Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16279:1" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a> in the equity space is the best way to play bullish copper long-term with its long-term (10-year) ROCE of &gt;22% </li>
<li>With low-cost production assets in Peru and Mexico, the company has managed EBITDA margins of&gt; 39% across the cycle (last 15 years) and averaging 50%.</li>
<li>A 100% payout results in a dividend yield of 3.5%. We believe there is a price for everything, and in the event of a 20% correction, it would be attractive.</li>
</ul>



Southern Copper (SCCO US) in the equity space is the best way to play bullish copper long-term with its long-term (10-year) ROCE of &gt;22% 
With low-cost production assets in Peru and Mexico, the company has managed EBITDA margins of&gt; 39% across the cycle (last 15 years) and averaging 50%.
A 100% payout results in a dividend yield of 3.5%. We believe there is a price for everything, and in the event of a 20% correction, it would be attractive.


<ul>
<li>Top miners like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/teck-resources-ltd-36dbdad5-1430-4d7a-8578-31bc50086f72" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33343:1" rel="noopener">Teck Resources (TECK US)</a> are signaling their long-term bullish copper intent through their recent corporate actions. </li>
<li>Copper may experience short periods of oversupply, but its long-term outlook makes it one of the best commodities we cover in terms of return potential. </li>
<li>Our best plays in the copper space are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16279:1" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/teck-resources-ltd-36dbdad5-1430-4d7a-8578-31bc50086f72" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33343:1" rel="noopener">Teck Resources (TECK US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/freeport-mcmoran-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12491:1" rel="noopener">Freeport Mcmoran (FCX US)</a>
</li>
</ul>


Top miners like BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU) and Teck Resources (TECK US) are signaling their long-term bullish copper intent through their recent corporate actions. 
Copper may experience short periods of oversupply, but its long-term outlook makes it one of the best commodities we cover in terms of return potential. 
Our best plays in the copper space are Southern Copper (SCCO US), Teck Resources (TECK US) and Freeport Mcmoran (FCX US)



Copper Primer: What We Like About Copper And What to Play

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Precious and energy-transition metals lead as structural scarcity, central-bank demand, and electrification support gold, silver, copper, aluminium, zinc, and rare earths into 2026.</li>
<li>Bulks and hydrocarbons lag with weak China demand, oversupply, and compressed margins across iron ore, nickel, steel, coal, and crude, keeping the segment firmly underweight.</li>
<li>Top Asia exposures include Zijin, Korea Zinc, Hindustan Zinc, Vedanta, CMOC, JXAM, SMM, Mitsui, Jiangxi Copper, NALCO, Hongqiao, Hindalco, Shenghe, and CNRE.</li>
</ul>


Precious and energy-transition metals lead as structural scarcity, central-bank demand, and electrification support gold, silver, copper, aluminium, zinc, and rare earths into 2026.
Bulks and hydrocarbons lag with weak China demand, oversupply, and compressed margins across iron ore, nickel, steel, coal, and crude, keeping the segment firmly underweight.
Top Asia exposures include Zijin, Korea Zinc, Hindustan Zinc, Vedanta, CMOC, JXAM, SMM, Mitsui, Jiangxi Copper, NALCO, Hongqiao, Hindalco, Shenghe, and CNRE.


Asia Metals Outlook 2026: Scarcity Favours Gold, Copper, Aluminium

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>Despite an overwhelming response and a 26-30% surge in the grey market, at 8.3x FY26 PER,  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chuangxin-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45636:1" rel="noopener">Chuangxin Industries (2788 HK)</a>'s IPO price does not generate much excitement for us. </li>
<li>Heavy reliance on connected transactions with the controlling shareholder, pressure on margins in the future, and a highly leveraged balance sheet are concerns. </li>
<li>We do not think it justifies trading at a premium to peers, hence, limited upside from now. The small free float, however, will increase the share price volatility.</li>
</ul>


Despite an overwhelming response and a 26-30% surge in the grey market, at 8.3x FY26 PER,  Chuangxin Industries (2788 HK)'s IPO price does not generate much excitement for us. 
Heavy reliance on connected transactions with the controlling shareholder, pressure on margins in the future, and a highly leveraged balance sheet are concerns. 
We do not think it justifies trading at a premium to peers, hence, limited upside from now. The small free float, however, will increase the share price volatility.


Chuangxin Industries (2788 HK): It Doesn't Pay to Be Aggressive

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio's performance was -2.01% in October versus returns of -0.81 for the benchmark and -3.53 to  -8.62 for Hong Kong indexes.</li>
<li>The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio has captured most of the market gains and minimized drawdowns since inception. The portfolio's outperformance is more than 40% since inception in October 2024.</li>
<li>At month-end, we reduced materials and healthcare exposure.  We had already reduced the tech exposure earlier in the month.  We established positions in the utility, textile, and battery sectors.</li>
</ul>


The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio's performance was -2.01% in October versus returns of -0.81 for the benchmark and -3.53 to  -8.62 for Hong Kong indexes.
The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio has captured most of the market gains and minimized drawdowns since inception. The portfolio's outperformance is more than 40% since inception in October 2024.
At month-end, we reduced materials and healthcare exposure.  We had already reduced the tech exposure earlier in the month.  We established positions in the utility, textile, and battery sectors.


HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (October 2025)

China

Jiangxi Copper Company Limited mines and distributes metal products. The Company produces nonferrous metals, ferrous metals, rare metals, and other products. Jiangxi Copper also produces chemical products.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Jiangxi Copper (600362 CH)

Southern Copper: In a League of Its Own

We initiate on Southern Copper (SCCO US), a high-quality copper play with assets in Peru and Mexico. Its long term ROCE >22% makes its a very...

Sameer Taneja

Copper Primer: What We Like About Copper And What to Play

We initiate with a primer on the copper sector. We elaborate on our fundamental rationale for being bullish on the metal and discuss different ways...

Sameer Taneja

Asia Metals Outlook 2026: Scarcity Favours Gold, Copper, Aluminium

Precious and energy-transition metals set to outperform bulks and hydrocarbons through 2026, with top Asia exposures including Zijin, Korea Zinc,...

Rahul Jain

Chuangxin Industries (2788 HK): It Doesn't Pay to Be Aggressive

Chuangxin's IPO fails to excite despite a grey market surge, with concerns over connected transactions, margin pressure, and leverage. Limited...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (October 2025)

We made mid-month adjustments to the portfolio due to sudden re-escalation of tensions with the US & concurrent sectoral de-rating. Several...

David Mudd

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Southern Copper: In a League of Its Own

We initiate on Southern Copper (SCCO US), a high-quality copper play with assets in Peru and Mexico. Its long term ROCE >22% makes its a very...

Sameer Taneja

Copper Primer: What We Like About Copper And What to Play

We initiate with a primer on the copper sector. We elaborate on our fundamental rationale for being bullish on the metal and discuss different ways...

Sameer Taneja

Asia Metals Outlook 2026: Scarcity Favours Gold, Copper, Aluminium

​Precious and energy-transition metals set to outperform bulks and hydrocarbons through 2026, with top Asia exposures including Zijin, Korea Zinc,...

Rahul Jain

Chuangxin Industries (2788 HK): It Doesn't Pay to Be Aggressive

​Chuangxin's IPO fails to excite despite a grey market surge, with concerns over connected transactions, margin pressure, and leverage. Limited...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (October 2025)

We made mid-month adjustments to the portfolio due to sudden re-escalation of tensions with the US & concurrent sectoral de-rating. Several...

David Mudd

Precious and energy-transition metals set to outperform bulks and hydrocarbons through 2026, with top Asia exposures including Zijin, Korea Zinc,...

Chuangxin's IPO fails to excite despite a grey market surge, with concerns over connected transactions, margin pressure, and leverage. Limited...