivery Is Increasingly Crowded

China

JD Logistics, Inc. offers logistics services. The Company provides cargo transportation, cargo distribution, warehousing, and other services. JD Logistics is located in China.

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JD Logistics (2618 HK)

China TMT Update-BABA/BGNE/9926HK/9995HK/1801HK/1877HK/LGNE/ZLAB/BEKE-Baba's Annual Report/NHSA Rule

Baba: Alibaba's annual report;BGNE/9926HK/9995HK/1801HK/1877HK/LGNE/ZLAB: NHSA issued new rule to protect drug pricing;BEKE: China reinforce the...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jul 21st): Tencent, HSBC

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for Tencent Holdings Limited and, HSBC.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Lalatech IPO: The Bear Case

The key elements of the bear case rest on market share pressure, KPIs declining growth, declining revenue visibility, profitability built on a...

Arun George

Lalatech IPO: The Bull Case

The key elements of the bull case rest on solid growth, rising monetization rates, achieving maiden profitability, a shift to cash generation and a...

Arun George

[JD Logistics (2618 HK, SELL, TP HK$9.4) TP Change]: Premium Parcel Delivery Is Increasingly Crowded

We maintain JDL's SELL rating but raise its TP to HK$ 9.4, as we expect JDL will lower staffing costs, and by reducing staff redundancy created by...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

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