Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>FY25 steel production grew 2% YoY to 8.12 MT; adjusted EBITDA stood at Rs9,570 crore with EBITDA/t of Rs12,008; net debt/EBITDA improved to 1.26x.</li>
<li>Major projects including BF2, BOS2, CRM complex, slurry pipeline, and SBPP are targeted for commissioning by FY26-end, expanding steel capacity to 14.45 MTPA.</li>
<li>Near-Term priorities are volume ramp-up, improving cost efficiency through captive resources and logistics, and maintaining strict capital discipline with net debt/EBITDA below 1.5x.</li>
</ul>


FY25 steel production grew 2% YoY to 8.12 MT; adjusted EBITDA stood at Rs9,570 crore with EBITDA/t of Rs12,008; net debt/EBITDA improved to 1.26x.
Major projects including BF2, BOS2, CRM complex, slurry pipeline, and SBPP are targeted for commissioning by FY26-end, expanding steel capacity to 14.45 MTPA.
Near-Term priorities are volume ramp-up, improving cost efficiency through captive resources and logistics, and maintaining strict capital discipline with net debt/EBITDA below 1.5x.


Commissioning Milestones Critical as JSPL Enters Peak Expansion Phase

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>The company is in the final stages of commissioning its INR 31,000 crore capex plan, accompanied by strong promoter buying in recent months</li>
<li>The new capacity is expected to improve margins through deeper backward integration while also expanding its value-added product mix.</li>
<li>With secured fuel, captive power, and value-added downstream capacity, it is poised to emerge as an infrastructure powerhouse. A steel price recovery would further amplify gains.</li>
</ul>


The company is in the final stages of commissioning its INR 31,000 crore capex plan, accompanied by strong promoter buying in recent months
The new capacity is expected to improve margins through deeper backward integration while also expanding its value-added product mix.
With secured fuel, captive power, and value-added downstream capacity, it is poised to emerge as an infrastructure powerhouse. A steel price recovery would further amplify gains.


The Beat Ideas: Jindal Steel & Power, A 31000Cr Mega Capex Plan

<ul>
<li>Strong focus on capacity enhancement. Increasing steelmaking capacity by 65% over the next 3 years to 15.9mt.</li>
<li>Recent margin dip provides attractive entry point. Promoters/insiders have bought into recent decline in stock price</li>
<li>Attractive long-term play on rising domestic steel demand. Low debt levels at &lt;1.4x EBITDA allows for steady capacity addition. </li>
</ul>


Strong focus on capacity enhancement. Increasing steelmaking capacity by 65% over the next 3 years to 15.9mt.
Recent margin dip provides attractive entry point. Promoters/insiders have bought into recent decline in stock price
Attractive long-term play on rising domestic steel demand. Low debt levels at &lt;1.4x EBITDA allows for steady capacity addition. 


Jindal Steel & Power (JSP IN) - Cyclical Downturn Provides Attractive Entry Point

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>We forecast 7 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 10 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 3 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 11 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.</li>
<li>From the new listings, 13 stocks are expected to be added to Large Cap, 5 stocks are expected to be added to Mid Cap, and multiple stocks to Small Cap.</li>
<li>With the review period nearing completion, there could still be more outperformance given the momentum, but we would look to take profit on the stocks as the divergence gets wider.</li>
</ul>


We forecast 7 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 10 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 3 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 11 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.
From the new listings, 13 stocks are expected to be added to Large Cap, 5 stocks are expected to be added to Mid Cap, and multiple stocks to Small Cap.
With the review period nearing completion, there could still be more outperformance given the momentum, but we would look to take profit on the stocks as the divergence gets wider.


AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2025): New Listings Shaking Up the Rankings

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The government's 300 MT crude steel capacity target by 2030 is now in full swing, anchored by ArcelorMittal's newly-cleared INR1.5 lakh crore greenfield project and aggressive brownfield by other players.</li>
<li>This signals a multi-lakh-crore capex super-cycle, moving from planning to execution. The 14-month fast-track approval for AM/NS in Andhra Pradesh provides a new, de-risked template for mega-projects.</li>
<li>While execution is accelerating, the sector's profitability hinges on two key variables: managing persistent Chinese imports and securing the massive volume of coking coal required to fuel this expansion.</li>
</ul>


The government's 300 MT crude steel capacity target by 2030 is now in full swing, anchored by ArcelorMittal's newly-cleared INR1.5 lakh crore greenfield project and aggressive brownfield by other players.
This signals a multi-lakh-crore capex super-cycle, moving from planning to execution. The 14-month fast-track approval for AM/NS in Andhra Pradesh provides a new, de-risked template for mega-projects.
While execution is accelerating, the sector's profitability hinges on two key variables: managing persistent Chinese imports and securing the massive volume of coking coal required to fuel this expansion.


Thematic Report: Forging a 300 MT Behemoth as India’s Steel Capex Super-Cycle Accelerates

India

Jindal Steel Limited manufactures steel products. The Company offers steel rails, parallel flange beams and columns, angles and channels, plates, and coils, as well as engages in the power, mining, manufacturing, and infrastructure construction businesses. Jindal Steel serves customers worldwide.

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Jindal Steel (JINDALST IN)

Commissioning Milestones Critical as JSPL Enters Peak Expansion Phase

FY25 saw 2% growth in steel production to 8.12 MT, with plans to expand capacity to 14.45 MTPA by FY26-end. Priorities include volume ramp-up,...

Rahul Jain

The Beat Ideas: Jindal Steel & Power, A 31000Cr Mega Capex Plan

Company nearing completion of INR 31,000 crore capex plan with strong promoter buying, set to improve margins and emerge as infrastructure...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Jindal Steel & Power (JSP IN) - Cyclical Downturn Provides Attractive Entry Point

Steel company plans to increase capacity by 65% in 3 years, insiders buying on recent dip in stock price, low debt levels make it an attractive...

Rahul Jain

AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2025): New Listings Shaking Up the Rankings

We currently forecast 31 migrations for the AMFI December reclassification. Many IPOs could be added to Large/Mid cap. The forecast upward...

Brian Freitas

Thematic Report: Forging a 300 MT Behemoth as India’s Steel Capex Super-Cycle Accelerates

Government's ambitious steel capacity target by 2030 gains momentum with ArcelorMittal's massive greenfield project and industry-wide capex super...

Nimish Maheshwari

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Commissioning Milestones Critical as JSPL Enters Peak Expansion Phase

​FY25 saw 2% growth in steel production to 8.12 MT, with plans to expand capacity to 14.45 MTPA by FY26-end. Priorities include volume ramp-up,...

Rahul Jain

The Beat Ideas: Jindal Steel & Power, A 31000Cr Mega Capex Plan

​Company nearing completion of INR 31,000 crore capex plan with strong promoter buying, set to improve margins and emerge as infrastructure...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Jindal Steel & Power (JSP IN) - Cyclical Downturn Provides Attractive Entry Point

​Steel company plans to increase capacity by 65% in 3 years, insiders buying on recent dip in stock price, low debt levels make it an attractive...

Rahul Jain

AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2025): New Listings Shaking Up the Rankings

We currently forecast 31 migrations for the AMFI December reclassification. Many IPOs could be added to Large/Mid cap. The forecast upward...

Brian Freitas

Thematic Report: Forging a 300 MT Behemoth as India’s Steel Capex Super-Cycle Accelerates

​Government's ambitious steel capacity target by 2030 gains momentum with ArcelorMittal's massive greenfield project and industry-wide capex super...

Nimish Maheshwari

FY25 saw 2% growth in steel production to 8.12 MT, with plans to expand capacity to 14.45 MTPA by FY26-end. Priorities include volume ramp-up,...

Company nearing completion of INR 31,000 crore capex plan with strong promoter buying, set to improve margins and emerge as infrastructure...

Steel company plans to increase capacity by 65% in 3 years, insiders buying on recent dip in stock price, low debt levels make it an attractive...

Government's ambitious steel capacity target by 2030 gains momentum with ArcelorMittal's massive greenfield project and industry-wide capex super...