HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Around RMB5 billion generic drugs would be included in VBP in 2024/2025 (e.g. sevoflurane/Ioversol/butorphanol tartrate). So, the assumption that all the negative effects of VBP have cleared up isn’t correct.</li>
<li>Hengrui’s innovative drugs would lose growth momentum after they reach peak sales. It’s difficult for Hengrui to maintain its scale expansion or achieve the over 20% YoY revenue growth.</li>
<li>Hengrui’s PE would fall below 30 (or even below 20) in the future, which means its valuation would start to enter a downward trend. Current high valuation cannot be justified.</li>
</ul>


Around RMB5 billion generic drugs would be included in VBP in 2024/2025 (e.g. sevoflurane/Ioversol/butorphanol tartrate). So, the assumption that all the negative effects of VBP have cleared up isn’t correct.
Hengrui’s innovative drugs would lose growth momentum after they reach peak sales. It’s difficult for Hengrui to maintain its scale expansion or achieve the over 20% YoY revenue growth.
Hengrui’s PE would fall below 30 (or even below 20) in the future, which means its valuation would start to enter a downward trend. Current high valuation cannot be justified.


Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276.CH) - More Downside Ahead; The Long Logic Doesn't Exist

Event-Driven

Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>It is said that Fosun Pharma plans to privatize Henlius. There’re doubts about how to solve the debt problem/cash flow pressure of Fosun Pharma. A third party could be involved.</li>
<li>Shareholders may not be willing to accept an Offer Price that is significantly below IPO price. It’s also possible that shareholders vote against the privatization. So, there are many uncertainties.</li>
<li>Deal talks are still ongoing. It's difficult to see clearly what's happening under the table. Valuation logic of Fosun Pharma should be more like PE/VC firms not traditional pharmaceutical company.</li>
</ul>


It is said that Fosun Pharma plans to privatize Henlius. There’re doubts about how to solve the debt problem/cash flow pressure of Fosun Pharma. A third party could be involved.
Shareholders may not be willing to accept an Offer Price that is significantly below IPO price. It’s also possible that shareholders vote against the privatization. So, there are many uncertainties.
Deal talks are still ongoing. It's difficult to see clearly what's happening under the table. Valuation logic of Fosun Pharma should be more like PE/VC firms not traditional pharmaceutical company.


Fosun Pharma (2196 HK/600196.CH) To Privatize Henlius (2696.HK) - Things Are Not as Good as Expected

<ul>
<li>Innovent’s 24Q1 product sales was up just 6% QoQ. The overall data shows that PD-1 growth has entered a bottleneck. This makes 24H2 YoY growth rate uncertain.</li>
<li>The deal between Hengrui and Hercules is different from traditional license-out cooperation, but belong to asset spin-off in essence, which is a “smart deal” and also a meaningful attempt.</li>
<li>There’re some positive signals in Zai Lab’s 24Q1 performance, but the pain points of business model severely limit its profitability/revenue scale. Zai Lab still has a long way to go.</li>
</ul>


Innovent’s 24Q1 product sales was up just 6% QoQ. The overall data shows that PD-1 growth has entered a bottleneck. This makes 24H2 YoY growth rate uncertain.
The deal between Hengrui and Hercules is different from traditional license-out cooperation, but belong to asset spin-off in essence, which is a “smart deal” and also a meaningful attempt.
There’re some positive signals in Zai Lab’s 24Q1 performance, but the pain points of business model severely limit its profitability/revenue scale. Zai Lab still has a long way to go.


China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.2) - Innovent's Trouble, Hengrui's “smart Deal”, Zai Lab’s Pain Point

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of May 31st.</li>
<li>We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$860.8 million, led by consumer staples, financials, health care, and offset by information technology, materials, utilities.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Zijin Mining, China Yangtze Power, Montage Technology, Moutai, CMB.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of May 31st.
We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$860.8 million, led by consumer staples, financials, health care, and offset by information technology, materials, utilities.
We highlight flows for Zijin Mining, China Yangtze Power, Montage Technology, Moutai, CMB.


Northbound Flows (May 31st): Zijin Mining, China Yangtze Power, Montage Technology, Moutai, CMB

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

China Yangtze Power Co, Ltd. / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.</li>
<li>Last week saw NORTHBOUND net SELL RMB 5.7bn of A-shares on lower gross volumes. NORTHBOUND bought Zijin, Yangtze Power, and renewables and sold SOEs.</li>
<li>Ongoing questions as to whether the NORTHBOUND volumes to the buy side are all foreigners. Some suspect there is national team buying mixed in, as was expected from earlier announcements.</li>
</ul>


The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
Last week saw NORTHBOUND net SELL RMB 5.7bn of A-shares on lower gross volumes. NORTHBOUND bought Zijin, Yangtze Power, and renewables and sold SOEs.
Ongoing questions as to whether the NORTHBOUND volumes to the buy side are all foreigners. Some suspect there is national team buying mixed in, as was expected from earlier announcements.


Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 31 May 2024): Net Sell Flows on Weak Gross Volumes

China

Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co., Ltd. develops, manufactures, and markets a variety of medicines and medicine packing materials. The Company's products include anti-tumor medicines, pain-killers, anti-infection medicines, aluminum foil, and other related products.

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Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH)