Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In May, average pricing fell again Y/Y, and volume growth moderated somewhat vs April</li>
<li>We look forward to learning more about J&amp;T Global Express IPO and its path to profits</li>
<li>Check out the weird China-US postage fraud case and YTD share performance</li>
</ul>


In May, average pricing fell again Y/Y, and volume growth moderated somewhat vs April
We look forward to learning more about J&amp;T Global Express IPO and its path to profits
Check out the weird China-US postage fraud case and YTD share performance


Monthly Express Tracker | ASPs Down Again | Volume Growth Moderates | J&T Express IPO | (June 2023)

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

J&T Global Express  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-t-global-express" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36819:1" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express (1936374D CH)</a>, a leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia and China has filed for a HKEx IPO to raise US$1 billion, according to press reports.   </li>
<li>In <em><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/j-t-global-express-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:104964" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express IPO: The Bull Case</a></strong></em>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.</li>
<li>The key elements of the bear case rest on organic revenue decline in SEA/China, deteriorating contract liabilities, SEA margin pressure, high cash burn and weak balance sheet.</li>
</ul>



J&amp;T Global Express (1936374D CH), a leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia and China has filed for a HKEx IPO to raise US$1 billion, according to press reports.   
In J&amp;T Global Express IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The key elements of the bear case rest on organic revenue decline in SEA/China, deteriorating contract liabilities, SEA margin pressure, high cash burn and weak balance sheet.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-t-global-express" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36819:1" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express (1936374D CH)</a>, a leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia and China has filed for a HKEx IPO to raise US$1 billion, according to press reports.   </li>
<li>J&amp;T is the number one express delivery operator in Southeast Asia by parcel volume from 2020 to 2022, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. </li>
<li>The key elements of the bull case rest on large addressable markets, market share gains, robust reported revenue growth and narrowing losses which set a path to profitability.</li>
</ul>



J&amp;T Global Express (1936374D CH), a leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia and China has filed for a HKEx IPO to raise US$1 billion, according to press reports.   
J&amp;T is the number one express delivery operator in Southeast Asia by parcel volume from 2020 to 2022, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. 
The key elements of the bull case rest on large addressable markets, market share gains, robust reported revenue growth and narrowing losses which set a path to profitability.


Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jun 9th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Longfor, Yuexiu Property, Pop Mart.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jun 9th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short changes in Longfor, Yuexiu Property, Pop Mart.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Longfor, Yuexiu Property, Pop Mart

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jingdong-property-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36871:1" rel="noopener">JD Property (JDP HK)</a> is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>JD Property (JDP) develops and manages modern infrastructure, consisting primarily of logistics parks, as well as business parks and other assets in China and in Asia.</li>
<li>We had looked at the company’s past performance and undertaken a peer comparison in our earlier notes, in this note we will discuss our initial thoughts on valuation. </li>
</ul>



JD Property (JDP HK) is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
JD Property (JDP) develops and manages modern infrastructure, consisting primarily of logistics parks, as well as business parks and other assets in China and in Asia.
We had looked at the company’s past performance and undertaken a peer comparison in our earlier notes, in this note we will discuss our initial thoughts on valuation. 


JD Property Pre-IPO - Initial Thoughts on Valuation

China

JD Logistics, Inc. offers logistics services. The Company provides cargo transportation, cargo distribution, warehousing, and other services. JD Logistics is located in China.

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JD Logistics (2618 HK)

Monthly Express Tracker | ASPs Down Again | Volume Growth Moderates | J&T Express IPO | (June 2023)

In May, pricing weakened and volume growth moderated; we expect these two trends to hurt Q2 results. We also believe the planned J&T Global Express...

Tracking Traffic

J&T Global Express IPO: The Bear Case

The key elements of the bear case rest on organic revenue decline in SEA/China, deteriorating contract liabilities, SEA margin pressure, high cash...

Arun George

J&T Global Express IPO: The Bull Case

The key elements of the bull case rest on large addressable markets, market share gains, robust reported revenue growth and narrowing losses which...

Arun George

HK Short Interest Weekly: Longfor, Yuexiu Property, Pop Mart

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jun 9th and highlight short interest changes in Longfor, Yuexiu Property,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

JD Property Pre-IPO - Initial Thoughts on Valuation

JD Property (JDP HK) is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we will discuss our initial thoughts on valuation.

Clarence Chu

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