Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The government's 300 MT crude steel capacity target by 2030 is now in full swing, anchored by ArcelorMittal's newly-cleared INR1.5 lakh crore greenfield project and aggressive brownfield by other players.</li>
<li>This signals a multi-lakh-crore capex super-cycle, moving from planning to execution. The 14-month fast-track approval for AM/NS in Andhra Pradesh provides a new, de-risked template for mega-projects.</li>
<li>While execution is accelerating, the sector's profitability hinges on two key variables: managing persistent Chinese imports and securing the massive volume of coking coal required to fuel this expansion.</li>
</ul>


The government's 300 MT crude steel capacity target by 2030 is now in full swing, anchored by ArcelorMittal's newly-cleared INR1.5 lakh crore greenfield project and aggressive brownfield by other players.
This signals a multi-lakh-crore capex super-cycle, moving from planning to execution. The 14-month fast-track approval for AM/NS in Andhra Pradesh provides a new, de-risked template for mega-projects.
While execution is accelerating, the sector's profitability hinges on two key variables: managing persistent Chinese imports and securing the massive volume of coking coal required to fuel this expansion.


Thematic Report: Forging a 300 MT Behemoth as India’s Steel Capex Super-Cycle Accelerates

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Larsen &amp; Toubro: Larsen &amp; Toubro (LT) reported revenue/EBITDA/APAT at INR 679.8/68.1/39.3bn, a miss of 5.4/5.2/6.4%, marked by slower execution in water projects and extended monsoons</li><li>P&amp;M margins stood at 7.8% in Q2FY26 (vs 7.6/7.6% in Q1FY26/Q2FY25)</li><li>Given robust order inflows of INR 2.1trn (+39% YoY) in H1FY26, LT now expects to beat earlier 10% order inflow growth guidance for FY26</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Larsen &amp; Toubro: Larsen &amp; Toubro (LT) reported revenue/EBITDA/APAT at INR 679.8/68.1/39.3bn, a miss of 5.4/5.2/6.4%, marked by slower execution in water projects and extended monsoonsP&amp;M margins stood at 7.8% in Q2FY26 (vs 7.6/7.6% in Q1FY26/Q2FY25)Given robust order inflows of INR 2.1trn (+39% YoY) in H1FY26, LT now expects to beat earlier 10% order inflow growth guidance for FY26Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Larsen & Toubro, Jindal Steel, Shree Cement, PB Fintech

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

<ul>
<li>China’s steel exports have surged to multi-year highs, flooding global markets and forcing a wave of trade-defense actions across Asia.</li>
<li>Weak domestic demand, squeezed margins, and policy shifts have pushed Chinese mills to lean heavily on exports — prompting Beijing to cap output and link cuts to carbon goals.</li>
<li>Clear winners: Integrated Indian producers and Japan/Korea premium mills, which gain pricing power and margin upside as safeguards and curbs tighten supply.</li>
</ul>


China’s steel exports have surged to multi-year highs, flooding global markets and forcing a wave of trade-defense actions across Asia.
Weak domestic demand, squeezed margins, and policy shifts have pushed Chinese mills to lean heavily on exports — prompting Beijing to cap output and link cuts to carbon goals.
Clear winners: Integrated Indian producers and Japan/Korea premium mills, which gain pricing power and margin upside as safeguards and curbs tighten supply.


China’s Steel Curbs + Asian Safeguards: Pricing Tailwinds for Premium Mills

<ul>
<li>ONGC: We maintain our REDUCE rating on ONGC, with a target price of INR 220 as we expect slower ramp-up in oil &amp; gas production</li>
<li>Q1FY26 reported EBITDA at INR ~187bn (+0.2% YoY, -1.8% QoQ) and PAT at INR ~80bn (-10.2% YoY, +24.4% QoQ), both above our estimate due to higher-than-expected crude oil realization. Apollo Hospitals Enterprise: EBITDA (+20% YoY) was 6% ahead of consensus estimates, led by a 15% YoY sales growth</li>
<li>The hospital business grew 11% YoY (ARPP +9% YoY), HealthCo grew by 19% YoY (offline/online sales up 18%/26% YoY) and AHLL grew 19% YoY</li>
</ul>
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


ONGC: We maintain our REDUCE rating on ONGC, with a target price of INR 220 as we expect slower ramp-up in oil &amp; gas production
Q1FY26 reported EBITDA at INR ~187bn (+0.2% YoY, -1.8% QoQ) and PAT at INR ~80bn (-10.2% YoY, +24.4% QoQ), both above our estimate due to higher-than-expected crude oil realization. Apollo Hospitals Enterprise: EBITDA (+20% YoY) was 6% ahead of consensus estimates, led by a 15% YoY sales growth
The hospital business grew 11% YoY (ARPP +9% YoY), HealthCo grew by 19% YoY (offline/online sales up 18%/26% YoY) and AHLL grew 19% YoY

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: ONGC, Apollo Hospitals Enterprise, Jindal Steel..

<ul><li>We continue to remain positive on the Indian steel sector, as it has grown faster than most major economies</li><li>While Chinese steel prices and spreads have failed to recover, the recently-imposed safeguard duties have driven both domestic steel prices and spreads</li><li>Coking coal prices also remain soft, adding to gross margin improvement.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We continue to remain positive on the Indian steel sector, as it has grown faster than most major economiesWhile Chinese steel prices and spreads have failed to recover, the recently-imposed safeguard duties have driven both domestic steel prices and spreadsCoking coal prices also remain soft, adding to gross margin improvement.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Metals (Q1FY26 Results Preview): Steel Prices and Spreads Continue to Trend Up

India

Jindal Steel Limited manufactures steel products. The Company offers steel rails, parallel flange beams and columns, angles and channels, plates, and coils, as well as engages in the power, mining, manufacturing, and infrastructure construction businesses. Jindal Steel serves customers worldwide.

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Jindal Steel (JINDALST IN)

Thematic Report: Forging a 300 MT Behemoth as India’s Steel Capex Super-Cycle Accelerates

Government's ambitious steel capacity target by 2030 gains momentum with ArcelorMittal's massive greenfield project and industry-wide capex super...

Nimish Maheshwari

HSIE Results Daily: Larsen & Toubro, Jindal Steel, Shree Cement, PB Fintech

Larsen & Toubro (LT) reported revenue/EBITDA/APAT at INR 679.8/68.1/39.3bn, a miss of 5.4/5.2/6.4%, marked by slower execution in water projects...

HDFC Securities

China’s Steel Curbs + Asian Safeguards: Pricing Tailwinds for Premium Mills

China's steel exports surge, prompting trade-defense actions; Indian and Japanese/Korean mills benefit from tightening supply.

Rahul Jain

HSIE Results Daily: ONGC, Apollo Hospitals Enterprise, Jindal Steel..

ONGC: We maintain our REDUCE rating on ONGC, with a target price of INR 220 as we expect slower ramp-up in oil & gas production Q1FY26...

HDFC Securities

Metals (Q1FY26 Results Preview): Steel Prices and Spreads Continue to Trend Up

While Chinese steel prices and spreads have failed to recover, the recently-imposed safeguard duties have driven both domestic steel prices and...

HDFC Securities

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Thematic Report: Forging a 300 MT Behemoth as India’s Steel Capex Super-Cycle Accelerates

​Government's ambitious steel capacity target by 2030 gains momentum with ArcelorMittal's massive greenfield project and industry-wide capex super...

Nimish Maheshwari

HSIE Results Daily: Larsen & Toubro, Jindal Steel, Shree Cement, PB Fintech

Larsen & Toubro (LT) reported revenue/EBITDA/APAT at INR 679.8/68.1/39.3bn, a miss of 5.4/5.2/6.4%, marked by slower execution in water projects...

HDFC Securities

China’s Steel Curbs + Asian Safeguards: Pricing Tailwinds for Premium Mills

​China's steel exports surge, prompting trade-defense actions; Indian and Japanese/Korean mills benefit from tightening supply.

Rahul Jain

HSIE Results Daily: ONGC, Apollo Hospitals Enterprise, Jindal Steel..

ONGC: We maintain our REDUCE rating on ONGC, with a target price of INR 220 as we expect slower ramp-up in oil & gas production Q1FY26...

HDFC Securities

Metals (Q1FY26 Results Preview): Steel Prices and Spreads Continue to Trend Up

While Chinese steel prices and spreads have failed to recover, the recently-imposed safeguard duties have driven both domestic steel prices and...

HDFC Securities

Government's ambitious steel capacity target by 2030 gains momentum with ArcelorMittal's massive greenfield project and industry-wide capex super...

China's steel exports surge, prompting trade-defense actions; Indian and Japanese/Korean mills benefit from tightening supply.