Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>BOJ sows confusion with hawkish and dovish statements regarding its tightening policy. On a USD-basis the Japan market failed again to break its long-term resistance indicating a "Dead Cat Bounce".</li>
<li>Auto and Semiconductor sectors pressured by US trade policies and Trading Companies are affected by JPY strength.  US rejection of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-steel-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:961:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP)</a>merger affects Japan steel sector.</li>
<li>Higher domestic yields is a catalyst to reverse the large money flows from Japan during the Kuroda years.</li>
</ul>


BOJ sows confusion with hawkish and dovish statements regarding its tightening policy. On a USD-basis the Japan market failed again to break its long-term resistance indicating a "Dead Cat Bounce".
Auto and Semiconductor sectors pressured by US trade policies and Trading Companies are affected by JPY strength.  US rejection of Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP)merger affects Japan steel sector.
Higher domestic yields is a catalyst to reverse the large money flows from Japan during the Kuroda years.


JAPAN:  No Lifeguard on Duty, Swim at Your Own Risk

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Currently eight pair trade opportunities persist across four markets and three sectors.
</li>
<li>
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.</li>
</ul>



Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.

Highlights: Currently eight pair trade opportunities persist across four markets and three sectors.


Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.


Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (7 Sep 2026)

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-Japan in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on Yamaha Motor, Orix, Advantest, Kioxia, Rakuten, Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, Panasonic, JFE.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-Japan in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on Yamaha Motor, Orix, Advantest, Kioxia, Rakuten, Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, Panasonic, JFE.


MS-Japan Index Earning Revision (Aug): Yamaha Motor, Orix, Advantest, Kioxia, Rakuten, Panasonic

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>MS-Japan rebalance one ADD, Kokusai Electric, and two DELETEs, JFE Holdings and Seibu Holdings, on 1 Sep 2026. We review the completed bridge against nine prior cycles.</li>
<li>Kokusai Electric added +2.8% alpha over the bridge on top of its +13.5% pre-announcement run. Both DELETEs were near flat over the bridge after negative announcement days.</li>
<li>Historically, positive-bridge ADDs gave back in the first implementation week. The historical DELETE first-week record after a positive bridge is flat.</li>
</ul>


MS-Japan rebalance one ADD, Kokusai Electric, and two DELETEs, JFE Holdings and Seibu Holdings, on 1 Sep 2026. We review the completed bridge against nine prior cycles.
Kokusai Electric added +2.8% alpha over the bridge on top of its +13.5% pre-announcement run. Both DELETEs were near flat over the bridge after negative announcement days.
Historically, positive-bridge ADDs gave back in the first implementation week. The historical DELETE first-week record after a positive bridge is flat.


MS-Japan Sep 2026 Index Rebalance: Pre-Implementation Update

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The bullish outlook for global equities (MSCI ACWI) that we initiated in early November 2023 remains intact; continue to ride this trend higher.</li>
<li>Many of the heavily-weighted countries in terms of global market capitalization (U.S., Europe, Japan) are extended; we'd welcome some consolidation, though it may come from higher levels.</li>
<li>Ultimately, market dynamics remain healthy, and we would treat pullbacks as buying opportunities. Downgrading India to market weight. Actionable Themes: Global Materials, Energy, Consumer Discretionary, and Industrials</li>
</ul>


The bullish outlook for global equities (MSCI ACWI) that we initiated in early November 2023 remains intact; continue to ride this trend higher.
Many of the heavily-weighted countries in terms of global market capitalization (U.S., Europe, Japan) are extended; we'd welcome some consolidation, though it may come from higher levels.
Ultimately, market dynamics remain healthy, and we would treat pullbacks as buying opportunities. Downgrading India to market weight. Actionable Themes: Global Materials, Energy, Consumer Discretionary, and Industrials


Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading India; Buys in Materials, Energy, Discretionary, Industrials

Japan

JFE Holdings, Inc. is a holding company which was established through the merger of NKK Corp and Kawasaki Steel Corp.  The Company manages and conducts its subsidiaries' business, which is steel production and integrated engineering services.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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JFE Holdings (5411 JP)

JAPAN: No Lifeguard on Duty, Swim at Your Own Risk

BOJ sends mixed signals on its pace of tightening as the JPY strengthens. Auto, semi and trading company sectors continue to be under pressure. A...

David Mudd

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (7 Sep 2026)

Discover eight pair trade opportunities across four markets and three sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

MS-Japan Index Earning Revision (Aug): Yamaha Motor, Orix, Advantest, Kioxia, Rakuten, Panasonic

We analyzed MS-Japan's consensus for Aug 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in Yamaha Motor, Orix, Advantest, Kioxia, Rakuten, Kawasaki Kisen...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

MS-Japan Sep 2026 Index Rebalance: Pre-Implementation Update

MS-Japan enters implementation on 1 Sep with one ADD and two DELETEs. We update post-announcement stock performance and discuss implementation trades.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading India; Buys in Materials, Energy, Discretionary, Industrials

Bullish Outlook Intact on MSCI ACWI; Downgrading India to Market; Market Dynamics Healthy; Treat Pullbacks as Buying Opportunities; Buys in global...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

JAPAN: No Lifeguard on Duty, Swim at Your Own Risk

BOJ sends mixed signals on its pace of tightening as the JPY strengthens. Auto, semi and trading company sectors continue to be under pressure. A...

David Mudd

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (7 Sep 2026)

​Discover eight pair trade opportunities across four markets and three sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

MS-Japan Index Earning Revision (Aug): Yamaha Motor, Orix, Advantest, Kioxia, Rakuten, Panasonic

We analyzed MS-Japan's consensus for Aug 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in Yamaha Motor, Orix, Advantest, Kioxia, Rakuten, Kawasaki Kisen...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

MS-Japan Sep 2026 Index Rebalance: Pre-Implementation Update

MS-Japan enters implementation on 1 Sep with one ADD and two DELETEs. We update post-announcement stock performance and discuss implementation trades.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading India; Buys in Materials, Energy, Discretionary, Industrials

Bullish Outlook Intact on MSCI ACWI; Downgrading India to Market; Market Dynamics Healthy; Treat Pullbacks as Buying Opportunities; Buys in global...

Vermilion Research

Discover eight pair trade opportunities across four markets and three sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.